2015 was the best year - it's all downhill from there

I seem to remember that 2018 was supposed to have the lowest budget deficit and then it would go up slightly from there.

Well, according to the Monthly Budget Review: Summary for Fiscal Year 2017 , the actual budget deficits were as follows:

The budget deficit for FY2015 was $438 bn, for FY2016 $586 bn, and for FY2017 $666 bn.  2018 will certainly be higher, and in 2019 it will get out of control again.

Social Security Proposes "Immediate And Permanent Reduction" In Benefits

See: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-09/social-security-proposes-immediate-and-permanent-reduction-benefits

According to the 2017 Trustees report, “Trust Fund reserves become depleted in 2035.” They’re practically giving us a date that we can circle on a calendar and mark “End of Social Security.”  The Trustees go on to lightly propose solutions, including an “immediate and permanent reduction” in benefits to all current and future Social Security recipients.” And in case you’re wondering who these whack-job Trustees are, they include the Treasury Secretary of the United States, the Secretary of Health and Human Services, and the Secretary of Labor.  These aren’t just random people.  We’re talking about politicians at the highest levels of government who are telling us that Social Security is running out of money… and calling for an immediate and permanent cut in benefits.

My comments:  2035 is optimistic.  And unfortunately, you can't cut benefits, not enough to make a difference anyway.  Social Security is a social contract, instituted by FDR and re-ratified by Reagan.  It is not something you can change on a whim.

This is a slow-motion train wreck, or as the author puts it, a supernova.  It is going to cause the whole system to blow up.  But we have 13-17 years until it happens.  The best we can do is small incremental changes that will delay the inevitable. 

New prime number discovered

It is  2^77,232,917-1, having 23,249,425 digits.  It is the 50th mersenne prime.
See https://www.mersenne.org/primes/press/M77232917.html

FY2019 is the year everything goes to hell again

Source: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/costestimate/53437-wydenltr.pdf

This is from the CBO.  It predicts that 2019 will have a deficit of $975 bn, up from $689 bn previously predicted.  You know it will really be above $1 trillion.  And furthermore, it will never drop below the trillion-dollar mark again.

This was caused by the Trump tax bill that was just signed. So aren't I a big hypocrite, supporting Trump but also complaining about the deficit?  Yeah.  But my whole thesis is the the system is doomed in any event.  Prior to this, I had forecast that the trillion dollar deficits wouldn't return until 2022.   So, what I am saying is that Trump just caused things to accelerate by about 3 years.  The benefit is that people will get to keep more of their own money, which is a good thing.

We need to start thinking about the economic collapse that will happen sometime in the 2030s and how to prepare for it, and what comes next.  Instead of denying that it will happen.

Dow 25,000

The Dow Jones Industrial Average just hit 25,075 today (Jan 4, 2018).  It first closed above 20,000 on Jan 25, 2017, so it went from 20K to 25K in less than 1 year.