GDP is now $30.0 Trillion

 See https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2025-advance-estimate

The BEA headline says that GDP decreased by 0.3% but if you look at the actual data by clicking on "key source data and assumptions" it shows that Gross Domestic Product for 2025Q1 is 29,977.6, up from 29,723.9 in 2024Q4.

The ratio of Debt to the Public ($28.9 trillion as of 3/31/25) to GDP ($30.0 trillion) is now 96.3%. One year ago, the ratio was 97.0%, so this has decreased.  Over that time the GDP increased $1.7 trillion, and Debt to the Public increased by $1.4 trillion (from $27.5 trillion to $28.9 trillion).

What about 2 years ago?  On 3/31/2023, debt to the public was $24.7 trillion and GDP for 1Q 2023 was $26.5 trillion.  So the ratio then was 93.2%.  So this ratio has increased 3.1% over the past 2 years.

I like the trend.  I think we really have to wait until the 3rd quarter 2025, after the debt ceiling has been lifted and see what the ratio is then.

Top Cities in the World 2025 Edition

 For the first 50 cities, this is ranked by the number of Millionaires the city has, from this source: https://www.henleyglobal.com/publications/wealthiest-cities-2025/top-50-cities-millionaires

I combined Shenzhen and Guangzhou.

For the next 50, this is ranked by GDP from this source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_GDP 

1. New York City 384,500
2. San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose 342,400
3. Tokyo 292,300
4. Singapore 242,400
5. Los Angeles-Orange County-Riverside-San Bernadino 220,600
6. London 215,700
7. Washington DC-Baltimore MD US, 200,000 estimate
8. Paris 160,100
9. Hong Kong 154,900
10. Sydney 152,900
11. Chicago 127,100
12. Milan 115,000
13. Beijing-Tianjin, China 114,300
14. Osaka-Kyoto-Kobe, Japan, 112,200
15. Shanghai-Suzhou, China 110,500
16. Toronto 108,400
17. Melbourne Australia 94,000
18. Houston TX 81,800
19. Dubai/Sharjah UAE 81,200
20. Frankfurt, Germany, 80,300
21. Zurich Canton, Switzerland, 77,800
22. Guangzhou-Foshan-Dongguan-Shenzhen 75,100
23. Dallas-Fort Worth, US, 72,400
24. Geneva Canton, Switzerland, 70,200
25. Munich, Germany, 69,800
26. Seoul/Incheon, South Korea 66,000
27. Seattle, US, 53,100
28. Rome, Italy, 51,800
29. Mumbai, India, 51,200
30. Vancouver, Canada 46,400
31. Amsterdam, Netherlands, 46,100
32. Boston, US, 45,000
33. Miami, US 38,800
34. Madrid Spain, 34,900
35. Perth, Australia, 34,600
36. Hangzhou, China 32,200
37. Austin TX, US, 31,500
38. Vienna Austria, 31,500
39. Taipei City, Taiwan, 31,400
40. Delhi, India, 31,200
41. Moscow, Russia, 30,000
42. Berlin, Germany, 28,400
43. Brisbane, Australia, 26,400
44. Nice France, 25,500
45. Manchester-Trafford UK, 23,400
46. Stockholm Sweden, 23,100
47. Tel Aviv, Israel, 22,600
48. Dublin, Ireland, 22,300
49. Lisbon, Portugal, 22,200
--------------------------
50. Rhine-Ruhr, Germany (634) 
51. Atlanta GA (571)
52. Philadelphia (558)
53. Chongqing (452) 
54. Phoenix AZ (398)
55. Nagoya/Chukyo, Japan (379)
56. Begaluru India (360)
57. Minneapolis/St Paul MN (351)
58. Mexico City (341)
59. Jakarta, Indonesia (339)
60. Detroit MI (331)
61. São Paulo, Brazil (319)
62. San Diego CA (315)
63. Denver-Aurora-Lakewood CO (312)
64. Stuttgart Germany (295)
65. Dhaka Bangladesh (285)
66. Wuhan China (281) 
67. Abu Dhabi UAE (278)
68. Istanbul Turkey (275)  
69. Hamburg, Germany (261) 
70. Chengdu China (260)
71. Charlotte, NC (256)
72. Busan South Korea (252)
73. Bangkok Thailand (252) 
74. Nanjing China (251)
75. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (244)
76. Tampa/St Petersburg, FL (243)
77. Brussels Belgium (237)
78. Buenos Aires (236) 
79. Ningbo China (234)
80. St Louis MO (227)
81. Qingdao China (222)
82. Kolkata, India (220)
83. Chennai India (219)
84. Portland OR (219)
85. Orlando FL (217)
86. Changsha China (208)
87. Nashville TN (205)
88. Montreal, Canada (203)  
89. Indianapolis, IN (199)
90. Cincinnati OH (199)
91. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (195) 
92. Pittsburg PA (194)
93. Zhengzhou, China (193)
94. Cairo, Egypt (190)
95. Sacramento, CA (190)
96. Hannover Germany (186)
97. Kansas City MO (186)
98. Fukuoka–Kitakyushu Japan (183)
99. Barcelona Spain (183)
100. San Antonio TX (182)

