Friday, February 19, 2021

Patient Zero

Very early on, numerous indications were given and made public in the Chinese social media that “patient zero” of the COVID-19 infection chain was a young scientist from the “Wuhan Institute of Virology”. Her name is Yanling Huang, born on October 20, 1988. She has been a member of the “Wuhan Institute of Virology” since 2012 and has published at least six scientific papers at this institute address. Since the end of 2019 she has disappeared and her photo and profile have been deleted from the institute's website (as well as her personal website).

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349302406_Studie_zum_Ursprung_der_Coronavirus-Pandemie

Friday, February 12, 2021

CBO Budget and Economic Outlook 2021 to 2031

 https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-02/56970-Outlook.pdf

This is supposedly a forecast of the budget deficits, debt, revenues, and spending for the next 10 years.  It is completely unreliable and will be obsolete within a month when Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus package is passed.  It projects the Debt Held By the Public to be $22,461 at the end of FY 2021.  It is currently $21.750 tn, and by the end of the fiscal year it will likely be above $25 trillion.  It projects inflation at 1-2% for the next 10 years when the actual rate will be closer to 10%.  It projects that the annual deficit will fall to as low as $905 billion in 2024, when the actual number will be likely $3 trillion or more.

If you enjoy reading government propaganda and being lied to, read it.

Wednesday, February 3, 2021

M5 for January 31

M5 is a measure of money that includes M2, plus debt held by the public, less Treasuries owned by the Fed. Here is the current measure:

As of 1/31/21:

M2 (as of 1/18/21) = 19,560.4

Public Debt (as of 1/31/21) = 21,749.2

Feb Held (as of 1/27/21) = -4,766.1

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Total = 36,543.5

 On 12/31/20, it was at 36,140.5 and on 9/30/20 it was at 35,296.8.  So it is up 403.0 for the month of January and up 1,246.7 fiscal year to date.  This is an annual inflation rate of 10.6%.

Also note that the Public Debt didn't increase that much, from $21.63 trillion to $21.75 trillion. However, there was a sharp drop in Treasury cash, so Treasury is going to have to replenish their cash reserves in the next two months, which will cause the debt to soar.  I expect the debt to hit $22 trillion at least by the end of March.

The financial industrial complex created $403 billion out of thin air in only one month.  What would happen if this happens every month forever, but the rate of change actually increases? The total amount will double every 7 years.  I think the whole system can continue until we get to $1 quadrillion in about 40 years but it can't continue forever.  Anyways that is too much commentary.  I have vowed to only report the facts and not give political opinion.