For some reason, banking crises almost always start in September. See: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012/wp12163.pdf
Some historical September dates:
September 23, 1998 - LTCM crash. LTCM was providing returns of 40%
annually when suddenly their economic theories quit working. The Fed
bailed them out, fearing a systemic collapse.
September 11, 2001 - The stock market closed for a week and when it opens, drops 14%.
September 15, 2008 - Lehman Bros collapsed, the stock market quickly
drops 5%, the Fed takes over AIG, and Congress rushes through a $700
billion bailout.
Late September 2008 - Icelandic financial crisis begins
Monday, July 30, 2012
The countries of China
China is an empire composed of several countries, similar to the old USSR. Here are the countries of China. (SAR = Special Administrative Region; SEZ = Special Economic Zone; AR=Autonomous Region). Countries have their own culture, language and history.
1. Taiwan (pop. 23.3 million). Capital: Taipei. Primary language: Mandarin.
2. Hong Kong SAR (pop. 7.1 million). Primary language: Cantonese.
3. Shenzhen SEZ (pop. 10.4 million). Primary language: Mandarin. Adjacent to Hong Kong.
4. Macau SAR (pop. 545,000). Primary language: Cantonese.
5. Zhuhai SEZ (pop. 1.6 million). Primary language: Mandarin. Adjacent to Macau.
6. Shantou SEZ (pop. 5.4 million). Primary language: Teochew. The Chaoshan metropolitan area has 13.9 million people.
7. Xiamen SEZ (pop. 3.5 million). Primary language: Hokkien. Near Taiwan.
8. Hainan SEZ (pop. 8.7 million). Capital: Haikou. Primary language: Hainanese. This is an island off the tip of Guangdong province and near Vietnam.
9. Guangdong Province (except for Shenzhen, Zhuhai and Shantou). Capital: Guangzhou. Language: Cantonese. Pop. 87 million.
10. Northeast China / Manchuria. Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang Provinces. Shares a border with Russia, and North Korea. (Pop. 107 million.). Capital: Changchun. Language: Mandarin. Historically, Manchu was the main language, but it is almost extinct.
11. Inner Mongolia AR. (Pop. 24 million). Capital: Hohhot. Language: Mongolian.
12. Xinjiang Uyghur AR. (Pop. 21.8 million). Capital: Urumqi. Language: Uyghur. In far west China. At 1.6 million sq. km, it is bigger than neighboring Mongolia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
13. Tibet AR (Pop. 3 million). Capital: Lhasa. Language: Tibetan. The Dalai Lama is in exile in India.
14. Ningxia Hui AR (Pop. 6.3 million). Capital: Yinchuan. Language: Mandarin. They are predominantly Muslim.
15. Guangxi Zhuang AR (Pop. 46 million). Capital: Nanning. Language: Southwestern Mandarin, which is a separate language from Mandarin.
16. Shanghai / Zhejiang province / southern Jiangsu province. (Pop. 77 million). Capital: Shanghai. Language: Wu.
17. Fujian province. (Pop. 33.4 million, not including Xiamen). Capital: Fuzhou. Language: Min Dong.
18. Jiangxi province. (Pop. 44.6 million). Capital: Nanchang. Language: Gan.
19. Hunan province. (Pop. 65.7 million). Capital: Changsha. Language: Xiang.
20. Chongqing Municipality. (Pop. 28.8 million). Capital: Chongqing. Language: Sichuanese (Southwestern Mandarin). This is a city-state.
21. China. Remaining area. Capital: Beijing. Language: Mandarin.
1. Taiwan (pop. 23.3 million). Capital: Taipei. Primary language: Mandarin.
2. Hong Kong SAR (pop. 7.1 million). Primary language: Cantonese.
3. Shenzhen SEZ (pop. 10.4 million). Primary language: Mandarin. Adjacent to Hong Kong.
4. Macau SAR (pop. 545,000). Primary language: Cantonese.
5. Zhuhai SEZ (pop. 1.6 million). Primary language: Mandarin. Adjacent to Macau.
6. Shantou SEZ (pop. 5.4 million). Primary language: Teochew. The Chaoshan metropolitan area has 13.9 million people.
7. Xiamen SEZ (pop. 3.5 million). Primary language: Hokkien. Near Taiwan.
8. Hainan SEZ (pop. 8.7 million). Capital: Haikou. Primary language: Hainanese. This is an island off the tip of Guangdong province and near Vietnam.
9. Guangdong Province (except for Shenzhen, Zhuhai and Shantou). Capital: Guangzhou. Language: Cantonese. Pop. 87 million.
10. Northeast China / Manchuria. Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang Provinces. Shares a border with Russia, and North Korea. (Pop. 107 million.). Capital: Changchun. Language: Mandarin. Historically, Manchu was the main language, but it is almost extinct.
11. Inner Mongolia AR. (Pop. 24 million). Capital: Hohhot. Language: Mongolian.
12. Xinjiang Uyghur AR. (Pop. 21.8 million). Capital: Urumqi. Language: Uyghur. In far west China. At 1.6 million sq. km, it is bigger than neighboring Mongolia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
13. Tibet AR (Pop. 3 million). Capital: Lhasa. Language: Tibetan. The Dalai Lama is in exile in India.
14. Ningxia Hui AR (Pop. 6.3 million). Capital: Yinchuan. Language: Mandarin. They are predominantly Muslim.
15. Guangxi Zhuang AR (Pop. 46 million). Capital: Nanning. Language: Southwestern Mandarin, which is a separate language from Mandarin.
16. Shanghai / Zhejiang province / southern Jiangsu province. (Pop. 77 million). Capital: Shanghai. Language: Wu.
17. Fujian province. (Pop. 33.4 million, not including Xiamen). Capital: Fuzhou. Language: Min Dong.
18. Jiangxi province. (Pop. 44.6 million). Capital: Nanchang. Language: Gan.
19. Hunan province. (Pop. 65.7 million). Capital: Changsha. Language: Xiang.
20. Chongqing Municipality. (Pop. 28.8 million). Capital: Chongqing. Language: Sichuanese (Southwestern Mandarin). This is a city-state.
21. China. Remaining area. Capital: Beijing. Language: Mandarin.
Will Greece adopt the US dollar as its currency?
Could Greece leave the EU and become a US colony and adopt the dollar (or rather link it to the dollar)? Could the US "buy" Greece by promising to pay its debts? And then build US army bases all over it to prepare for WWIII? This seems crazy but one guy thinks so. I might be misunderstanding him as he uses lots of British lingo.
"Washington sources told The Slog last night BST that Collyns – a confidante of both Geithner and Stournas – was on a specific mission to impress on Greek Finance bosses the US Treasury’s sincerity in offering Greece “almost unqualified support in the event of a return to the drachma”. The White House is betting on the strong likelihood of Greece becoming formally insolvent before any more bailout monies are available from Berlin-am-Brussels.
Charles Collyns is uniquely placed to deliver the message credibly to the Athens government: he was at the IMF for many years, and is a personal friend of Geithner going back a long way; but significantly, he is also an old classmate and close friend of Yiannis Stournaras himself.
