In the 7 quarters since 12/31/2008, the national debt has increased by an average of 3.44%/quarter. This is an increase of 14.5%/year. If this were to continue, the numbers quickly become very frightening. If inflation comes back, which seems very likely with the huge quantitative easing going on, the numbers will increase much more quickly, because the entitlement costs will soar and the interest costs will skyrocket. The numbers are in billions.
So what does this mean? At some point relatively soon, the whole system will skyrocket out of control. What is my best guess for when this will happen? Well, if my theory about 10 times revenue being the breaking point is correct, I see this happening sometime in 2017. Revenue in FY 2017 is projected at $3.477 trillion, with national debt at $34.990 trillion.
I've been wrong before and I hope I am wrong here, but this is scary. When I first started this blog, I was projected the endpoint as being in 2022, thus the name of the blog. Then I bumped it to 2028, then I lowered it to 2025. Now I think the end will occur much sooner. Maybe I am being paranoid, but check out the slope on this graph from official federal reserve data:
Update 6/19/2012: This is model D-1 and is discredited, because the debt isn't increasing that fast.