Friday, November 1, 2013

Quantitative Easing has almost no effect






















The blue line is the month-to-month change in the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet.  The red line is the month-to-month change in the Excess Reserves of banks.  While the blue line is slightly higher than the red line, it is obvious that almost all of the increase in the monetary base goes to excess reserves.  What happens is that banks own treasury bonds on their balance sheets.  The Federal Reserve buys them, so now they have excess reserves on their balance sheets. There is no change except for the debtor - the US Treasury or the Federal Reserve.  They are equivalent except the Treasury pays 2-4% interest and reserves pay only 0.25% interest.

So why do QE then if it has no effect?  To starve the banks of interest.  If you don't have to pay interest or pay back a loan, then you can borrow an infinite amount of money.

So there should be a calculation that excludes excess reserves from the money supply.

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