As The Slog reported earlier his year US Government covertly attempted to isolate Greece from the eurozone last March, in a bid to both make the country an important and loyal base for military intervention against enemies in the region, and itself play a beneficial role in the exploitation of Greece’s energy and mineral assets under the Aegean ocean."
--http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/07/29/greece-exclusive-geithner-envoy-assured-athens-of-us-support-on-return-to-drachma-sources/
"Washington sources told The Slog last night BST that Collyns – a confidante of both Geithner and Stournas – was on a specific mission to impress on Greek Finance bosses the US Treasury’s sincerity in offering Greece “almost unqualified support in the event of a return to the drachma”. The White House is betting on the strong likelihood of Greece becoming formally insolvent before any more bailout monies are available from Berlin-am-Brussels.
Charles Collyns is uniquely placed to deliver the message credibly to the Athens government: he was at the IMF for many years, and is a personal friend of Geithner going back a long way; but significantly, he is also an old classmate and close friend of Yiannis Stournaras himself.
As The Slog reported earlier his year US Government covertly attempted to isolate Greece from the eurozone last March, in a bid to both make the country an important and loyal base for military intervention against enemies in the region, and itself play a beneficial role in the exploitation of Greece’s energy and mineral assets under the Aegean ocean."
--http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/07/29/greece-exclusive-geithner-envoy-assured-athens-of-us-support-on-return-to-drachma-sources/
Italy will be the first to go
Six Reasons Why Italy May Exit Before Spain
Here is the bonus seventh point: Italy has enough gold reserves that it could avoid hyperinflation if it left the euro.
- Rise of the Five Star Movement
- 44% of Italians view the euro negatively, only 30% favorably. That is biggest negative spread in the eurozone. In Spain more view the euro positively than negative, albeit by a small 4 percentage point spread.
- A separate poll shows a mere 50% of Italian would vote to keep the euro if given a chance. That is the lowest percentage in the eurozone.
- Italy is too big to bail
- Interest rates have reached a point where Italy will struggle to roll over its debt
- Eurozone Impossible Politics: The Bundesbank said there should be no banking union until there is a fiscal union. Angela Merkel said that there should be no fiscal union until there is political union. And François Hollande said that there should be no political union until there is a banking union.
Here is the bonus seventh point: Italy has enough gold reserves that it could avoid hyperinflation if it left the euro.
Sunday, July 29, 2012
M2 is over $10 trillion
2012-07-16:
10,035.1
Billions of Dollars
I wonder what the doubling time is? M2 hit $5 trillion at the beginning of 2001, so by that measurement it is 11 years. On 7/18/2011, the number was 9233, for an annual growth rate of 8.7%. This shows a doubling of just over 8 years.
So it is fair to say that M2 will be at 20 trillion in July 2021.
I wonder what the doubling time is? M2 hit $5 trillion at the beginning of 2001, so by that measurement it is 11 years. On 7/18/2011, the number was 9233, for an annual growth rate of 8.7%. This shows a doubling of just over 8 years.
So it is fair to say that M2 will be at 20 trillion in July 2021.
The Olympic Seating Farce
See: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2180579/Olympics-2012-Lord-Coe-announces-plans-seats-venues-soldiers-teachers-students.html
The common people can't get tickets at any price to see the sports they love, and the VIPs, who get the tickets for free, can't lower themselves to actually attend the games where they might have to rub shoulders with the common folk. What an absolute joke.
The solution is obvious. Why not allow tickets to be resold, if someone isn't going to use them? Nah, that is too much common sense.
The common people can't get tickets at any price to see the sports they love, and the VIPs, who get the tickets for free, can't lower themselves to actually attend the games where they might have to rub shoulders with the common folk. What an absolute joke.
The solution is obvious. Why not allow tickets to be resold, if someone isn't going to use them? Nah, that is too much common sense.
Saturday, July 28, 2012
Raspberry Pi
This tiny device, about the size of a cell phone and costing only $35, is actually a computer with 256Mb RAM. You need to provide a case to make it more rugged, and then just plug in your mouse, keyboard, power supply, ethernet connection and monitor. Instead of a hard-drive, it has an SD card, just like on a cell phone. The operating system is Raspbian, a version of Linux.
It is not a replacement for a PC or a laptop yet, but if I were Microsoft or Intel, I would be very scared.
Thursday, July 26, 2012
Spain will be the first to go
"Why will Spain exit the eurozone? Because you can’t squeeze blood from a
stone. With a 24% unemployment rate that is rising, and over half of
the young people unemployed, no politician in his right mind—especially a
nationalist—will decide that even more austerity is the cure for the disease. One thing is cutting off the fat—it’s quite another to be cutting to the bone.
For Rajoy and de Guindos, it will be simpler to exit the eurozone, go back to the peseta, and devalue by 20% to 30% right off.
It is always easier for a politician to cut expenditures via devaluation than via nominal spending cuts. Since the Eurocrats won’t allow a 20-30% devaluation of the euro, and since Spain cannot really cut any more or find any more money in the bond markets, then the only thing left for it to do is devalue a currency that it controls:
The New Peseta: Coming to Spain before the end of the year."
--http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2012/04/spain-will-exit-eurozone-firstthis-year.html
===========
"Fourth, it [Spain] is politically secure, with the self-confidence that comes from that. Greece wants to stay in the euro because it locks it into Europe, Ireland because it separates it from Britain, Germany because Europe represents a break with its troubled past, France because the euro boosts its prestige in the world. Spain has none of those issues and can leave if the euro is not working for it.
Fifth, it has bigger horizons as it is able to look outwards to booming Latin America for markets rather than look inwards to flagging Europe."
--http://www.ocnus.net/artman2/publish/Business_1/Why-Spain-Could-Jump-Queue-and-be-First-to-Leave-the-Euro.shtml
For Rajoy and de Guindos, it will be simpler to exit the eurozone, go back to the peseta, and devalue by 20% to 30% right off.
It is always easier for a politician to cut expenditures via devaluation than via nominal spending cuts. Since the Eurocrats won’t allow a 20-30% devaluation of the euro, and since Spain cannot really cut any more or find any more money in the bond markets, then the only thing left for it to do is devalue a currency that it controls:
The New Peseta: Coming to Spain before the end of the year."
--http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2012/04/spain-will-exit-eurozone-firstthis-year.html
===========
"Fourth, it [Spain] is politically secure, with the self-confidence that comes from that. Greece wants to stay in the euro because it locks it into Europe, Ireland because it separates it from Britain, Germany because Europe represents a break with its troubled past, France because the euro boosts its prestige in the world. Spain has none of those issues and can leave if the euro is not working for it.
Fifth, it has bigger horizons as it is able to look outwards to booming Latin America for markets rather than look inwards to flagging Europe."
--http://www.ocnus.net/artman2/publish/Business_1/Why-Spain-Could-Jump-Queue-and-be-First-to-Leave-the-Euro.shtml
Will Finland be the first to leave the Euro?
"In her alliances, Finland regards herself as Scandinavian first and
European second. The other Scandinavians are not in the currency union,
and the richest state, Norway, is not even in the EU. Denmark manages
its currency to maintain an approximate rate against the euro, so why
cannot Finland do the same, without all the liabilities?
