The government realized a surplus of $164 billion in September 2025, CBO estimates; a surplus
of $80 billion was recorded in September 2024. Revenues were $8 billion more this September
than they were last September; outlays decreased by $76 billion. That decline in outlays in
September this year is attributable largely to modifications to the federal student loan program
that were authorized in the 2025 reconciliation act.
The federal budget deficit was $1.8 trillion [$1.809 trillion] in fiscal year 2025, the Congressional Budget Office
estimates, $8 billion less than the shortfall recorded during fiscal year 2024. Revenues increased
by an estimated $308 billion (or 6 percent); increases in collections of individual income taxes
and customs duties were partially offset by a decline in corporate tax receipts. Outlays rose by an
estimated $301 billion (or 4 percent).
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-10/60306-MBR.pdf
Net Interest on the public debt was $1,029 billion for the year and $87 billion for September ($1,029 - $950). Note that net interest was greater than the primary deficit, which was $780 billion.
Spending for Social Security benefits was $1,569 billion for the year, up $121 billion over FY 2024, and an increase of 8%.
The Federal Reserve had an accumulated deficit of $242.3 billion as of 9/24/2025 (the last Wednesday of the month), up $1.7 billion from 8/27/25.
The total National Debt as of 9/30/25 was $37.6 trillion compared to $35.5 trillion as of 9/30/24, an increase of $2.1 trillion or 5.9%. The debt to the public was $30.3 trillion as of 9/30/25 compared to $28.3 trillion as of 9/30/24, an increase of $2.0 trillion or 7.0%.
The debt to the public as a percent of GDP was 100.0%, using GDP as $30.3 trillion as of 7/30/25. (The actual GDP is slightly higher but we won't know the actual number for about another month). The same ratio as of 9/30/24 was 99.0% ($28.3 / $28.6).
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How do these numbers compare to the forecast? (Numbers in trillions and rounded to 1 place)
Forecast tax revenue: $5.2 v $5.2 actual.
Forecast Social Security spending: $1.6 v $1.6 actual
Forecast other spending (x SS and int): $4.5 v. $4.4 actual
Forecast interest: $1.0 v $1.0 actual
Forecast deficit: $1.9 v $1.8 actual
Forecast debt to the public: $30.2 v $30.3 actual
So these were almost exactly correct.
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Actually, these numbers don't appear too bad in the grand scheme of things (if you ignore the price of gold), with the national debt increasing only 5.9% (which has a doubling period of about 12 years). Maybe there is nothing to worry about. The primary deficit is expected to remain below $1 trillion annually until FY 2033. Interest is always a concern, but it will remain below $1.5 trillion per year until FY 2032. Social Security should remain solvent through 2034. Maybe I will put this blog on pause until something big happens, like another great recession. Or a monthly deficit exceeding $300 billion.
There is a lot of stuff going on in the country, but I am trying to stay away from politics and just focus on long-term economic crisis. It looks like there is nothing to worry about until 2032 or 2033. So, goodbye for now until something drastically changes for the worse.
