Thursday, January 4, 2018

FY2019 is the year everything goes to hell again





Source: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/costestimate/53437-wydenltr.pdf

This is from the CBO.  It predicts that 2019 will have a deficit of $975 bn, up from $689 bn previously predicted.  You know it will really be above $1 trillion.  And furthermore, it will never drop below the trillion-dollar mark again.

This was caused by the Trump tax bill that was just signed. So aren't I a big hypocrite, supporting Trump but also complaining about the deficit?  Yeah.  But my whole thesis is the the system is doomed in any event.  Prior to this, I had forecast that the trillion dollar deficits wouldn't return until 2022.   So, what I am saying is that Trump just caused things to accelerate by about 3 years.  The benefit is that people will get to keep more of their own money, which is a good thing.

We need to start thinking about the economic collapse that will happen sometime in the 2030s and how to prepare for it, and what comes next.  Instead of denying that it will happen.

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