Sunday, June 20, 2010

What is the half-life of the National Debt?

Half-life usually refers to how long it takes radioactive elements to decay to half of their previous strength. I am using it to mean how long it takes the debt to double, so it really is the wrong term to use, but it sounds cooler than saying doubling-time.

Mark Year
==== ====
$5T 1995
$5.5T 1998
$6T 2002
$6.5T 2003
$7T 2004
$7.5T 2004
$8T 2005
$8.5T 2006
$9T 2007
$10T 9/2008
$11T 11/2009
$12T 3/2009
$13T 5/2010
$14T 2011
$15T 2011
$16T 2012
$18T 2013
$20T 2014
$22T 2014
$24T 2015

The future projections are my guesstimates. It seems like the half-life is 7 years. So in 2003 the debt was at $6.5T and in 2010 is at $13T. It will reach $26T in 2017, $52T in 2024, and $104T in 2031, assuming hyperinflation doesn't kick in sooner.

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