The 2022 Long-Term Budget Outlook

 See https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57971

in CBO’s projections, federal deficits over the 2022–2052 period average 7.3 percent of GDP (more than double the average over the past half-century) and generally grow each year, reaching 11.1 percent of GDP in 2052. That projected growth in total deficits is largely driven by increases in interest costs: Net interest outlays more than quadruple over the period, rising to 7.2 percent of GDP in 2052. Primary deficits—that is, deficits excluding net outlays for interest—grow from 2.3 percent of GDP in 2022 to 3.9 percent in 2052.

Update:  See also The 2021 Long-Term Budget Outlook and 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook

The latest 2022 long-term budget outlook is more favorable than the previous ones.  The long-term outlook shouldn't change much in just one year, so I think it would be interesting to compare these.

New Project Bluebook

 Project Blue Book was the code name for the systematic study of unidentified flying objects by the United States Air Force from March 1952 to its termination on December 17, 1969. 

The new project is called the AARO (All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office).

"The mission of the AARO will be to synchronize efforts across the Department of Defense, and with other U.S. federal departments and agencies, to detect, identify and attribute objects of interest in, on or near military installations, operating areas, training areas, special use airspace and other areas of interest, and, as necessary, to mitigate any associated threats to safety of operations and national security. This includes anomalous, unidentified space, airborne, submerged and transmedium objects."

  https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3100053/dod-announces-the-establishment-of-the-all-domain-anomaly-resolution-office/

"The AARO will serve as the authoritative office of the Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP) and UAP-related activities for the DoD".  UAPs of course is what we are calling UFOs these days.

Is 2022 similar to 1973?

I think before I have made the analogy that Trump is like Nixon, and Biden is like Carter.

What made me think of this now is this article:  David Stockman: How the Fed fostered double-digit inflation…..again!  "We don’t really care if June marked the inflation peak or not. Yesterday’s revelation that wholesale (PPI) commodity prices rose by 23.4% on a Y/Y basis in June is the far more important data point. The only competitor during the past three-quarters century was the very same 23.4% Y/Y gain registered in November 1974 on the heels of the Arab oil embargo and the Fed’s money-pumping spree during Nixon’s last years in office."

Look at the stock market crash of 1973-1974.  "In the 694 days between 11 January 1973 and 6 December 1974, the New York Stock Exchange's Dow Jones Industrial Average benchmark suffered the seventh-worst bear market in its history, losing over 45% of its value."

The current crash also started in January.  On January 3, 2022, the DJIA reached its all time high of 36,800 and it has declined about 13% since then.

The 1973-1974 recession lasted from November 1973 to March 1975.  We know a recession is coming we don't know when (or if it has already started).  But if there is a 49 year cycle, then we can expect a recession to begin in November 2022 and last until March 2024.  And of course, a recession means that the Treasury will issue trillions in new debt and the Fed will print trillions of new electronic dollars, which will mean more inflation.

Let's look at inflation rates in the 1970s.  The 1973 inflation rate was 6.22%.  The 1974 rate was 11.04%, and the 1975 rate was 9.13%.  The 2022 inflation rate is currently at 9.1%.   

I think I proved my point.  The 70s are back, baby.  Are there any other parallels, like in cultural trends?  

Deficit of $88 Billion in June 2022

 https://www.cbo.gov/system/files?file=2022-07/58219-MBR.pdf

The federal government incurred a deficit of $88 billion in June 2022, CBO estimates— $86 billion less than the deficit recorded last June. 

The federal budget deficit was $514 billion in the first nine months of fiscal year 2022 (that is, from October 2021 through June 2022), the Congressional Budget Office estimates. That amount is less than one-quarter of the $2.2 trillion shortfall recorded during the same period in 2021. Revenues were $779 billion (or 25 percent) higher and outlays were $945 billion (or 18 percent) lower than during the same period a year ago. 

When a recession is not a recession

 Read: https://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly/2022/07/05/already-in-recession-close-but-not-quite-in-july-2022/

The Bureau of Economic Analysis just announced that GDP dropped 1.6% in the 1st quarter of 2022.  The GDPNow model of the Atlanta Fed estimated that real GDP growth declined 2.1% in the 2nd quarter of 2022.  Two quarters of declines in GDP means that we are in a recession, right?

Not so fast.  We aren't in a recession until "Simon" says.  In this case, Simon is the National Bureau of Economic Research, and until they officially say so, there is no recession.  They wait until a recession is almost over before retroactively declaring that it occurred.  So they won't say for another 6 to 12 months.  

So don't worry, be happy.  We aren't officially in a recession.