2012 Deficit to be $1.1 trillion

Now the CBO is projecting that the 2012 deficit will be $1.1 trillion but the 2013 deficit will be much lower (only $700 billion). So we will still spend like drunken sailors until Sept. 30, 2012, but starting Oct. 1, 2012 we will try to sober up.

Just a few months ago I commented that the CBO had projected that starting October 1, 2011 the spending would start to be reined in. Looks like they need another year. Lord, give me chastity but not yet! Any guesses as to whether when the 2012 date approaches they will extend it again?

New projection - slightly better

I did a previous projection showing that the National Debt will increase an average of 14.5% per year. My latest calculations shows that the average rate of increase has slowed slightly from 3.44% per quarter to 3.36% per quarter (based on the time frame of 3/31/2009 to 12/31/2010). The annual increase will slow to 14.1%. Under this calculation, we arrived at the following projections:

9/30/2011 15474
9/30/2012 17656
9/30/2013 20146
9/30/2014 22986
9/30/2015 26227
9/30/2016 29925
9/30/2017 34145
9/30/2018 38959
9/30/2019 44452
9/30/2020 50720

If the government's projections about revenues are correct, and if my theory about 10 times revenue being the breaking point is correct, then the system should be able to stumble along until 2020, when revenues are projected at 4710 with debt at 50720. This is 3 years later than my previous scenario.

Update 6/19/2012:  This is model D-2 and it is also too pessimistic.

A glimpse of the future - Masdar City

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/article-1348558/Norman-Foster-City-future-camels-penguins-cars-dont-drive.html