Truck Sales vs Recessions

Source:  https://mishtalk.com/2016/05/05/class-8-truck-orders-plunge-39-large-truck-sales-vs-recessions/

A peak in heavy weight truck sales is a leading indicator of a recession. They typically peak about 1 to 2 years before a recession starts.  It is difficult to tell from the above chart when the most recent peak was but it appears to be about January 2015. (Truck sales in January 2015 were almost 35,000 and they have never been this high since).  If this is correct, then we can anticipate a recession to start later this year.

See also: http://www.wsj.com/articles/truck-orders-fall-in-april-1462383538
"Last month, trucking fleets ordered just 13,500 Class 8 trucks, the big rigs used on long-haul routes, down 16% from March and 39% from a year earlier. It was the fewest net orders in any April since 2009."

This is a stat that would be worth reviewing every month to see if the trend of lower heavy truck sales continues.