Increasingly, public opinion in Finland is that membership of the Eurozone is becoming an unjustifiable burden. The country lacks the historical imperative to pursue European integration and is far more likely to be the first to leave the Eurozone than other candidates frequently mentioned, particularly Germany."
--http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/79275/growing-pressures-likely-blow-eurozone-apart
Increasingly, public opinion in Finland is that membership of the Eurozone is becoming an unjustifiable burden. The country lacks the historical imperative to pursue European integration and is far more likely to be the first to leave the Eurozone than other candidates frequently mentioned, particularly Germany."
--http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/79275/growing-pressures-likely-blow-eurozone-apart
Shanghai as a tax haven?
One banker who wished to remain anonymous says that in the past two
years, as both Germany and Switzerland have debated the potential tax
treaty, he has made millions for German clients who previously kept
their money in Switzerland. "We work with a clientele that prefers not
to pay taxes," is how the banker puts it. The preferred destination for
this wealth is now Singapore, the banker says, with experts advising
against investments in the United Arab Emirates: "Too much drug money,
too many Russians, and in general the unrest in the Arab region has
shown that these are not reliable states."
The banker believes he can also help those who feel their money is not
secure enough even in Singapore. "Banks in Shanghai are largely owned by
the Chinese government," he explains. "That at the very latest is the
end of the line for German tax investigators."
In other words, the risky destination for investors these days is not Shanghai, but Zurich.
--http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/domestic-debate-threatens-german-tax-treaty-with-swizerland-a-846169.html
--http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/domestic-debate-threatens-german-tax-treaty-with-swizerland-a-846169.html
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
Wolf on Max
Max talks about the new "N" word - NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy) - and the financial terrorists. Wolf Richter makes a guest appearance and talks about the "wine bubble". Watch it!
Saturday, July 21, 2012
India at risk for hyperinflation
"Bernholz notes that preceding a case of hyperinflation, government
deficits usually amount to more than 20% of government expenditures, and
that deficits amounting to 40% or more of government expenditures
clearly cannot be maintained.
Of the Top 10 deficit countries, India, the US, Japan, Spain and the UK all exhibit government net borrowing above 20% of government expenditures. However, Spain does not have its own currency and therefore cannot trigger hyperinflation on its own. The government net borrowing of the Eurozone as a whole amounts to only 11% of total government expenditures.
Unlike the US and the UK, Japan is a creditor nation and not a debtor nation. In fact, Japan has the world's largest net international investment position, while the US is the world's largest net debtor. We think that a creditor nation is less at risk of hyperinflation than a debtor nation, as a debtor nation relies not only on the confidence of domestic creditors, but also of foreign creditors."
--http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ubs-issues-hyperinflation-warning-us-and-uk-calls-it-purely-fiscal-phenomenon
Obviously, hyperinflation is no risk now because of deflation. But assuming deflation ends, what is the risk? Is it like 10% within a year? Or is the risk longer term?
The answer is that the risk is "loss of confidence in the future purchasing power of money", and it can happen at any time. The canary is gold. "A sudden rise in the price of gold would be a warning sign that the risk of hyperinflation is increasing, in particular if it went along with a worsening of the fiscal situation in the deficit countries and an easing of monetary policy."
I think that investors have very high confidence in the US and UK. India, however, is a different matter. So probably India will have a meltdown first. Using the USD as a proxy for gold, (but only in the short-term), we see that the ratio of INR to USD has been steadily increasing, from about 44 a year ago to about 55 today.
It seems like their inflation rate should be about 25%/year. I think any sustained inflation of greater than 3%/month can lead to hyperinflation, because that means prices double in less than 2 years. However, their actual inflation internally seems to be about 7%/year.
Anyways, this is something to watch. If a Keynesian endpoint happens, it may hit India first.
Of the Top 10 deficit countries, India, the US, Japan, Spain and the UK all exhibit government net borrowing above 20% of government expenditures. However, Spain does not have its own currency and therefore cannot trigger hyperinflation on its own. The government net borrowing of the Eurozone as a whole amounts to only 11% of total government expenditures.
Unlike the US and the UK, Japan is a creditor nation and not a debtor nation. In fact, Japan has the world's largest net international investment position, while the US is the world's largest net debtor. We think that a creditor nation is less at risk of hyperinflation than a debtor nation, as a debtor nation relies not only on the confidence of domestic creditors, but also of foreign creditors."
--http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ubs-issues-hyperinflation-warning-us-and-uk-calls-it-purely-fiscal-phenomenon
Obviously, hyperinflation is no risk now because of deflation. But assuming deflation ends, what is the risk? Is it like 10% within a year? Or is the risk longer term?
The answer is that the risk is "loss of confidence in the future purchasing power of money", and it can happen at any time. The canary is gold. "A sudden rise in the price of gold would be a warning sign that the risk of hyperinflation is increasing, in particular if it went along with a worsening of the fiscal situation in the deficit countries and an easing of monetary policy."
I think that investors have very high confidence in the US and UK. India, however, is a different matter. So probably India will have a meltdown first. Using the USD as a proxy for gold, (but only in the short-term), we see that the ratio of INR to USD has been steadily increasing, from about 44 a year ago to about 55 today.
It seems like their inflation rate should be about 25%/year. I think any sustained inflation of greater than 3%/month can lead to hyperinflation, because that means prices double in less than 2 years. However, their actual inflation internally seems to be about 7%/year.
Anyways, this is something to watch. If a Keynesian endpoint happens, it may hit India first.
The Adventures of Batman
I am horrified by what happened and mean no disrespect. I am just commenting on the bizarrity of the situation.
"After apparently speaking with law enforcement in Colorado, Gotham City’s Police Commissioner Ray Kelly said when police apprehended Holmes, “He clearly looked like a deranged individual. He had his hair painted red. He said he was “The Joker,” obviously quote “the enemy” of Batman.”
--http://denver.cbslocal.com/2012/07/20/police-shooting-suspect-told-officers-he-was-the-joker/ (I substituted "Gotham" for "New York").
The Aurora chief of police, Dan Oates, had worked for the NYPD for more than 20 years, and still thinks like a New Yorker, obviously.
"After apparently speaking with law enforcement in Colorado, Gotham City’s Police Commissioner Ray Kelly said when police apprehended Holmes, “He clearly looked like a deranged individual. He had his hair painted red. He said he was “The Joker,” obviously quote “the enemy” of Batman.”
--http://denver.cbslocal.com/2012/07/20/police-shooting-suspect-told-officers-he-was-the-joker/ (I substituted "Gotham" for "New York").
The Aurora chief of police, Dan Oates, had worked for the NYPD for more than 20 years, and still thinks like a New Yorker, obviously.
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
Deflation is here
The price of gold was 1889 in September 2011, and 1787 in February, 2012 but is currently about $1590. Until the price of gold goes back up, there is no chance of a hyperinflationary crisis occurring. Which means there is no reason for this blog to be here.
So I am suspending any warnings of a crisis until further notice. But there is still the odd story or two to comment on.
So I am suspending any warnings of a crisis until further notice. But there is still the odd story or two to comment on.
