Saturday, December 17, 2011

The 2012 deficit so far

FY2012 started on October 1, 2011.

The CBO projects revenues of 2635 and outlays of 3609, for a deficit of 973.

The OMB projects revenues of 2627 and outlays of 3729, for a deficit of 1,101.

I am projecting revenues of 2624 and outlays of 3913, for a deficit of 1,289.

There is only 2 months of data, but how does it look so far?
Well, there were revenues of 316 and outlays of 553, for a deficit of 237.  Multiplying these numbers by 6 gives revenues of 1896 and outlays of 3318, for a deficit of 1422.

The latest FRED prediction for annualized receipts is 2572.5. The latest FRED prediction for annualized expenditures is 3745.2.  So FRED is predicting a deficit of 1172.7.

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