There is a 46% chance that there will be no deal made by midnight July 31 according to InTrade. Interestingly enough, there is a 22% chance that there will be no deal even by Aug 31.
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Wow, this just jumped to a 60% chance of default, with a 29% chance of no deal by Aug 31. Of course because of low volume it doesn't take much to make this change, but still these are people who have bet a little money on it. If you are certain that there will be a deal in the next two weeks then you could easily double your money.
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