Tuesday, July 17, 2012
Global Civil War within Islam
Read: http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-07-17/words-war
I previously called this WW3, but that isn't quite right. The war is between the Sunnis (led by Saudi Arabia) and the Shiites (led by Iran).
===================
See also: http://www.cnbc.com/id/48768545
"Saudi Arabia has gone on the offensive against Iran to protect its interests. Its involvement in Syria is the first battle in what is going to be a long conflict that will know no frontiers nor limits. Ongoing disorders in the island kingdom of Bahrain since February 2011 have set off alarm bells in Riyadh."
My comments: Syria and Bahrain are fronts in this war. North Korea is an ally of Iran, as both countries seek to develop nuclear weapons. It is not clear where Egypt stands.
I previously called this WW3, but that isn't quite right. The war is between the Sunnis (led by Saudi Arabia) and the Shiites (led by Iran).
===================
See also: http://www.cnbc.com/id/48768545
"Saudi Arabia has gone on the offensive against Iran to protect its interests. Its involvement in Syria is the first battle in what is going to be a long conflict that will know no frontiers nor limits. Ongoing disorders in the island kingdom of Bahrain since February 2011 have set off alarm bells in Riyadh."
My comments: Syria and Bahrain are fronts in this war. North Korea is an ally of Iran, as both countries seek to develop nuclear weapons. It is not clear where Egypt stands.
New CBO Baseline
Well, it says March 2012 so it isn't exactly new, but it is worth a read. It's a lot more optimistic than my numbers, even the Alternative Fiscal Scenario, so hopefully they are somewhat accurate projections.
Sunday, July 15, 2012
The Kennedy Curse
The Kennedy extended family has seen way more than its share of tragedies.
1940 - Joseph P. Kennedy forced to resign in disgrace as Ambassador to Britain after it came out that he was anti-Semitic and had tried to arrange a secret meeting with Adolf Hitler.
1941 - Rosemary Kennedy, older sister of JFK, was permanently incapacitated by a botched lobotomy at the age of 23 and had to be institutionalized. She survived however until 2005 when she died of natural causes at the age of 86.
1944 - Joseph P. Kennedy, Jr., brother of JFK, died in 1944 at the age of 29, when the payload on his bomber prematurely exploded
1944 - William Cavendish when he was killed in action in WWII in 1944, aged 26. He had been married only 4 months earlier to Katherine Kennedy.
1948 - Kathleen A. Kennedy Cavendish, sister of JFK, died in 1948 at the age of 28, in an airplane crash over France. Her companion Lord Peter Wentworth-Fitzwilliam, also died in the crash at the age of 37.
1955 - Jacqueline Kennedy has a miscarriage.
1956 - Arabella Kennedy, daughter of JFK and Jaqueline, born stillborn.
1961 - Joseph Kennedy, patriarch of the family, suffers a stroke that leaves him unable to speak
1962 - Marilyn Monroe, who reportedly had affairs with both JFK and RFK, committed suicide. She was only 36.
1963 - Patrick Bouvier Kennedy, son of JFK and Jaqueline, died at the age of 2 days
1963 - John F. Kennedy, president assassinated in Dallas on Nov. 22, 1963 at the age of 46. Dallas police office J.D. Tippit was killed by Oswald after he shot JFK.
1963 - Lee Harvey Oswald, 24, assassin of JFK, was killed by Jack Ruby two days later.
1964 - Theodore "Ted" Kennedy survived a plane crash that killed the pilot. He was severely injured and spent weeks recovering.
1964 - Mary Pinchot Meyer, who JFK had an affair with, was murdered on Oct. 12, 1964. She may have tried to get JFK to take LSD, as part of a plan by Timothy Leary to avert world-wide nuclear war by introducing members of the Washington establishment to mind altering drugs.
1965 - Dorothy Kilgallen, journalist, and the only person to interview Jack Ruby out of earshot of the deputies, was found dead under suspicious circumstances. Conspiracy theorists believe she was murdered.
1967 - Jack Ruby, killer of Lee Harvey Oswald, dies of lung cancer while awaiting trial.
1968 - David Kennedy, son of Robert F. Kennedy, nearly drowned while swimming in the Pacific Ocean. He was 12 at the time.
1968 - Robert F. Kennedy, brother of JFK, assassinated in Los Angeles at the age of 42
1969 - Ted Kennedy drove a car off a bridge in Chappaquiddick, Mass., killing passenger Mary Jo Kopechne (aged 29). He was 36 and married to Joan Kennedy at the time.
1973 - Alexander S. Onassis. Son of Aristotle Onassis, 2nd husband of Jaqueline Kennedy, and her stepson. He died at the age of 24 in Athens, Greece in a plane crash.
1973 - Joseph P. Kennedy II, son of Robert F. Kennedy, was driving a car that crashed, permanently paralyzing passenger Pam Kelley (girlfriend of brother David Kennedy). She was about 16 at the time.
1973 - Ted Kennedy Jr, son of Ted Kennedy, had his right leg amputated because of bone cancer.
1975 - Martha Moxley, aged 15 was bludgeoned to death with a golf club. The previous evening she had been in the company of Michael and Tommy Skakel (nephews of Robert F. Kennedy).
1975 - Caroline Bouvier Kennedy (daughter of JFK) then 17, was almost killed by a car bomb in London.
1983 - Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. arrested for heroin possession.
1984 - David Kennedy, son of Robert F. Kennedy, died of a drug overdose in Florida. He was 28.
1986 - Patrick J. Kennedy, son of Ted Kennedy, spend time in a drug rehab clinic for cocaine addiction
1988 - Christina Onassis, stepdaughter of Jacqueline Kennedy, dies of drug abuse related heart failure.
1991 - William Kennedy Smith (son of Jean Kennedy Smith), charged with rape, later acquitted.
1994 - Joseph P. Kennedy II divorced Sheila Rauch and was granted an annulment in secret by the Vatican, even though they had been married for 12 years and had twin boys. She didn't discover it until 1996, and wrote a book lambasting the Vatican. The annulment was reversed in 2005.
1994 - Jaqueline Bouvier Kennedy Onassis, died in 1994 at the age of 64 of cancer
1997 - Michael Kennedy, son of Robert F Kennedy, killed in a skiing accident at Aspen, Colorado at the age of 39. He had been having an affair with his babysitter since she was 14, although other sources claim that he waited until she was 16 to bed her.
1997 - June Verrochi, mother of the babysitter Michael Kennedy had been having an affair with, attempts suicide.
1999 - JFK Jr., son of JFK and Jaqueline, died in a plane crash with his wife Carolyn Bessette (aged 33), and sister-in-law Lauren Bessette (aged 35), in 1999 at the age of 38. It was almost exactly 30 years, and in the same area, where his uncle drove his car off a bridge that killed the passenger. [For conspiracy theorists, he was planning on running for a Senate seat in New York before he died. Hillary Clinton won the seat in November 2000.]
2002 - Michael Skakel, nephew of Robert F. Kennedy, was finally convicted of the murder of 15-year old Martha Moxley in 1975. His cousin, attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr, insisted that he was innocent.
2003 - Kara Kennedy, daughter of Ted Kennedy, is treated for lung cancer.
2005 - Joan Kennedy, first wife of Ted Kennedy, is treated for breast cancer. She become an alcoholic after the Chappaquiddick incident.