I am not the Antichrist

 

Abdullah Hashem 

I stay away from religion on this blog, but this is too weird not to mention.  This guy named Abdullah Hashem was apparently born (of Egyptian immigrant parents) somewhere in the US on July 27, 1983.  He went to Indiana University-Purdue University in Indianapolis where he studied comparative religion.  He started his own religion called AROPL (Ahmadi Religion of Peace and Light), and he claims to be the successor of the Prophet Mohammed and he also claims to be the successor of St Peter and the true Pope of Rome.

His base of operations keeps changing, from Egypt to Germany to Sweden and now the UK (near Manchester). He has about 300 followers and makes YouTube videos.  In one of his latest ones, he denies being the Antichrist. (He says the United States is the Antichrist).

Reference:   The 'Antichrist' Just Denied It—Then Exposed the REAL One (YouTube)

Official Website of Ahmadi Religion of Peace and Light

Divine Just State (online magazine about the Ahmadi religion)

The Kellogg Map for Ukraine

 

Source: https://www.unz.com/acrooke/the-kellogg-framework-is-a-disaster-for-trump/

The map doesn't make this clear, but the Zaporozhye (spelling?) power plant would be placed under US control.  Also, areas of Zaporozhye and Kherson beyond the contact line, which are already claimed (but not controlled) by Russia today, would remain in Ukrainian control.  Also, Ukraine would only recognize Russian sovereignty over Crimea, not the other four oblasts (Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia), so these would be an open wound.

Do you think either side would go for this?

Pope Pizzaball

Pope Peter Pizzaball?

 I am not Catholic, but I am rooting for Cardinal Pizzaball, soon maybe to be Pope Pizzaball, just because of his awesome name.  He is currently the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem.

https://collegeofcardinalsreport.com/cardinals/pierbattista-pizzaballa/

Gold hits $3400

 

It seems like it only last month that it hit $3000 per ounce.  Remember that it was $1850 per ounce on 10/5/23.

When will it hit $4000?  It seems safe to say by the end of the year.

Democrats grovel before the mighty Bukele

 First is Senator Chris Van Hollen from Maryland.  The Salvadoran government on Wednesday rebuffed Sen. Chris Van Hollen’s (D-Md.) request to meet or speak with a wrongfully deported Maryland man, the senator said, accusing the Trump administration and others of lying about Kilmar Abrego Garcia’s gang ties. Van Hollen said Salvadoran Vice President Félix Ulloa told him the government had no information connecting Abrego Garcia to MS-13 but could not accommodate a visit to the notorious CECOT prison, known by its acronym in Spanish.  https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5252312-van-hollen-abrego-garcia-el-salvador/

But there are more Democrats on the way ready to be humiliated in a virtue signaling ritual.  Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), the No. 4 Senate Democrat, is planning his own trip, according to a person granted anonymity to discuss his travel plans. And in the House, Reps. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.) and Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) said they intend to go to El Salvador “as soon as possible,” as has another Oversight Committee member, Rep. Yassamin Ansari (D-Ariz.). Rep. Delia Ramirez (D-Ill.) mounted another push Wednesday through the House Homeland Security Committee.  https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/16/kilmar-abrego-garcia-congress-el-salvador-00295147

Ley de Emisión de Activos Digitales (LEAD)

The "Ley de Emisión de Activos Digitales" (Law of Issuance Digital Assets) is an El Salvadoran law passed in 2022 to regulate digital assets, including but not limited to cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin.

