On 9/2/25, the debt to the public stood at $30,105,889,987,086.45. This was only 2 months after it first hit $29 trillion. But things are not as bad as they seem since some of this was the Treasury refilling its general account.
I have a theory that the balances follow a 2 year pattern (see also) where they increase by $4 trillion, so lets look at the history. The debt to the public first hit $26 trillion on 8/31/2023, which is almost exactly 2 years ago. Then it hit $22 trillion on 4/30/21, (which is a bit more than 2 years), and $17 trillion on 11/7/2019 (which is less than 2 years before that).
So the parallel dates, as I called them before, are 11/7/19, 4/30/21, 8/31/23, and 9/2/25.
So the theory is that even though the debt is rapidly increasing, it is increasing only in a linear fashion and not exponentially.
=====================
When was the debt to the public at $15 trillion? On 2/15/2018, which was only about 7.5 years ago. At the time, I noticed that the debt to the public first hit $7.5 trillion on 9/15/2009, which was about 8.5 years prior. Also at that time, I made a prediction:
If it takes 8.5 years to double, we should be at $30 trillion held by the public on 8/15/2026.
So we beat that by almost an entire year. If the debt to the public is doubling every 8 years, then it should hit $60 trillion about 9/1/2033. (This contradicts the 2 year pattern theory).
====================
The debt to the public should hit $31 trillion about 3/1/26, 6 months from now.
No comments:
Post a Comment