More Smith Family Adventures

 

Source: https://www.mmted.org/smithfamily/

Hey kids, read this cartoon to be entertained and propagandized.  The government can create money just as easily as pressing a button!  (Just don't ask why we need to pay taxes).

The arrest of Richard Medhurst

Richard Medhurst is a British journalist who has reported on Julian Assange and the war in Gaza. 

Read: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/pcr-western-world-has-succumbed-tyranny

My name is Richard Thomas Medhurst. I am an internationally accredited journalist from the United Kingdom. On Thursday, as I landed in London Heathrow airport, I was immediately escorted off the plane by 6 police officers who were waiting for me at the entrance of the aircraft. They arrested me—not detained—but arrested me under Section 12 of the Terrorism Act of 2000 and accused me of allegedly “expressing an opinion or belief that is supportive of a proscribed organization” but wouldn’t explain what this meant.

This is precisely the danger and absurdity of the Terrorism Act that I have always sought to impress upon the public, long before I ever became a victim of it myself. It is out of control and has no place in a democracy. Counter terrorism laws should be used to fight actual terrorism, not journalism. We cannot call ourselves a democracy as long as reporters are dragged off of planes and detained and treated like murderers.

2023 Financial Report of the United States Government

 https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2023/02-15-2024-FR-(Final).pdf

This was issued on February 15, but I haven't noticed it this year.  The key thing I notice is accrued liabilities of $14.3 trillion for Federal Employee & Veteran Benefits Payable.  

 The total liabilities as of 9/30/23 were $42.9 trillion.  Compare this to the National Debt of $33.2 trillion as of 9/30/23. The National Debt includes the Intragovernmental Holdings of $6.8 trillion (as of 9/30/23) but excludes other liabilities.  The Total Liabilities on the Balance Sheet includes the $14.3 trillion for FEVBP plus another $2.2 trillion for other, but excludes the Intragovernmental Holdings.

The projections based on this Financial Report’s assumptions indicate that current policy is not sustainable. The debt-to-GDP ratio was approximately 97 percent at the end of 2023, which is similar to (but slightly above) the debt-to-GDP ratio at the end of FY 2022. If current policy is left unchanged, the projections show the debt-to-GDP ratio will be approximately 100 percent in 2024, exceed 200 percent by 2047 and reach 531 percent in 2098. For comparison, under the 2022 projections, the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeded 200 percent one year earlier in 2046 and reached 566 percent in 2097.

So there it is, 200% is the ratio to use and this will be exceeded in 2047.  We have 23 years left before the whole thing blows up.

The US government has to start paying for things again

 This is a pretty good article by Vox: https://www.vox.com/policy/367278/us-national-debt-gdp-government-inflation-solutions-recession

Smetters and his colleague Jagadeesh Gokhale have after extensive modeling concluded that if US debt held by the public exceeds 200 percent of GDP, we’ll be entering a phase where no amount of tax hikes or spending cuts will be sufficient to avoid default. We’ll either have to explicitly say we will not pay back all our debt, or else inflate it away, both of which would have massive negative consequences for American workers and consumers. They estimate that the US will reach this point in about 20 years.

Note: I have used a 150% of GDP.  I am ok with using 200% of GDP so long as it includes other liabilities, not just the public marketable debt.

The Public Debt hits $28 Trillion

 On 8/13/2024, the Debt to the Public hit  $28,017,164,049,453.46.

One year prior on 8/31/2023, the Debt to the Public hit  $26,044,050,577,584.54.

One year prior to that, on 8/9/2022, it hit $24,027,688,178,378.89.

Slightly more than one year prior to that, on 4/29/21, it hit  $22,056,055,138,417.67.

Slightly less than one year prior to that, on 6/3/2020, it hit $20,031,292,630,338.74.

Are you noticing a pattern?  So we should hit $30 trillion in August of 2025 and $32 trillion in August of 2026 and so forth.

When did the public debt first hit $14 trillion? On 12/31/14.  So the doubling time is slightly less than 10 years.  So in 2034, this should hit $56 trillion.

===============

GDP is now $28.6 trillion, so the debt to GDP ratio is 97.9%.

One year ago, debt to the public was $26 trillion and GDP was $26.8 trillion, so the ratio then was 97.0%.  So it increased 0.9% in one year.  

The Magical Money Tree will cure the recession

 

Hey kids, a new season of The Smith Family has arrived.  Learn all about how when a recession hits, the solution is for the government to spend lots of money and go deeper into debt.  Because money really does grow on a magical tree!  You can borrow as much as you want and it never has to be paid back!

The deficit in July 2024 was $242 Billion

 The deficit in July 2024 was $242 billion, CBO estimates—compared with a $221 billion deficit recorded in July 2023.  The federal budget deficit was $1.5 trillion [actually $1,510 billion] in the first 10 months of fiscal year 2024, the Congressional Budget Office estimates—$103 billion less than the deficit recorded during the same period last fiscal year. Revenues were $397 billion (or 11 percent) higher and outlays were $293 billion (or 6 percent) higher from October through July than they were during the same period in fiscal year 2023. https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-08/60479-MBR.pdf

Net Interest in July 2024 was $82 billion (782 - 705), up from $68 billion in July 2023.

On 7/31/2024, the national debt was $35.095 trillion, up from $32.61 trillion on 7/31/2023, so it increased 7.6% in one year.

The Federal Reserve now has a deficit of $186.3 billion (as of 7/31/24) compared to $178.5 billion (as of 6/26/24), an increase of $7.8 billion for the month.  See https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RESPPLLOPNWW  This is crazy - the Fed has phantom assets on their books and is paying interest to finance them.

Poor little rich kid

Guy buys a Porsche Taycan, because he loves Porsches, and EVs are the future.  Brand new, the vehicle was $200k, but he gets it used as a 2021 (with only 6k miles), and pays "only" $110k.  He brings it to the shop to fix something else and they notice a tiny dent on the underside.  It damaged the battery, and it will cost $72k to fix, thus totalling the car.  Poor guy.

https://www.taycanforum.com/forum/threads/underbody-protection-panel-damaged-batteries-and-coolant-lines-need-inspection-72-5k-replacement-labor-cost-dealership-is-tom-wood-in-indiana.20407/

Update:  It will only cost him $44k to replace the battery, and it is covered by insurance.  His premiums are probably going to go up.