2006 - Patrick Kennedy, son of Ted Kennedy, was involved in a car crash while intoxicated, that thankfully killed no one.
2006 - Ted Kennedy was aboard a plane that was struck by lightning, but no one was injured.
2009 - Ted Kennedy died of a brain tumor at the age of 77.
2011 - Kara Anne Kennedy, daughter of Ted Kennedy, died of a heart attack at a health club at the age of 51.
2012 - Mary Richardson Kennedy, wife of Robert F. Kennedy Jr, hanged herself at her mansion in New York. She was 52.
1940 - Joseph P. Kennedy forced to resign in disgrace as Ambassador to Britain after it came out that he was anti-Semitic and had tried to arrange a secret meeting with Adolf Hitler.
1941 - Rosemary Kennedy, older sister of JFK, was permanently incapacitated by a botched lobotomy at the age of 23 and had to be institutionalized. She survived however until 2005 when she died of natural causes at the age of 86.
1944 - Joseph P. Kennedy, Jr., brother of JFK, died in 1944 at the age of 29, when the payload on his bomber prematurely exploded
1944 - William Cavendish when he was killed in action in WWII in 1944, aged 26. He had been married only 4 months earlier to Katherine Kennedy.
1948 - Kathleen A. Kennedy Cavendish, sister of JFK, died in 1948 at the age of 28, in an airplane crash over France. Her companion Lord Peter Wentworth-Fitzwilliam, also died in the crash at the age of 37.
1955 - Jacqueline Kennedy has a miscarriage.
1956 - Arabella Kennedy, daughter of JFK and Jaqueline, born stillborn.
1961 - Joseph Kennedy, patriarch of the family, suffers a stroke that leaves him unable to speak
1962 - Marilyn Monroe, who reportedly had affairs with both JFK and RFK, committed suicide. She was only 36.
1963 - Patrick Bouvier Kennedy, son of JFK and Jaqueline, died at the age of 2 days
1963 - John F. Kennedy, president assassinated in Dallas on Nov. 22, 1963 at the age of 46. Dallas police office J.D. Tippit was killed by Oswald after he shot JFK.
1963 - Lee Harvey Oswald, 24, assassin of JFK, was killed by Jack Ruby two days later.
1964 - Theodore "Ted" Kennedy survived a plane crash that killed the pilot. He was severely injured and spent weeks recovering.
1964 - Mary Pinchot Meyer, who JFK had an affair with, was murdered on Oct. 12, 1964. She may have tried to get JFK to take LSD, as part of a plan by Timothy Leary to avert world-wide nuclear war by introducing members of the Washington establishment to mind altering drugs.
1965 - Dorothy Kilgallen, journalist, and the only person to interview Jack Ruby out of earshot of the deputies, was found dead under suspicious circumstances. Conspiracy theorists believe she was murdered.
1967 - Jack Ruby, killer of Lee Harvey Oswald, dies of lung cancer while awaiting trial.
1968 - David Kennedy, son of Robert F. Kennedy, nearly drowned while swimming in the Pacific Ocean. He was 12 at the time.
1968 - Robert F. Kennedy, brother of JFK, assassinated in Los Angeles at the age of 42
1969 - Ted Kennedy drove a car off a bridge in Chappaquiddick, Mass., killing passenger Mary Jo Kopechne (aged 29). He was 36 and married to Joan Kennedy at the time.
1973 - Alexander S. Onassis. Son of Aristotle Onassis, 2nd husband of Jaqueline Kennedy, and her stepson. He died at the age of 24 in Athens, Greece in a plane crash.
1973 - Joseph P. Kennedy II, son of Robert F. Kennedy, was driving a car that crashed, permanently paralyzing passenger Pam Kelley (girlfriend of brother David Kennedy). She was about 16 at the time.
1973 - Ted Kennedy Jr, son of Ted Kennedy, had his right leg amputated because of bone cancer.
1975 - Martha Moxley, aged 15 was bludgeoned to death with a golf club. The previous evening she had been in the company of Michael and Tommy Skakel (nephews of Robert F. Kennedy).
1975 - Caroline Bouvier Kennedy (daughter of JFK) then 17, was almost killed by a car bomb in London.
1983 - Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. arrested for heroin possession.
1984 - David Kennedy, son of Robert F. Kennedy, died of a drug overdose in Florida. He was 28.
1986 - Patrick J. Kennedy, son of Ted Kennedy, spend time in a drug rehab clinic for cocaine addiction
1988 - Christina Onassis, stepdaughter of Jacqueline Kennedy, dies of drug abuse related heart failure.
1991 - William Kennedy Smith (son of Jean Kennedy Smith), charged with rape, later acquitted.
1994 - Joseph P. Kennedy II divorced Sheila Rauch and was granted an annulment in secret by the Vatican, even though they had been married for 12 years and had twin boys. She didn't discover it until 1996, and wrote a book lambasting the Vatican. The annulment was reversed in 2005.
1994 - Jaqueline Bouvier Kennedy Onassis, died in 1994 at the age of 64 of cancer
1997 - Michael Kennedy, son of Robert F Kennedy, killed in a skiing accident at Aspen, Colorado at the age of 39. He had been having an affair with his babysitter since she was 14, although other sources claim that he waited until she was 16 to bed her.
1997 - June Verrochi, mother of the babysitter Michael Kennedy had been having an affair with, attempts suicide.
1999 - JFK Jr., son of JFK and Jaqueline, died in a plane crash with his wife Carolyn Bessette (aged 33), and sister-in-law Lauren Bessette (aged 35), in 1999 at the age of 38. It was almost exactly 30 years, and in the same area, where his uncle drove his car off a bridge that killed the passenger. [For conspiracy theorists, he was planning on running for a Senate seat in New York before he died. Hillary Clinton won the seat in November 2000.]
2002 - Michael Skakel, nephew of Robert F. Kennedy, was finally convicted of the murder of 15-year old Martha Moxley in 1975. His cousin, attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr, insisted that he was innocent.
2003 - Kara Kennedy, daughter of Ted Kennedy, is treated for lung cancer.
2005 - Joan Kennedy, first wife of Ted Kennedy, is treated for breast cancer. She become an alcoholic after the Chappaquiddick incident.
2006 - Patrick Kennedy, son of Ted Kennedy, was involved in a car crash while intoxicated, that thankfully killed no one.
2006 - Ted Kennedy was aboard a plane that was struck by lightning, but no one was injured.
2009 - Ted Kennedy died of a brain tumor at the age of 77.
2011 - Kara Anne Kennedy, daughter of Ted Kennedy, died of a heart attack at a health club at the age of 51.
2012 - Mary Richardson Kennedy, wife of Robert F. Kennedy Jr, hanged herself at her mansion in New York. She was 52.
Sunday, July 8, 2012
Vogelsang
From: http://www.spiegel.de/international/zeitgeist/a-photographic-journey-through-an-abandoned-soviet-military-base-a-843056.html
"But in the forest nearby, there is a different Vogelsang. It its day, it was completely autonomous from the nearby village, had its own residential buildings, cinemas, warehouses and even a school. Some 15,000 people once lived there, and it was seldom quiet. The second Vogelsang was the home of Soviet troops, the warehouses were crammed full of tanks, howitzers and all-terrain vehicles. The cinemas were for the soldiers' families.