The English translation is available here: https://cnad.gob.sv/documentation-library/legal-framework/#flipbook-ley-de-activos-digitales-2023-eng/1/ 

The regulating commission is CNAD (National Commission of Digital Assets).

See also: https://gfintegrity.org/changes-to-the-digital-assets-issuance-law-in-el-salvador/

Contempt

Noting that it would benefit from further argument on the issue, the Court pivoted to addressing Plaintiffs’ concerns “about imminent deportation.” Id. at 11. It asked the Government point blank whether there were any “removals under this Proclamation planned . . . in the next 24 or 48 hours.” Id. Government counsel said that he did not know, but that he could “investigate” and “report . . . back.” Id. Plaintiffs’ counsel then interjected that various “sources” had informed him that the two removal flights that were scheduled to depart that afternoon “may have already taken off,” including “during this hearing.” Id. at 12. So, at 5:22 p.m., the Court adjourned the hearing until 6:00 p.m. and directed Government counsel to find out whether the Government was in the process of removing people under the Proclamation. Id. at 13–15. It was. Although the Government has refused to provide the particular details, all evidence suggests that during the short window that the Court was adjourned, two removal flights took off from Harlingen — one around 5:25 p.m. and the other at about 5:45 p.m.

https://ecf.dcd.uscourts.gov/cgi-bin/show_public_doc?2025cv0766-81

Update:  The Trump Administration is appealing.

https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cadc.41957/gov.uscourts.cadc.41957.01208731409.1.pdf

Shortly after the hearing, at 7:25 p.m., the district court issued a minute order provisionally certifying a class and enjoining Defendants “from removing members of such class (not otherwise subject to removal) pursuant to the Proclamation for 14 days or until further Order of the Court.” Critically, the court’s written order did not direct Defendants to turn around planes or to return already-removed aliens.

So the Government is claiming that the Boasberg's order was not effective until it was issued in writing at 7:25 pm on March 15, and by that time the planes had already taken off.

One odd thing that nobody is mentioning is that this was on a Saturday, and the judge was doing an emergency hearing on Saturday night at 6pm.  Why didn't the judge just wait until Monday?

It is also very odd that the judge is threatening contempt even though the US Supreme Court vacated his TRO.  I think Judge Boasberg has overstepped his authority here.

Who is Paolo Ardoino?

 

Paolo Ardoino, President of Tether

Paolo Ardoino.  He was born in Italy, but guess where he lives? El Salvador

The world's coolest dictator

Nayib Bukele Ortez, El Presidente de la Republica de El Salvador

His name is Nayib Armando Bukele Ortez, and he is the most important person in the world right now.

There is a lot to say on this but here is one fact point.

President of El Salvador says he won't return mistakenly deported man to U.S.

El Salvador President Nayib Bukele told reporters during a meeting with President Donald Trump on Monday that he would not return a man the Justice Department said it had mistakenly deported to his country. "How can I return him to the United States? Like if I smuggle him into the United States?" Bukele said, sitting beside Trump in the Oval Office, when asked if he’d return Kilmar Abrego Garcia. "Of course I'm not going to do it. The question is preposterous."

Tether Financial Statements

 From: https://tether.to/ru/transparency/?tab=reports

As of 12/31/2024, Tether had liabilities of $136.6 billion, which is the amount of Tether outstanding.  "Tether tokens issued have been classified as refund liabilities in line with IFRS 9, which are repayable on demand, and are recorded at the contractual redemption value of the tokens."  I don't know what IFRS 9 is, but that is a topic of a different post.  And here are assets.

I like the transparency here.  I think the Federal Reserve has a competitor.

