I am so cynical that even a slight improvement is good news. The annualized rate of increase of the national debt has dropped from 14.1% in my last calculation to 12.9% now. The average quarterly increase is 3.07% (based on the timeframe of 6/30/09 to 3/31/11). Using these number, I arrive at the following projections:
9/30/11 15160
9/30/12 17115
9/30/13 19323
9/30/14 21816
9/30/15 24630
9/30/16 27807
9/30/17 31394
9/30/18 35444
9/30/19 40017
9/30/20 45179
9/30/21 51007
So yea, the system won't collapse until 2021, one year later than in my previous projection!
Update: 6/19/2012. This is model D-3, and is still too pessimistic.
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