Vogelsang, one of the largest Soviet garrisons outside of the Soviet Union, was the base of the 25th tank division. For almost 40 year, soldiers belonging to the Group of Soviet Forces in Germany lived here -- until they finally withdrew in 1994.
Sine then, Vogelsang has been left to the elements, a ghost town in the middle of the Brandenburg forest. And yet, two decades after the last light was switched off, there is still plenty of life at the site. Deer and raccoon roam among the trees as do feral sheep and goats."
See also: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/journey-through-vogelsang-once-ussrs-massive-east-german-nuclear-military-base-and-now-ghost-to
"But in the forest nearby, there is a different Vogelsang. It its day, it was completely autonomous from the nearby village, had its own residential buildings, cinemas, warehouses and even a school. Some 15,000 people once lived there, and it was seldom quiet. The second Vogelsang was the home of Soviet troops, the warehouses were crammed full of tanks, howitzers and all-terrain vehicles. The cinemas were for the soldiers' families.
Vogelsang, one of the largest Soviet garrisons outside of the Soviet Union, was the base of the 25th tank division. For almost 40 year, soldiers belonging to the Group of Soviet Forces in Germany lived here -- until they finally withdrew in 1994.
Sine then, Vogelsang has been left to the elements, a ghost town in the middle of the Brandenburg forest. And yet, two decades after the last light was switched off, there is still plenty of life at the site. Deer and raccoon roam among the trees as do feral sheep and goats."
See also: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/journey-through-vogelsang-once-ussrs-massive-east-german-nuclear-military-base-and-now-ghost-to
Why the Swiss are idiots and what the US should do
The Swiss Franc (CHF) used to be the world's trusted currency. It was seen as a safe haven and as good as gold. When there were problems with the euro, people would buy the franc. The problem was that as the franc appreciated in value, it made their exporters less competitive.
Here is what they did: They declared war on their own currency, instantaneously reducing its value 10% on Sept. 6, 2011, and set the peg of 1.20 euros/franc floor (or 0.833 francs/euro ceiling). In order to keep the value of the franc from increasing again, they issue more francs and buy up euros. The euros, in turn, get recycled into safe German government bonds. The problem is that the euro has dramatically decreased in value against the dollar since the Swiss bought them. So the way to think about the franc is that it is a share in a giant hedge fund invested in German bonds. But the value of the shares has decreased over the last year. The CHF was worth as much as $1.37 on Aug. 10, 2011, and $1.27 on Sept 5, 2011, before dropping to $1.16 on Sept 6. Now it is worth only $1.02, only slightly more than the Australian dollar. And it will probably drop more.
What they should have done: Not announced any peg, but instead set targets. As long as the franc was still above the target level, intervene in the FX market and buy euros, the same as before. But instead selling the euros to buy gold. This would have keep the value of the franc down in nominal terms, to help their exporters, but kept the real value of it up, since it is backed by gold, not the German government.
So the result is that the Swiss franc is no longer a special currency, for better or worse. The replacement? Believe it or not, the US dollar. What does the dollar have going for it? First, it is at least partially indirectly backed by gold. On the Fed balance sheet is an entry for "Gold stock", showing a balance of 11,041 million dollars. The gold is valued at $42/ounce, when it is actually worth about $1600/ounces. So multiply it by 40 to get the actual value, which is about $440 billion. Second, the Fed isn't trying to weaken the value of the dollar. So the dollar is actually increasing in value. Which is good if you are an investor but bad if you are an exporter.
What the Fed should do: Issue more dollars. The world, for whatever reason, likes the dollar. Something the US does well is print money. But the question is, what do we do with the "wealth" that has been created? Extend unemployment again? (Joke.) Easy, buy more gold. Set a gold target that increases 5% (or whatever) per year. The Fed should set up a unit that intervenes in the foreign currency markets in an inobtrusive manner as possible, by buying Euros and Yen. And then selling those currencies and buying gold. It would be a way of putting the US dollar back on the gold exchange, partially, at least. If the price increases a lot more than the target, sell some gold. It would be like an Open Market Operation, but instead of buying and selling government bonds, buy and sell gold.
Here is what they did: They declared war on their own currency, instantaneously reducing its value 10% on Sept. 6, 2011, and set the peg of 1.20 euros/franc floor (or 0.833 francs/euro ceiling). In order to keep the value of the franc from increasing again, they issue more francs and buy up euros. The euros, in turn, get recycled into safe German government bonds. The problem is that the euro has dramatically decreased in value against the dollar since the Swiss bought them. So the way to think about the franc is that it is a share in a giant hedge fund invested in German bonds. But the value of the shares has decreased over the last year. The CHF was worth as much as $1.37 on Aug. 10, 2011, and $1.27 on Sept 5, 2011, before dropping to $1.16 on Sept 6. Now it is worth only $1.02, only slightly more than the Australian dollar. And it will probably drop more.
What they should have done: Not announced any peg, but instead set targets. As long as the franc was still above the target level, intervene in the FX market and buy euros, the same as before. But instead selling the euros to buy gold. This would have keep the value of the franc down in nominal terms, to help their exporters, but kept the real value of it up, since it is backed by gold, not the German government.
So the result is that the Swiss franc is no longer a special currency, for better or worse. The replacement? Believe it or not, the US dollar. What does the dollar have going for it? First, it is at least partially indirectly backed by gold. On the Fed balance sheet is an entry for "Gold stock", showing a balance of 11,041 million dollars. The gold is valued at $42/ounce, when it is actually worth about $1600/ounces. So multiply it by 40 to get the actual value, which is about $440 billion. Second, the Fed isn't trying to weaken the value of the dollar. So the dollar is actually increasing in value. Which is good if you are an investor but bad if you are an exporter.
What the Fed should do: Issue more dollars. The world, for whatever reason, likes the dollar. Something the US does well is print money. But the question is, what do we do with the "wealth" that has been created? Extend unemployment again? (Joke.) Easy, buy more gold. Set a gold target that increases 5% (or whatever) per year. The Fed should set up a unit that intervenes in the foreign currency markets in an inobtrusive manner as possible, by buying Euros and Yen. And then selling those currencies and buying gold. It would be a way of putting the US dollar back on the gold exchange, partially, at least. If the price increases a lot more than the target, sell some gold. It would be like an Open Market Operation, but instead of buying and selling government bonds, buy and sell gold.
Saturday, July 7, 2012
Is America turning into Japan?
http://money.msn.com/top-stocks/post.aspx?post=4f9464e7-d3a1-4011-99af-f112ea85a69f
The have been stuck in a deflationary environment for the last 22 years.
"U.S. consumers are now living in a world much like the one the Japanese have been living in for the past 20 years: a world with limited access to credit, little or no appreciation in asset values, slow growth, large government deficits, and a rickety banking system.
The headline story about Japan is that the bubble economy of the 1980s was popped by central bank policy, and through bad policy choices the country has remained mired in deflation and low growth ever since.
That sounds like something we Americans may experience."
