The Bureau of Economic Analysis just announced that GDP dropped 1.6% in the 1st quarter of 2022. The GDPNow model of the Atlanta Fed estimated that real GDP growth declined 2.1% in the 2nd quarter of 2022. Two quarters of declines in GDP means that we are in a recession, right?
Not so fast. We aren't in a recession until "Simon" says. In this case, Simon is the National Bureau of Economic Research, and until they officially say so, there is no recession. They wait until a recession is almost over before retroactively declaring that it occurred. So they won't say for another 6 to 12 months.
So don't worry, be happy. We aren't officially in a recession.
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