In February 2021, the Treasury had $246 billion in revenue and outlays of $558 billion for a deficit of $321 billion. Fiscal year to date, the Treasury had $1,434 billion of revenue and outlays of $2,482 billion for a deficit of $1,048 billion. https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-03/57031-MBR.pdf
So the average monthly deficit is about $200 billion, and the deficit for all of fiscal year 2021 should be about $2.4 trillion.
"The growth of the US debt spending is projected to exceed $78 trillion in 2028. The US economy will implode with the rate of debt like this. It is a matter of time before this country implodes into bankruptcy. Everyone seems to think massive debt is meaningless. Until one day, the economy collapses Zimbabwe-style, and they’re affected personally in the worst way. They will keep on kicking the can, as long as possible, or until the payment on the DEBT will exceed the budgets of DOD, Medicare, and Social Security. The guard rails have truly been removed. There is only the desire to spend, borrow and print money. Digital money will change that even more. If they find a limit, the government doesn’t just meet that need; it smashes through it. We used to have these limits in place, but because of the pandemic, they are spending with an excuse. But when the pendulum swings the other way, the Republicans will have to get an even bigger stimulus because who will ever try to do a Billion dollar plan when Trillion-dollar deals are now the norm. The USA never intends to pay the debt. A mother of all wars is what they are planning for. The only way to default. This societal experiment known as “America” is about over, regardless of what they are telling you. The Great Reset means The Collapse of the US Empire." --https://financearmageddon.blogspot.com/2021/03/only-zero-interest-rates-qe-are-keeping.html
I agree with all of the preceding except the $78 trillion in 2028 number. I would like to see the projections on that. My latest calculation is that the public debt should hit $30 trillion in 2028, and with intragovernmental debt about $6 trillion, the total national debt should be about $36 trillion in 2028. (It is currently about $28 trillion). I agree that the US is headed for disaster, but I think the pace may be slower than the above author is projecting.
This was just released by the CBO: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57038
This is complete garbage and gobbledygook, designed to obfuscate rather than enlighten. They state numbers only as a percentage of GDP, not in real numbers, yet they don't state what GDP is every year. The word "trillion" is used only once in the entire document. I can't tell after a quick perusal if they even include the current stimulus bill.
I will give them a tiny bit of credit for this one line in fine print on page 11:
Gross Domestic Product at the End of the Period (Trillions of dollars) 22.0 32.9 46.8 66.0
The four numbers are the estimated GDP in the years 2021, 2031, 2041, and 2051. They don't give any further details. I guess you are supposed to interpolate. There may be other CBO documents that state the estimated GDP but I don't see them referenced here.
I will wait until the current porkulus bill passes in a few days, and the Treasury issues debt to pay for it, which the Fed will buy. So maybe sometime in May or June would be a good time to analyze this and do my own forecast.
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Update: Here is the last GDP forecast, issued by the CBO on Feb 11, 2021
Gross Domestic Product 21,000 21,951 23,082 24,066 25,127 26,249 27,359 28,425 29,506 30,623 31,751 32,933.
Each number is the end of year estimated GDP starting with 2020 and ending with 2031.
M5 is a measure of money that includes M2, plus debt held by the public, less Treasuries owned by the Fed. Here is the current measure:
As of 2/28/21:
M2 (as of 1/1/21) = 19,394.6 (From https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL)
Public Debt (as of 2/28/21) = 21,892.6
Feb Held (as of 2/24/21) = -4,844.6
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Total = 36,442.6
On 1/31/21, this was at 36,543.5 and on 9/30/20 it was at 35,296.8. So it actually dropped 100.9 during February and it is up 1,145.8 fiscal year to date. This is an annual inflation rate of 7.8%.
This actually is a great result and we can call it SUSTAINABLE. However, note that the public debt is about to soar after the next stimulus package comes through. Also the Treasury cash is being depleted so the Treasury isn't really borrowing right now. Also note that the measurement of M2 by the Fed changed since the last time I looked this, so it isn't comparable. I now have to use M2SL instead of M2. So this hides some of the money supply increase. But this will come back in March. So consider February a calm before the storm.
Also, the total National Debt just hit $28 trillion. It hit $27 trillion on 10/1/20, only 5 months ago. And it will quickly hit $30 trillion as soon as the stimulus bill is passed. When was the National Debt at $14 trillion? Sometime in 2010. So that is about a 10.5 year doubling time and that doesn't sound too bad. But just wait until the national debt hits $30 trillion.