The have been stuck in a deflationary environment for the last 22 years.
"U.S. consumers are now living in a world much like the one the Japanese have been living in for the past 20 years: a world with limited access to credit, little or no appreciation in asset values, slow growth, large government deficits, and a rickety banking system.
The headline story about Japan is that the bubble economy of the 1980s was popped by central bank policy, and through bad policy choices the country has remained mired in deflation and low growth ever since.
That sounds like something we Americans may experience."
Thursday, July 5, 2012
Rant: Vote for Obama
I will probably recant 15 minutes after I write this but here is my current thinking.
On the NFIB vs. Sebelius decision. I would have voted with the liberals on this one. Not because I agree with their policies, but the question was, is this constitutional? I think courts should be very hesitant to strike down laws as being unconstitutional that have been passed by Congress. It's a lesser version of Parliamentary Sovereignty. The way to "fix" this is to repeal it.
Is Obamacare a tax? No. There is a difference between a tax and a penalty, and it clearly is a penalty, not a tax. If it were a tax, then a challenge would have to wait until the tax was actually assessed. If it were a penalty, then the act penalized is by definition illegal. I disagree with Roberts having it both ways here.
If it is not illegal to make a decision to go without health insurance, then how could such a decision be penalized?
Does the Commerce clause reach inactivity? There are certain things you can be required to do and for which inactivity can be penalized. Such as showing your ID to board an aircraft, showing up for jury duty, and registering for Selective Service, get immunized. There are limits to the Commerce Clause (it cannot be the basis for a law forbidding bringing a gun on to school property), but this is based on natural limits (such a law should be passed at the state level), not because of inactivity.
Some "opt out" decisions require taking a stand, like being a conscientious objector, as opposed to mere neglect. Going without health insurance is a decision of this magnitude.
The age of noninterventionism died in the 1930s, when another Justice Roberts voted to uphold the constitutionality of New Deal legislation. Roberts doesn't honestly deal with the Lochner issue here. I think the individual mandate is linked to the right to receive emergency medical care. I think that one should be able to have a principled libertarian position to reject the right to receive emergency medical care linked to an exemption from the individual mandate, but the decision doesn't rely on that. So I think inactivity is not a valid limit to the Commerce Clause. To put in plain language, yes Congress could constitutionally pass a law requiring you to eat broccoli. The reality is, we have a big brother nanny state and we have had one since the 1930s.
Do we seriously want to go back to the Lochner era? Just say yes or no. If the answer is no, then it is sophistry to say that the Commerce Clause is any limitation on other than minor issues.
Roberts claims to be a conservative, to say that we have a government of limited powers, but then he upholds the law. Ask him the Lochner question, and he would say no. So he is a fake on the tax/penalty issue, and he is a fake on the Lochner question.
Specifically, compare him to Scalia. Scalia likes Lochner and isn't afraid to say so.
Romney is also a fake, a RINO. He likes big government, and passed the precursor to Obamacare in Massachusetts, known as Romneycare. If he were elected, he would act fiscally irresponsible by raising spending without raising taxes. His actions would drastically worsen the deficit.
Obama is like a sports fan who won the lottery. All he wants to do is sit on the couch with the remote and watch basketball games. When he's not doing that, he wants to play golf. Obama is the opposite of a transformational leader - he doesn't want to transform anything. He likes things just the way they are. He is out of touch, and Michelle takes full advantage of the situation by being treated like royalty. He does have people under him, specifically in the Treasury Department, who realize the fiscal dangers we are in who are trying to change things. Obama is clueless, but some of his people have a clue, and he will let them, through his inactivity, at least try to fix things.
Romney on the other hand IS big government. He will vastly expand the "police powers" of the state, and turn the US into a Mormonized (and I don't mean that in a bad way) version of Massachusetts. Imagine an army of IBM salesmen from the 1960s, all wearing black suits with black ties, or better yet, the Men in Black, with their stopwatches and flowcharts, all trying to make government more efficient.
No thank you. I prefer my government inefficient. Better the lazy bum I know than the energetic scoundrel I don't. "Keep the lazy bum in charge". There is your campaign slogan.
On the NFIB vs. Sebelius decision. I would have voted with the liberals on this one. Not because I agree with their policies, but the question was, is this constitutional? I think courts should be very hesitant to strike down laws as being unconstitutional that have been passed by Congress. It's a lesser version of Parliamentary Sovereignty. The way to "fix" this is to repeal it.
Is Obamacare a tax? No. There is a difference between a tax and a penalty, and it clearly is a penalty, not a tax. If it were a tax, then a challenge would have to wait until the tax was actually assessed. If it were a penalty, then the act penalized is by definition illegal. I disagree with Roberts having it both ways here.
If it is not illegal to make a decision to go without health insurance, then how could such a decision be penalized?
Does the Commerce clause reach inactivity? There are certain things you can be required to do and for which inactivity can be penalized. Such as showing your ID to board an aircraft, showing up for jury duty, and registering for Selective Service, get immunized. There are limits to the Commerce Clause (it cannot be the basis for a law forbidding bringing a gun on to school property), but this is based on natural limits (such a law should be passed at the state level), not because of inactivity.
Some "opt out" decisions require taking a stand, like being a conscientious objector, as opposed to mere neglect. Going without health insurance is a decision of this magnitude.
The age of noninterventionism died in the 1930s, when another Justice Roberts voted to uphold the constitutionality of New Deal legislation. Roberts doesn't honestly deal with the Lochner issue here. I think the individual mandate is linked to the right to receive emergency medical care. I think that one should be able to have a principled libertarian position to reject the right to receive emergency medical care linked to an exemption from the individual mandate, but the decision doesn't rely on that. So I think inactivity is not a valid limit to the Commerce Clause. To put in plain language, yes Congress could constitutionally pass a law requiring you to eat broccoli. The reality is, we have a big brother nanny state and we have had one since the 1930s.
Do we seriously want to go back to the Lochner era? Just say yes or no. If the answer is no, then it is sophistry to say that the Commerce Clause is any limitation on other than minor issues.
Roberts claims to be a conservative, to say that we have a government of limited powers, but then he upholds the law. Ask him the Lochner question, and he would say no. So he is a fake on the tax/penalty issue, and he is a fake on the Lochner question.
Specifically, compare him to Scalia. Scalia likes Lochner and isn't afraid to say so.
Romney is also a fake, a RINO. He likes big government, and passed the precursor to Obamacare in Massachusetts, known as Romneycare. If he were elected, he would act fiscally irresponsible by raising spending without raising taxes. His actions would drastically worsen the deficit.
Obama is like a sports fan who won the lottery. All he wants to do is sit on the couch with the remote and watch basketball games. When he's not doing that, he wants to play golf. Obama is the opposite of a transformational leader - he doesn't want to transform anything. He likes things just the way they are. He is out of touch, and Michelle takes full advantage of the situation by being treated like royalty. He does have people under him, specifically in the Treasury Department, who realize the fiscal dangers we are in who are trying to change things. Obama is clueless, but some of his people have a clue, and he will let them, through his inactivity, at least try to fix things.
