Monday, September 25, 2023

Massive hidden losses at megabanks

 The megabanks (which is what I call the too-big-to-fail banks) bought trillions of low-interest Treasury securities in 2020 and 2021. Then the Fed started raising the interest rates from 0% in March 2022 to 5.25% in June 2023.  See "The Perfect Storm Hits Big Banks".  The banks have at least $500 billion in unrealized losses.  But, no problem you say, they can just keep them until maturity.  But they also have deposit flight, which may require them to sell securities to raise capital.  So the banking crisis which started with Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank is not over.  But the megabanks are too big to fail, so I think the Fed will be forced to step in and purchase some of these securities at face value, thus covering the losses.

Update:  Bank of America has unrealized losses on its hold-to-maturity bond portfolio of at least $100 billion and possibly as much as $135 billion. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/jpmorgan-bond-losses-hit-40-billion-bank-of-america-s-should-be-more/ar-AA1iaRAk

Update 2:

Moody's estimated last month that US financial institutions had racked up $650 billion worth of paper losses on their portfolios by September 30 — up 15% from June 30. The ratings agency's data still doesn't account for a hellish October where the longer-term collapse in bond prices spiraled into one of the worst routs in market history. These "losses" are not the same as debt, however, which describes actual borrowings that need to be repaid.  Bank of America is the big lender worst affected by the crash in bond prices, having disclosed a potential $130 billion hole in its balance sheet last month. The other "Big Four" banks — Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo — have also racked up unrealized losses in the tens of billions, according to their second- and third-quarter earnings reports.

 https://uk.style.yahoo.com/bond-market-crash-leaves-big-211843623.html

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