Ok, here is a theory, that we are at a point in the business cycle that matches the previous one, with a 11 year delay. Let's see if we can prove or disprove it.
DJIA
Oct 9, 2007: DJIA peaks at 14,164.
Jan 26, 2018: DJIA peaks at 26,616. This is about 10.3 years later.
Fed Reserve Rate
June 2006: Fed raises rates for the last time in the cycle to 5.25%. The first cut is in Sept 2007, to 4.75%
June 2018: The Fed projected to raise rates to 2.0%, which I speculate will be the last one, because there won't be enough room to raise it more, with the 10 year at 2.75%. This indicates a 12-year cycle. (On the other hand, it could keep going for several years).
Housing Market
Summer 2005. "The booming housing market halted abruptly in many parts of the United States in late summer of 2005, and as of summer 2006, several markets faced the issues of ballooning inventories, falling prices, and sharply reduced sales volumes." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_housing_market_correction
Summer 2018. It is hard to get numbers, but the refinance index seems to have peaked about Jan. 2018 and applications have declined since then. We haven't seen a peak in the housing market yet, but it seems inevitable with rising rates and decreases in financing. This would indicate a 13-year cycle.
This is obviously still a work in progress. But it seems like housing will cause the next bust, just like in 2007-2008, and this may occur sooner. So keep a tight eye on housing news, specifically when the housing market peaks.
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