India at risk for hyperinflation

"Bernholz notes that preceding a case of hyperinflation, government deficits usually amount to more than 20% of government expenditures, and that deficits amounting to 40% or more of government expenditures clearly cannot be maintained.
Of the Top 10 deficit countries, India, the US, Japan, Spain and the UK all exhibit government net borrowing above 20% of government  expenditures. However, Spain does not have its own currency and therefore cannot trigger hyperinflation on its own. The government net borrowing of the Eurozone as a whole amounts to only 11% of total government expenditures.
Unlike the US and the UK, Japan is a creditor nation and not a debtor nation. In fact, Japan has the world's largest net international investment position, while the US is the world's largest net debtor. We think that a creditor nation is less at risk of hyperinflation than a debtor nation, as a debtor nation relies not only on the confidence of domestic creditors, but also of foreign creditors."
--http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ubs-issues-hyperinflation-warning-us-and-uk-calls-it-purely-fiscal-phenomenon

Obviously, hyperinflation is no risk now because of deflation.  But assuming deflation ends, what is the risk?  Is it like 10% within a year?  Or is the risk longer term?

The answer is that the risk is "loss of confidence in the future purchasing power of money", and it can happen at any time.  The canary is gold.  "A sudden rise in the price of gold would be a warning sign that the risk of hyperinflation is increasing, in particular if it went along with a worsening of the fiscal situation in the deficit countries and an easing of monetary policy."

I think that investors have very high confidence in the US and UK.  India, however, is a different matter.  So probably India will have a meltdown first.  Using the USD as a proxy for gold, (but only in the short-term), we see that the ratio of INR to USD has been steadily increasing, from about 44 a year ago to about 55 today.

It seems like their inflation rate should be about 25%/year.  I think any sustained inflation of greater than 3%/month can lead to hyperinflation, because that means prices double in less than 2 years.  However, their actual inflation internally seems to be about 7%/year.

Anyways, this is something to watch.  If a Keynesian endpoint happens, it may hit India first.