Saturday, January 12, 2013

M4 up 1.28% in December

As of 12/31/2012:
M2 = 10,505.5
Public debt = 11,581.5
Fed held = -1,656,9
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Total as of (12/31/2012): 20430.1

This is up 1.28% in December from November's total of 20172.4The increase here is almost entirely in M2, which has been going up about 50 billion/week.  I don't know why M2 is increasing.  With M2 velocity so low, we don't need any more.  Maybe there is an increase in private borrowing due to the ultra-low interest rates.

The increase of 2012 over 2011 was 11.1%.

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The numbers as of 12/31/2011 were:
M2 = 9613.8
Public debt = 10,447.6
Fed held = -1,672.1
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Total as of (12/31/2011): 18389.3

The increase of 2011 over 2010 was 7.1%.
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As of 12/31/2010:
M2 = 8792.6
Public debt = 9,390.5
Fed held =  -1,016.1
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Total as of (12/31/2010): 17167.0

The increase of 2010 over 2009 was 10.7%.
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As of 12/31/2009:

M2 = 8472.9
Public debt = 7,811.0
Fed held =  -776.6
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Total as of 12/31/2009:  15507.3

The increase of 2009 over 2008 was 9.9%.
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As of 12/31/2008:
M2 = 8219.7
Public debt = 6,369.3
Fed held = -476.0
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Total as of 12/31/2008 = 14113.0

The increase of 2008 over 2007 was 19.0%.
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As of 12/31/2007:
M2 = 7474.5
Public debt = 5136.3
Fed held = -754.6
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Total as of 12/31/2007 = 11856.2
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What does this mean?  It means that the money supply must increase by about 1% per month just to stay "even".  That is because money is "leaking out" of the system, which is caused by repayment of private debt.  If the money supply were not increasing, which would be the case if we were on the gold standard, then the economy would be contracting, at least in monetary terms.

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