Has the crash begun?

In mid-June, I posted something about technical indicators stating that a 20% crash would occur if the mid-March lows were breached. The Dow is now at 11588, below the March 16 low of 11613. If this theory is correct, then look for a crash to below 9500 and for it to stay down there until the Fed intervenes with QE3. I could be wrong, I hope I am wrong, but read this article again.