Aftermath 2022 Blog
Amateur speculations on the State of the Economy
Saturday, December 21, 2024
Is a Honda Prologue the same as a Chevy Blazer EV?
Thursday, December 19, 2024
Why Saudi Arabia is Building a $1 Trillion City in the Desert
Today on the Mayan Calendar
I have written about this before I think, but I don't have time to look it up right now. The Mayans used a calendar which had a 52-year cycle. This isn't exactly 52 years because they didn't use leap days, so the cycle is 18,980 days (365 * 52) long.
So what happened 18,980 days ago? It was January 1, 1973. I don't think anything of note happened on that day other than it being the new year. It was just before Nixon's second inauguration, just like now is just before Trump's second inauguration. (I think I have compared Trump to Nixon before).
I have been more focused on the 17-year cycle, which is 1/3 of Mayan cycle. Also, the Mayan cycle is about 6 pi cycles of 3,142 days each. You could also compare the Mayan cycles to the Kondratiev (or Kondratieff) waves.
What happens when the stock market drops 11 days in a row?
Will there be a government shutdown?
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/us-government-shutdown-before-2025
And read this:
In his call Wednesday for Republicans to ditch the negotiated bipartisan short-term spending bill, Trump also demanded that lawmakers increase the debt ceiling — something that hadn't been on the table at all. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-calls-abolishing-debt-ceiling-rcna184820
So yes, the government will shutdown and it probably won't reopen until Trump is inaugurated.
What effect will this have on spending and the debt? None, it will probably make things worse because shutting things down and reopening them has a cost. Also, most government spending is on autopilot (Social Security etc). Government employees will get a paid vacation of a month or more. It will however highlight how useless much of government is.
So I say shutdown it down. Starting a 12:01am on Saturday, December 21.
Could this be the event that starts the recession and causes the Fed to cut rates in an emergency meeting?
Update: There won't be a shutdown. Biden signed the bill which will keep the government funded until March 14, 2025. The bill did not include an increase to the debt ceiling which will come back on Jan 1, 2025. However, the Treasury has enough cash on hand to last probably until June, so this isn't a hard deadline.
Wednesday, December 18, 2024
Fed to cut rates following 17 year pattern in preparation for a financial disaster
Later today, the Fed is expected to cut rates by 0.25% so they are in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Nobody else is commenting on how they are following a pattern from almost exactly 17 years ago.
I'm no Nostradamus but I saw the 17 year cycle coming. In a post I wrote on Feb 26, 2024, I wrote about the 17 year cycle, predicting the rate cut on Sept 18, 2024. The Fed has been following a script since September 2022 to present.
This can not be a coincidence. Even the length of the plateau is almost exactly the same (447 days in 2006-2007 and 452 days in 2023-2024).
Just don't ask what happens next, it is scary. In case you are too young, or forgot, look up the Great Recession. (A recession officially, in retrospect, began on December 1, 2007). I don't think we are in a recession now, but I think one will start right about the time that Trump takes office. I think the Federal Reserve is playing with some black magic, and they are aligning the stars and comets to insure that Trump will face the mother of all financial crises as soon as he is inaugurated.
What do I think will happen next? Well, if you read your history, the Fed did an emergency rate cut of -75 on Tuesday, Jan 22, 2008. I think history will repeat almost exactly, so look for an emergency rate cut of -75 on Tuesday, Jan 28, 2025. I hope nothing happens but I fear that something really bad is about to happen in the next month. I don't know what would make the Fed unexpectedly cut rates, but whatever would make them do that is coming. I don't want to speculate what that would be here, maybe in a later post.
Also look for the Bank of England to cut rates in an identical amount (0.25%) tomorrow, Dec 19. The ECB already cut the rates by 0.25% on Dec 12. Of course it's all coordinated.
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Update: The Bank of England did not cut rates on Dec 19, so I was wrong here.
Monday, December 16, 2024
Tell me about Jonathan Turley
Source: https://chatgpt.com/
I don't even know who Jonathan Turley is. ChatGPT could easily come up with a bland response with the first sentence from his Wikipedia page. Why is he so dangerous? ChatGPT previously defamed him by saying that he was accused of sexual harassment (which he wasn't), and instead of apologizing to him, he was deleted from ChatGPT's brain. ChatGPT is dangerous.
Scott Adams has a theory about drones
https://x.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1868339762563842156
He believes that the UFO sightings over New Jersey are actually drones being trained in preparation for the Drone Wars (like the Clone Wars from Star Wars).
My current drone theory: Drones are the future of warfare. We expect a drone war soon, in Iran or elsewhere. Our supply of drones far exceeds our supply of drone pilots. We need massive training, and fast. ... No other theory explains the need to fly every night and in multiple locations for weeks on end. . . Yet quit at 11 PM every night. My pattern recognition says we’re planning for war, and soon.