What is the official corporation behind Tether?  Tether Holdings, S.A. de C.V.  And where were they incorporated?  El Salvador.

Tether International is a Salvadoran company registered in El Salvador Commercial Registry and having its registered office in Edificio Torre Futura, Ocina 6, Nivel 11, entre 87 y 89 avenida norte, Colonia Escalón, San Salvador, El Salvador; is a Stablecoin Issuer authorized by the CNAD and Digital Assets Service Provider (DASP) authorized by the CNAD with the Registration Number PSAD – 0028. Tether International is wholly owned by Tether Holdings Sociedad Anonima De Capital Variable (“Tether Holdings” or “Tether Holdings, S.A. de C.V.”) and Tether Operations Sociedad Anonima De Capital Variable (“Tether Operations” or “Tether Operations, S.A. de C.V.”); both incorporated and in effect under the Laws of El Salvador, together with their Affiliates referred to herein as the “Tether Group”). 

https://tether.to/public/Relevant_Information_Document_-_Tether_International,_S.A._de_C.V..pdf

I intend to follow up with more posts about how El Salvador regulates cryptocurrency, and about cyptocurrency lending.

The deficit in March was $163 Billion

 See: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61300/html

FYTD interest was $497 billion, so $95 billion for the month.

The Federal Reserve debt was $225.4 billion as of 3/26/25, so it increased $4.3 billion.

The Treasury General Account balance was $405.8 billion as of 3/31/25, so it decreased about $154 billion.  Since April will be a surplus because of tax revenue, this may last until July before it runs out of money and they need to raise the debt ceiling.

=============

Update: The FYTD (fiscal year to date) deficit is $1.307 trillion, the second highest it has ever been as of March 31, only behind fiscal year 2021. 

In Praise of Tariffs

 

The heart of America has always beat to the rhythm of hammers on steel, the hum of factories, and the pride of craftsmen shaping raw materials into something enduring. For too long, we’ve surrendered that heartbeat to the hollow clatter of foreign assembly lines. We traded our sovereignty, our dignity, and the well-being of our people for the fleeting convenience of cheaply made trinkets. But now, with tariffs reshaping the economic landscape, we stand at the threshold of a rebirth—a return to the essence of what made this nation unstoppable. This isn’t just about economics; it’s about resurrecting the soul of America.  Andrew Torba, Gab

Tether vs the Federal Reserve

 This is based on an article I read a few weeks ago that I can't find.  So take this all with a grain of salt and do your own research.

Could Tether be a competitor for the Dollar, or at least Federal Reserve Notes?  A dollar is just a unit of measurement, and Federal Reserve Notes (the cash you hold in your hand), bank deposits and credit cards are just implementations of it.  Tether is backed by US treasuries, ($126 billion if I remember this correctly), and it earns several billion dollars of interest per year.  The Fed loses money every month (because it is partly invested in Mortgage Backed Securities that only pay about 2% interest), although it can always print more.  

Can you get a bank account in Tether?  Not exactly, you have a wallet, which could get hacked.  With Tether you can either buy and sell Bitcoin (or other cryptocurrencies) or convert it directly to the US dollar.  But you could keep a good chunk of your money in Bitcoin, convert it to Tether and then sell the Tether whenever you need it at a fixed $1 exchange rate.

To be continued ...

Parallels with the 1630s

 Read: https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2025/04/07/neo-iconoclasm/

One could certainly draw a parallel between the division between elitist (“papist” – itself a term synonymous with the modern left’s use of “nazi” or “fascist”) Catholics and Protestants in the 1630s, and the divide between the modern supranational elites and their useful idiots and the growing national populist movements across the western states.  But the more worrying parallel is with the introduction of a new media (the printing press then, social media today) which left the majority (on both sides of the divide) ill-equipped to distinguish between fact and slop.  Take a look at the quote from the Cornishman at the beginning of this post. [“Ill-affected posts which fly abroad in such swarms as are able to cloud the pure air of truth and present a dark ignorance to those who have not the two wings of justice and knowledge to fly above them.”] It was not written yesterday, but in 1641 (cited in Michael Braddick’s God’s Fury, England’s Fire: A New History of the English Civil Wars) and refers to the mushrooming volume of printed religious-political pamphlets of the period. 

