Saturday, April 5, 2025

Budget Resolution H.Con.Res.14

 It looks like this will pass. See https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-concurrent-resolution/14

















If this passes, that would be awesome.  It would set the debt held by the public to $48.6 trillion on 9/30/2034.  I previously projected it would be $56.2 trillion on the same date.

Note that every Democratic Senator voted against this, along with Sen Susan Collins and Sen Rand Paul of Kentucky.  I think Collins voted against it because it didn't raise the debt ceiling enough and Paul voted against it because it raised the debt ceiling too much.

Update (4/7/25): The Senate made changes and sent it back to the House.  I just glanced at it, but it looks like the Senate lowered the numbers.  Like in 2034, Debt Held By the Public would be $43,515,483,000,000 which is about $5 trillion less than the House plan.

Update (4/10/25): The news is reporting that this passed with a compromise bill.  I don't see the numbers on the version that passed but I will probably do a new post with the numbers when I see it, because I am really interested in this.  It is reportedly the Senate version less another $1.5 trillion in cuts. 

Update (4/28/25):  Here is the text of the compromise bill. https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-concurrent-resolution/14/text  The numbers are about $5 trillion less than the above number in 2034.  But upon further reflection I think the whole thing is a joke.  It doesn't have the force of law.  And it will be blown out even this fiscal year which will be over in 5 months.  For FY 2025, it wants Debt Held by the Public to be $29.3 trillion and Public Debt to be $36.5 trillion.  The numbers as of today are $28.9 trillion and $36.2 trillion so we are already within $300 to $400 billion of the proposed limit.  And as soon as the debt ceiling is raised, probably in July or August, the debt will almost immediately go up by $1 trillion to refill the Treasury General Account and to end the extraordinary measures..  So the resolution was just a waste of time and effort.

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