Read also: https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/12/invasion-drones-breaking-truth-behind-mystery-drones-new/
Friday, December 13, 2024
More Magical Money Tree Propaganda
Tuesday, December 10, 2024
The November 2024 deficit was $365 billion
The federal government incurred a deficit of $365 billion in November 2024, CBO estimates—$51 billion more than the deficit recorded last November. The federal budget deficit totaled $622 billion in October and November 2024, the first two months of fiscal year 2025, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. That amount is $242 billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last fiscal year. Outlays were $191 billion (or 18 percent) higher, and revenues were $50 billion (or 7 percent) lower. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60844/html
Net interest YTD was $163 billion, and since October interest was $80 billion, November interest was $83 billion. Compare this to November 2023 when interest was $77 billion. This is an increase of 8%.
The national debt as of 11/30/24 was $36.1 trillion compared to $33.9 trillion as of 11/30/23, so this is 6.5% higher.
The Federal Reserve now has a deficit of $210.97 billion as of 11/27/24. See https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RESPPLLOPNWW . This is up from $207 billion as of 10/30/24, so it increased $3.97 billion for the month. This is a slower rate of increase than the past, when this averaged about $7 billion per month.
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Medicare spending is way up. YTD Medicare is $205 billion, up from $102 billion in the same period in fiscal year 2024. The government now spend more on Medicare than defense or on net interest on the debt. There is no explanation of why this has increased 100% from last year.
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The $622 billion YTD deficit is the worst it has ever been including the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. See https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/government-spending-shock-us-budget-deficit-worst-start-year-record
I think the Biden administration is trying to go out with a bang and spend as much money as possible before the cops (Trump and Musk) show up and end the party.
This has a couple of cool charts showing that FY 2025 is starting off much worse than even 2020 and 2021. Just to compare, the FY 2020 deficit was $3.132 trillion, and the FY 2021 deficit was $2.770 trillion.
Will FY 2025 be higher than both of those? Probably not, this is just the revenge of the bitter a-hole bureaucrats who hate America on their way out the door. But if there is a recession and tax revenue slows down, then this could be the worst year, fiscally speaking, in US history.
Saturday, December 7, 2024
Joni Ernst's 22 ways to save $2 Trillion
Joni Ernst, of course, is a Senator from Iowa, and she is working with Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy of DOGE to make government more efficient.
Her 22 steps are here: https://x.com/SenJoniErnst/status/1861173088374718885
The first 5 are:
1. Ghost Workers. The government can save $15.7 billion per year by not leasing office space where nobody works.
2. Audit the IRS. Hundreds of IRS agents are delinquent on their tax, and over 150,000 government workers owe back taxes totalling over $1.5 billion. (Can't they just take the taxes from their paychecks?)
3. Undo Boondoggles. Including $7.5 billion to build EV charging stations (which built 17) and $42 billion to expand rural broadband (which connected nobody).
4. Cancel the California trains. This will save $144 billion.
5. Stop Christmas in September. Government agencies rush to spend money on anything in September to justify their budgets. This will save $53 billion.
And the most interesting one to me:
8. Trillion Dollar Secret Slush Funds. There are over $1.6 trillion in unobligated funds. It is not clear, but apparently the money has already been disbursed by Treasury and is sitting in (off-shore?) bank accounts waiting to be spent. I would like to know more about this.
Update: Here is a document listing the unobligated funds. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/balances_fy2024.pdf
The Department of HUD by itself has $190 billion in unobligated funds. (How about abolishing HUD?). International Assistance Programs have $233 billion.
The State of the States
(Image source: https://www.countryclubprep.com/blogs/fox-tales/the-evolution-of-preppy-a-stylish-journey-from-the-1960s-to-today)
Truth in Accounting publishes an annual report called Financial State of the States. The latest version is here: https://www.truthinaccounting.org/library/doclib/Financial-State-of-the-States-2024.pdf
The states in the best financial shape are: North Dakota, Alaska, Wyoming, Utah, and Tennessee. The states in the worst financial spare are: Connecticut, New Jersey, Illinois, Massachusetts, and California.
I'm going to pick on Connecticut for a minutes because it's hard to beat Illinois. I've never been to Connecticut, but I have a really good image of the place. You can fact check this info later. It's full of rich people, whose kids go to Yale. They all have mansions in the nicest part of NYC, Fairfax County. They are driven to work in Manhattan in limos. They run the insurance companies, and build nuclear submarines, and have yachts and play tennis and croquet and polo and basketball and rugby. They row boats for fun (or is that Boston). The college kids all dress preppy, with white shorts and polo shirts and the girls all wear tennis skirts to show off their tan legs. And they wear sweaters with patterns on them. Every house has a huge green lawn. In the fall, when the leaves change colors it is to beautiful. And in the winter, they ride around in sleighs pulled by horses with bells.