Romney on the other hand IS big government. He will vastly expand the "police powers" of the state, and turn the US into a Mormonized (and I don't mean that in a bad way) version of Massachusetts. Imagine an army of IBM salesmen from the 1960s, all wearing black suits with black ties, or better yet, the Men in Black, with their stopwatches and flowcharts, all trying to make government more efficient.
No thank you. I prefer my government inefficient. Better the lazy bum I know than the energetic scoundrel I don't. "Keep the lazy bum in charge". There is your campaign slogan.
Wednesday, July 4, 2012
Social Security could run out by 2023
"once the SSTF hits its peak in 2015, the run off in assets will happen very quickly. The SSTF has stated that the date in which the TF falls to zero will be
2033. The actual termination date of the TF is much closer than that. It could come as early as 2023."
--http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-07-04/bernanke-%E2%80%93-my-goal-wreck-social-security
--http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-07-04/bernanke-%E2%80%93-my-goal-wreck-social-security
Tianjin Eco-City
From: http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20120503-sustainable-cities-on-the-rise/1China, like several other countries, is exploring the creation of sustainable urban areas, or “ecocities” as they are known. Around the world, ecocities are beginning to emerge from the drawing board, from Masdar City in Abu Dhabi to PlanIT Valley in Portugal. Aimed at being the world’s largest of its type, Tianjin Eco-city is a collaborative project between the Chinese and Singaporean government that will house 350,000 people in a low-carbon, green environment around half the size of Manhattan by 2020. All going well, the team hope its model for building a sustainable city will provide the blueprint for future urbanization efforts in China, and other countries.
Monday, July 2, 2012
Debt crisis predicted in ... 2022
See: http://www.trendlines.ca/free/economics/DebtWallUSA/DebtWallUSA.htm
USA Debt Wall: Structural Deficits Leading to Treasuries Crisis in 2022
If resultant action is not forthcoming however, current CBO data indicates that left unchecked, the annual Deficit rockets to $8 trillion by 2040, $22 trillion by 2050 & $236 trillion by 2075. Meanwhile, the National Debt surges to $242 trillion & $2,589 trillion respectively by these latter two dates.
The site predicts that the National Debt will hit $23 billion by 2021, $30 trillion by 2026, $45 trillion by 2032, $100 billion by 2041 and $242 trillion by 2050.
My projections are even worse than these, because I stop when the numbers start to get ridiculous.
USA Debt Wall: Structural Deficits Leading to Treasuries Crisis in 2022
If resultant action is not forthcoming however, current CBO data indicates that left unchecked, the annual Deficit rockets to $8 trillion by 2040, $22 trillion by 2050 & $236 trillion by 2075. Meanwhile, the National Debt surges to $242 trillion & $2,589 trillion respectively by these latter two dates.
The site predicts that the National Debt will hit $23 billion by 2021, $30 trillion by 2026, $45 trillion by 2032, $100 billion by 2041 and $242 trillion by 2050.
My projections are even worse than these, because I stop when the numbers start to get ridiculous.
April-June debt up $274 billion
I don't know whether to call this Q2 or FY2012-Q3. Anyways, the debt on March 30, 2012 was at $15,582 billion and on June 29, 2012 it was at $15,856 billion, an increase of $274 billion. The percentage increase was 1.76%, the lowest quarterly increase in about 4 years.
Just to compare, the increase for the quarter ending 3/30/12 was $359 billion (2.36%), so this is a step in the right direction.
Just to compare, the increase for the quarter ending 3/30/12 was $359 billion (2.36%), so this is a step in the right direction.
How to drain the liquidity trap
So the nation's sink is clogged up. Usually pouring more liquidity down the sink will get rid of the clog, but not now. So what to do? First, get rid of the excess liquidity. How about instead of buying up government bonds, thus providing excess liquidity, selling them instead. This would also shrink the Fed's balance sheet a little bit, giving it more ammunition in the future if needed. Yes, this would take money out of the system, increasing its value. Let's get interest rates raised a little bit, which would provide more income to savers, making them more willing to take risks. Yes, the interest rate paid by the Almighty US Government would raise a little bit, worsening the deficit, but this would force us to put our house in order.
It's worth a try. How about the Fed selling $100 billion of bonds each month for 6 months, just to see what happens?
It's worth a try. How about the Fed selling $100 billion of bonds each month for 6 months, just to see what happens?
Sunday, July 1, 2012
Washington-Baltimore Metropolitan Area
Here are my statistics for the Washington-Baltimore Metropolitan Area
Update: Revised 7/2/2012. I was confusing household income with per capita income.
======================================
Another source has:
Baltimore-Towson, MD $144.8 billion
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria $383.1 billion
for a total of $527.9
| County/Area | Area (sq.mi.) | Pop. (thous.) | GDP (est.) $billions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inner Core | |||
| District of Columbia | 61 | 618 | 105 |
| Arlington County, VA | 26 | 209 | 8 |
| Alexandria (city), VA | 15 | 140 | 5 |
| Subtotal Inner Core | 102 | 967 | 118 |
| _____________ | |||
| Outer Beltway | |||
| Montgomery County, MD | 507 | 972 | 35 |
| Prince George's County, MD | 498 | 860 | 20 |
| Fairfax (city), VA | 6 | 23 | 1 |
| Fairfax County, VA | 407 | 1101 | 41 |
| Falls Church (city), VA | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Subtotal Outer Beltway | 1420 | 2968 | 97 |
| _____________ | |||
| Exurban DC | |||
| Charles County, MD | 643 | 147 | 4 |
| Frederick County, MD | 667 | 233 | 6 |
| Fredericksburg (city), VA | 10 | 24 | 1 |
| Loudon County, VA | 520 | 312 | 10 |
| Manassas (city), VA | 10 | 38 | 1 |
| Manassas Park (city), VA | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Prince William County, VA | 338 | 402 | 10 |
| Stafford County, VA | 270 | 129 | 3 |
| Subtotal Exurban DC | 2460 | 1299 | 35 |
| _____________ | |||
| Baltimore Area | |||
| Anne Arundel County, MD | 588 | 538 | 15 |
| Baltimore (city), MD | 92 | 621 | 11 |
| Baltimore County, MD | 682 | 805 | 21 |
| Carroll County, MD | 452 | 167 | 4 |
| Harford County, MD | 527 | 245 | 6 |
| Howard County, MD | 254 | 287 | 9 |
| Subtotal Baltimore Area | 2595 | 2663 | 66 |
| _____________ | |||
| Total Washington/Baltimore | 6577 | 7897 | 315 |
Update: Revised 7/2/2012. I was confusing household income with per capita income.
======================================
Another source has:
Baltimore-Towson, MD $144.8 billion
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria $383.1 billion
for a total of $527.9
Luanda is booming
"Angola is now one of Africa’s economic successes—thanks almost entirely
to oil. With a population of 20m, it has Africa’s fifth-biggest and
fastest-growing economy. Between 2004 and 2008 its GDP surged by an
average of 17% a year, topping 22% in 2007. It is the continent’s
second-biggest oil producer after Nigeria. Foreign investment is pouring
in at a rate of more than $10 billion a year. In the past decade GDP
per person is said to have tripled."
--http://www.economist.com/node/21557811
--http://www.economist.com/node/21557811
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