Treasury Rates

Source: https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield

The yield on 1-month T-bills reached 0.38% today.  And the key benchmark rate of 10 years reached 2.37%.  And the 30-year bonds are at 3.02%.

Query: when was the last time the yield was this high? 

On 10/29/2008, the rate for the one-month was at 0.41%.  So this is a record since that time, just over 8 years ago.

On 7/14/2015, the rate for the ten-year was at 2.41%. 

On 12/30/2015, the rate for the thirty-year was 3.04%.  The highest rate during 2015 for the 30-year was 3.25% on 6/26/2015.  Before that, on 1/3/2014 the rate was 3.93%.

$19 trillion, 900 Billion

The national debt is at $19.9 trillion.  It should be at the "magic" $20 trillion mark by Christmas.

Satellite Abandoned In 1967 Mysteriously Comes Back Online

An American satellite abandoned in 1967 suddenly came back online and began transmitting again for the first time in 50 years.  Amateur astronomers first suspected that they’d found the satellite in 2013, but needed years to confirm that it was still occasionally transmitting. The satellite, dubbed LES1, was built by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and launched into space in 1965.

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2016/11/22/satellite-abandoned-in-1967-mysteriously-comes-back-online/

Elections Cause Recessions

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-17/raoul-pal-warns-trump-will-see-recession-2017

Starting in 1960, there is a recession every time the parties change power.
Eisenhower(R) ==> Kennedy(D).  Recession of 1960-61.
Johnson(D) ==> Nixon (R).  Recession of 1969-1970.
Ford(R)  ==> Carter(D).  Recession of 1973-1975.  (It's not really fair to blame Carter for this).
Carter(D) ==> Reagan (R).  Recessions of 1980 and 1981-1982.
Bush(R) ==> Clinton(D).  Recession of 1990-1991.  (It's not really fair to blame Clinton for this).
Clinton (D) ==> Bush (R).  Recession of 2001.
Bush (R) ==> Obama (D).  Recession of 2007-2009.
Obama (D) ==> Trump(R).  Recession of 2017-2018?

Since 1960, every single recession has occurred within a year of an election in which the parties switch power.  An no recession has occurred at any other time.  The list actually goes back all the way to 1910, I just haven't analyzed it further back. (What about the recession of 1957-58?)

There will be a recession next year, guaranteed.

SP Trendline

Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500

The SP 500, after closing down for 8 days in a row, is at 2088.  A trendline on the lowest dips dating back all the way to March 9, 2009 (when it was at 676) shows that there should be support just below 2000 (call it 1975).  So long as it stays above this level, the current correction is just a minor adjustment to the bull market.  No need to panic just yet.

Recession to start October 2017

Assessments of business conditions now and perceptions for the next six months deteriorated significantly, as they did for the jobs market and spending intentions for homes and appliances.
This sentiment index generally peaks between 60% and 70% of the way through the cycle and so if that traditional pattern holds for this one, it would mean bracing for a recession to start any time from October 2017 to May 2018.
--http://business.financialpost.com/investing/investing-pro/david-rosenberg-all-signs-are-flashing-this-market-is-late-in-the-game

Seven Straight Days of Declines

The S+P has now declined for seven days in a row, from Oct. 24 to Nov. 2.   The Dow has declined five days in a row, from Oct. 26 to Nov. 2.   In both cases, the drop hasn't been that much, but it is the trend that is disconcerting. The Dow is at its floor of 17959.  I believe the best case scenario is for it to continue to drop slightly, like a managed decline.

The problem is if investors notice the trend, notice that it has broken through the floor, and then are not sure where it will stabilize, so they panic sell.  But it probably will bounce around a little and stay at the same level until the election.  Then who knows.

If the S+P declines again tomorrow, then it will match its all time losing streak of 8 days from Sept 29, 2008 to Oct. 10, 2008.

===============
Update 11/3/16:  Stocks declined again today, and again by not much.  It does seem like a managed decline.  The S+P is now down for 8 days in a row, matching its all time record.  The Dow is now down 6 days in a row and closed at 17930.

There was a nine day selloff in the S&P in December 1980.

Labor Market Conditions Index

Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FRBLMCI

If this index drops below -10, it almost certainly means a recession has started.  It currently, as of Sept 2016, is at -2.2.  Watch this chart.