So how could Connecticut be the armpit of the nation, worse than even New Jersey? Because it is so far in debt. The State of the States report says it is in debt $64.9 billion. The report says that this $44,300 per person. (I don't know how this is calculated because 3.6 million people live in the state). Compare this to New York which has slightly higher debt with $74.7 billion but a population of 19.5 million.
Why is Connecticut so much in debt? Most of it is unfunded pensions and retirement health benefits. But this can't be the whole picture. To be updated if I find out anything else.
Monday, December 2, 2024
NATO is incompetent and unnecessary
Read: https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/fat-and-stupid-why-nato-is-good-for
The controversial topic of this post is that NATO is incompetent and unnecessary. It has a budget of about $4 billion (of which the US pays 70%), and employs about 10,000 people. NATO is a way for generals and bureaucrats to pretend to be important.
It is unnecessary because the true defense of Europe is done by the US European Command in Stuttgart, Germany. (The commander of the US European Command, US General Christopher Cavoli, is also the commander of NATO Allied Command Operations). NATO is basically just there to give the US Army permission to operate in Europe.
NATO also has political functions, with two parliamentary bodies, North Atlantic Council, and NATO Parliamentary Assembly, which duplicates the European Union. Members send separate ambassadors (aka Permanent Representatives) to NATO, to the European Union, and to Belgium, all located in Brussels.
The European Union also has its own military, separate from the US European Command and NATO, called the Common Security and Defence Policy, also located in Brussels, with its own budget of $250 billion per year. Also note that Belgium also has its own military, also headquartered in Brussels, but with only 25,000 soldiers.
NATO is incompetent because it doesn't actually do anything. It is a quasi-political organization, and a quasi-military body, but it is incompetent at both.
To be continued ...
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Update: Nov 4
NATO has two separate militaries, Allied Command Operations (www.shape.nato.int), headquartered in Mons, Belgium, and Allied Command Transformation (www.act.nato.int) headquartered in Norfolk, VA.
ACT is totally woke and is promoting all-female teams as a strategic advantage. Because women are so good at war.
Gender is one area that has demonstrated operational advantage to NATO forces. Studies have shown that teams with diverse members generate a wider range of ideas and approaches. For example, according to Ms. Tess Butler, CEO of Ruddy Nice Ltd., the composition of wargaming teams can impact the tactics the team will use, with all female teams acting more often, but more covertly, as compared to all male teams. This diversity of thought delivers a decisive military advantage against NATO’s adversary, Russia, and in the deterrence and defence against all potential threats. Integrating gender perspective into military planning helps create warfighting dilemmas for the enemy. https://www.act.nato.int/article/gender-perspectives-warfighting-advantage/
Commercial Mortgage Delinquencies
Saturday, November 30, 2024
Star Wars vs the Wizard of Oz
- Luke Skywalker grew up on the a moisture farm on the Planet Tatooine with his uncle Owen Lars and aunt Baru.
- Dorothy Gale grew up on a farm in Kansas with her uncle Henry and aunt Em.
- Luke Skywalker's aunt and uncle were killed by Imperial Stormtroopers and their farmhouse burned, forcing him to set off on an adventure.
- Dorothy's aunt and uncle were hiding in the storm cellar when a tornado picks up the house that Dorothy is in and carries her off to Oz
- Luke Skywalker seeks advice from Obi Wan Kenobi.
- Dorothy seeks advice from Professor Marvel
- Luke Skywalker encounters Sand People, also known as Jawas
- Dorothy encounters Munchkins
- Luke has as companions, R2-D2, C3PO (gold colored), Chewbacca, and Han Solo
- Dorothy has as companions, Toto, The Tin Man, The Cowardly Lion, and the Scarecrow
- Star Wars has Darth Vader as a villain, who dresses all in black. He has magic powers, like levitating someone and applying a force choke.
- The Wizard of Oz has the Wicked Witch as a villain, who dresses all in black. She has magic powers, like sending fireballs with her fingers.
