Saturday, February 28, 2026

Projected GDP through 2046

 See this from a year ago at https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2025/02/projected-gdp-through-2040.html

The actual GDP as of 3Q 2025 (9/30/2025) is 31,098.0 trillion (BEA).  I am using numbers from the Social Security trustee report, but they show 30,480 as of the same date, using intermediate assumptions.

To make this simple, I am using the Social Security numbers, but adding $600 billion to them, and then rounding to the nearest hundred billion.  I think the Social Security numbers use a calendar year instead of fiscal year but I am ignoring that.

		SS 2025	Adjust
Year	Prev	GDP	Round	CBO
2025	30,600	30,480	31,100 30,700
2026	31,900	31,754	32,400 32,300
2027	33,200	33,058	33,700 33,700
2028	34,600	34,455	35,100 35,000
2029	36,100	35,907	36,500 36,400
2030	37,600	37,377	38,000 37,700
2031	39,200	38,903	39,500 39,200
2032	40,800	40,497	41,100 40,700
2033	42,500	42,145	42,700 42,200
2034	44,300	43,836	44,400 43,800
2035	46,200	45,586	46,200 45,400
2036	48,100	47,409	48,000 47,100
2037	50,100	49,305	49,900 48,900
2038	52,200	51,277	51,900 50,800
2039	54,400	53,328	53,900 52,700
2040	56,700	55,363	56,000 54,700
2041	59,100	57,578	58,200 56,700
2042	61,600	59,881	60,500 58,900
2043	64,200	62,276	62,900 61,100
2044	66,900	64,767	65,400 63,300
2045	69,700	67,136	67,700 65,700
2046		69,821	70,400 68,100

	CBO
2047    70,500
2048    73,100                       
2049    75,700
2050    78,400
2051    81,200
2052    84,000
2053    87,000
2054    90,100
2055    93,200
2056    96,500

It looks like before that SS was assuming GDP would increase by 4.2% annually, whereas here it is 4%.  So after 2035 the GDP here is less than it was forecasted a year ago.

Update 3/9/26: I added a column for CBO.  This comes from https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-02/57054-2026-02-LTBO-econ.xlsx (tab 3. Econ Vars_Annual Levels, row 9 Nominal GDP).  I will use these numbers because they seem to be more accurate (no need to add $600 billion) and also they extend through 2056.

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