Friday, July 2, 2010

Projected budget details

Here are more details from my last projection, with some changes. I actually have them all the way through 2031 but I want to focus just on the next few years. (Sorry about the screwed up numbers, there is no good way to present them in HTML, since tables require a huge amount of work and don't show up properly either.)

Category 2009 2010 2011 2012
====== ==== ==== === ====
Revenue 2105 2118 2460 2728

Mandat 2094 2034 2156 2091
Discreti 1237 1375 1401 1443
Interest 187. 209. 244. 298.
-------- ----- ----- ----- -----
Spendng 3518 3618 3801 3832
Deficit -1413 -1500 -1341 -1104
PubDebt 7552 9052 10393 11497

Notes:
(1) The revenue of $2118B in 2010 comes from the CBO estimate of the President's budget.
(2) I get the total Public Debt at 9/30/10 by adding the previous years total and the current year deficit. The public debt does not necessarily equal these two due to gimmicks such as "off-budget" spending. The CBO projects 2 different numbers: 8797 and 9221 and my number of 9052 falls right in the middle. The actual total as of 7/1/10 is 8627, so we will learn shortly which number is closest.
(3) Again in 2011, for Public Debt I get 10393 by adding 9052 and 1341. The CBO gives 2 different estimates, 9785 and 10512 and my number is in the middle.
(4) For revenue in 2012, the CBO gives three different numbers: 2964 (in the baseline), 2808 (in the estimate of the president's budget) and 2728, which comes from the Alternative Fiscal Scenario revenue percent of 17.6% times the estimated GDP for 2012 of 15,500.
(5) For discretionary spending in 2012, the CBO gives 2 different numbers, 1344 and 1334. I seriously doubt that discretionary spending will go DOWN in 2012, so I will use my own number, which is the prior year + 3% to get 1443. (At least it looks similar to the other estimates with lots of 3's and 4's).
(6) For total public debt at the end of 2012, again I add 10393 + 1104 to get 11497. The CBO has number of 10479 and 11579, so this is in the middle although close to the higher number.

This is a good start on a budget projection.

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