- Luke sees a hologram of Princess Leia, asking for help
- Dorothy sees a hologram of the Great and Powerful Oz
- Obi One Kenobi is killed by Darth Vader and his body vanishes, leaving only a robe
- The Wicked Witch of the West dies when Dorothy throws water on her, leaving only her clothes
- At one point in Star Wars, Luke and Han Solo disguise themselves as Stormtroopers
- At one point in the Wizard of Oz, the Tin Man, Cowardly Lion and Scarecrow disguise themselves as guards
- Star Wars ends with an award ceremony
- The Wizard of Oz ends with an award ceremony
- The Empire Strikes back has Cloud City
- The Wizard of Oz has the Emerald City
Jaguar
Transcript: For decades, Jaguar has been more than a name - it has been a symbol, a symbol of artistry and motion of precision crafted not just for the road but for the soul. Each curve each roar of the engine tells a story of relentless pursuit. A pursuit of excellence, of beauty, of power. Born from a legacy that spans generations, Jaguar represents the audacity to to dream Beyond limits. It's the harmony of engineering and emotion - the fusion of performance and elegance. It's not just a car, it's the culmination of passion driven by those who refuse to settle for anything less than extraordinary. It's the embodiment of motion as art where every detail, every line, every sound, has been sculpted with purpose crafted to awaken something deeper in all of us. Every mile in a Jaguar is a testament to what we stand for: courage, innovation, and a profound connection between driver and machine. This isn't just a journey, it's a love affair with the road. Jaguar - where legacy meets the future and passion drives us forward.
My comments: This is the best car commercial I have ever seen. Too bad it's totally fake and Jaguar sucks.
Friday, November 29, 2024
Buy Now Pay Later
There is a new (to me at least) concept in FinTech called Buy Now Pay Later. You can buy pretty much anything and then split it into 4 payments. It is kind of like reverse layaway. The biggest company seems to be AfterPay, but there are a whole slew of these: Affirm, Credova, Klarna, Uplift, Sezzle, Sunbit, Denefits, Zip.co, Quadpay, Payl8r, GoCardless, Clearpay, Paypal, Splitit, Amazon Pay, Zilch, Laybuy, Walmart One, Upgrade. (Also add in things like Best Buy and Home Depot that offer no interest plans as long as they are paid off on time, but then will charge the full deferred interest if it is not). They will charge a fee up front of up to 10%, but claim to be interest-free. They charge hefty late fees and interest on late payments. These are not reported to the credit bureaus unless a person is late. The total balance due on these plans is more than $700 billion, which is phantom debt. These can stop credit card companies and other credit analysts from discovering a person's true financial status.
A sub-category of this is payment for cruises: Princess EZpay, Virgin Voyages Flex Pay, Uplift, Royal Caribbean (Affirm), Carnival Book Now Pay Later, Klarna. You could go on a cruise paying only a small amount up front and without a credit check. It seems risky to the cruise lines, but it is a way to fill cruise ships.
Read: https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/debt-credit-cards/2024/09/23/id/1181421/
Thursday, November 28, 2024
The Bacon Experiment
The Bacon Man, Dan Quibell, explains how he lost 20 lbs in one month eating 2 lbs of bacon per day.
Ukrainian Disinformation
After eight years of unsuccessful attempts to massacre all Russophiles in Donbas, Ukraine decided to attack the Russians in Crimea with the support of NATO and the United States. Unfortunately, Russia pre-empted this operation by invading Ukraine, which immediately began labeling the preemptive and limited Russian operation as “the largest military aggression in Europe since World War II: a large-scale, illegal, and unprovoked invasion.” https://larouchepub.com/other/interviews/2024/5146-why_ukraine_s_war_propaganda_i.html
Wednesday, November 27, 2024
Fifty percent of all Federal employees only work 1 day per month at the office
https://x.com/benaverbook/status/1861511174061240436
The government workforce has been exposed:
• Half never returned to the office after COVID.
• Some show up just one day a month.
• Yet, they still collect full DC-level salaries.
They have Civil Service protection and they are unionized so they are impossible to fire. And when they do show up at the office, they will fly in for a long weekend, show up the last business day of a month, and then the first business day of the following month. Then presumably fly home or go on vacation for two months and repeat. They probably have to check email or do a video chat at least once a day. Oh by the way the average Federal employee salary is over $100,000 per year.
What is the solution? Well, these employees can't be fired. How about name and shame the worst offending agencies, and then put a total freeze on their promotions, pay raises, and hiring for the next 4 years. And make these agencies vacate their empty office space, and cut their budgets.
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Update:
Martin O'Malley, the current SSA Commissioner, resigned effective Nov. 29, 2024, to become the new DNC chairman. However, today, Dec 4, he signed a new deal extending the right of Social Security employees to work from home until 2029. How does that work?
A union representing thousands of federal and government workers landed members a work from home deal ahead of the The American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) reached an agreement with the Social Security Administration (SSA) to protect telework, Bloomberg reported Tuesday, citing messages viewed by the outlet. The updated contract, which affects 42,000 government employees, will allow workers to stay hybrid until 2029. The deal was signed by President Biden's former SSA Commissioner, Martin O’Malley. incoming Trump administration's efforts to force workers to return to office.
How can he sign something binding the government for 5 years if he already resigned? This is a big middle finger to Trump by the deep bureaucracy.