Budget Resolution H.Con.Res.14

 It looks like this will pass. See https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-concurrent-resolution/14

If this passes, that would be awesome.  It would set the debt held by the public to $48.6 trillion on 9/30/2034.  I previously projected it would be $56.2 trillion on the same date.

Note that every Democratic Senator voted against this, along with Sen Susan Collins and Sen Rand Paul of Kentucky.  I think Collins voted against it because it didn't raise the debt ceiling enough and Paul voted against it because it raised the debt ceiling too much.

Update (4/7/25): The Senate made changes and sent it back to the House.  I just glanced at it, but it looks like the Senate lowered the numbers.  Like in 2034, Debt Held By the Public would be $43,515,483,000,000 which is about $5 trillion less than the House plan.

Update (4/10/25): The news is reporting that this passed with a compromise bill.  I don't see the numbers on the version that passed but I will probably do a new post with the numbers when I see it, because I am really interested in this.  It is reportedly the Senate version less another $1.5 trillion in cuts. 

Update (4/28/25):  Here is the text of the compromise bill. https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-concurrent-resolution/14/text  The numbers are about $5 trillion less than the above number in 2034.  But upon further reflection I think the whole thing is a joke.  It doesn't have the force of law.  And it will be blown out even this fiscal year which will be over in 5 months.  For FY 2025, it wants Debt Held by the Public to be $29.3 trillion and Public Debt to be $36.5 trillion.  The numbers as of today are $28.9 trillion and $36.2 trillion so we are already within $300 to $400 billion of the proposed limit.  And as soon as the debt ceiling is raised, probably in July or August, the debt will almost immediately go up by $1 trillion to refill the Treasury General Account and to end the extraordinary measures..  So the resolution was just a waste of time and effort.

CBO Projects the Debt of $167 trillion by 2055

 First, read their actual report here: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61270

They don't say anything about the actual number, just the percent of GDP.  I previously projected GDP using forecasts from the Social Security Administration, which use an average nominal increase of 4.2% per year.  So now we can see what the picture should look like 30 years in the future, based entirely on government sources.

  
Year  GDP     % of GDP Debt
====  =====   ======== =====
2025  31,000  100      31,000
2035  46,000  118      54,000
2045  70,000  136      95,000
2055 107,000  156     167,000

I rounded all the numbers to the nearest trillion. What will the interest on $167 trillion be annually? At 4%, it would be $6.7 trillion per year. Do you think this is sustainable? The CBO doesn't.

In CBO’s projections, federal debt, measured in relation to the size of the economy, surpasses its historical peak in 2029. That large and growing debt has significant economic and financial consequences. Over time, it slows economic growth, drives up interest payments to foreign holders of U.S. debt, makes the nation’s fiscal position more vulnerable to an increase in interest rates, heightens the risk of a fiscal crisis, and increases the likelihood of other adverse outcomes.

What adverse outcomes?  They don't say, but either default on the national debt with or hyperinflation.  Probably including a bloody civil war.  Either way, the current system is unsustainable, and most people will lose everything.  When will this happen?  Certainly before 2055.  I last projected 2042, but maybe it could last a few more years.  So somewhere in the range of 2042 to 2054.

Update:  Correction, they do forecast GDP as follows:

2025 30,100
2035 43,900
2045 62,900
2055 88,400

So they are actually projecting debt held by the public to be $138 trillion, not $167 trillion in 2055.  But the warning remains the same - there will be increased likelihood of adverse outcomes.

All foreigners are out to screw us and it’s our job to screw them first

The quote was from John Connally in 1971. 

Trump is therefore not the first President to seek the controlled disintegration of the world economy by means of a devastating blow. Nor is he the first to purposely damage America’s allies to renew and prolong US hegemony. Nor the first who was prepared to hurt Wall Street in the short run in the process of strengthening US capital accumulation in the long term. Nixon had done all that half a century earlier.

Read: https://unherd.com/2025/04/will-liberation-day-transform-the-world/