Monday, October 29, 2018

National Debt to hit $1 quadrillion by 2093

Read: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-29/disaster-awaits-national-debt-will-be-6-times-size-economy
Which cites: https://reason.com/blog/2018/10/26/a-national-debt-6-times-the-size-of-the
which in turn quotes: http://www.crfb.org/papers/75-year-budget-outlook

Basically the CRFB is using the CBO's numbers but extending them from 30 years to 75 years.  Using the "Alternative Fiscal Scenario", which is actually the most realistic since it assumes the continuation of current policies (but not current laws), the CRFB projects that the national debt will be 600% of GDP by 2093.

I did my own calculation of what that actually means.  If GDP is currently $20.66 trillion (a number I got from the BEA), and it increases by an average of 3% per year, then in 2093 it will be $189.6 trillion.  6 times that is $1137 trillion (and increasing by $33 trillion per year).

So no worries, mate.  The National Debt can keep increasing, the only limit is infinity, right?  And the US government will never ever default, right?  And the promised Social Security payments will always be paid, right?  The US Government is eternal and the National Debt is sacrosanct.

If you have a problem with this analysis than you are a hater and need to go to indoctrination camp until you love Big Brother.

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