Sunday, September 30, 2012

Dongguan is the Orange County of China



Boom city Dongguan faces bankruptcy.
Dongguan's derelict factories and huge deficits send chilling warning to a China in slowdown.
After three decades of spectacular growth, Guangdong's boom town of Dongguan is on the brink of bankruptcy. Up to 60 per cent of its villages are running up deficits and will soon need a bailout from the township, researchers at Sun Yat-sen University have discovered.
It is a dramatic turn of fortune for Dongguan - one of the richest cities in China - and could foreshadow a wider fiscal crisis as the country's economy cools.
Local government debt hit 10.7 trillion yuan (HK$13.16 trillion) nationwide at the end of 2010, equivalent to about 27 per cent of gross domestic product. Credit rating service Moody's estimates the actual figure could be about 14.2 trillion yuan.
Bai Jingming, a senior researcher at the Ministry of Finance, estimated in 2009 the total debt of village authorities could total 10 per cent of the country's GDP, but there is no official data.
Bai said many village chiefs he interviewed had no idea how much debt they had. Yet their failings could bring serious political and financial instability at higher level government right down to the grass roots.
Experts have found Dongguan's village debt woes stem from two factors: a tightly-bound landlord economy, plunged into crisis by failing factories in the global downturn, and political pressure on local village chiefs to pay generous "dividends" to voters under the immature rural election system.
--http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-27/chinese-mega-city-verge-bankruptcy
Orange County, California filed for bankruptcy in 1994. But I think there are a lot more similarities than that.  Orange County has Disneyland and South Coast Plaza, the largest mall in California.  Dongguan has the New South China Mall (the largest mall in the world), which had aspirations of becoming a Disneyland for shoppers, with 7 themed areas and an indoor roller coaster, but it is a total failure and is 99% empty.  Dongguan is a suburb of Guangzhou, and has 8.2 million residents in an area of about 2500 sq.km. "The most defining characteristic about this urban amalgam [Dongguan] is its lack of character."  Orange County is a suburb of Los Angeles and has 3 million residents in an area of 2500 sq.km.

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Kind of on topic. Los Angeles should be split into 4 metropolitan areas:
Los Angeles County.  Population of LA+Orange is 12.9 million. GDP of LA+Orange is $736 bn.  LA by itself has 9.9 million.  GDP $556 bn (estimate).
Orange County.  Population 3 million.  GDP $180 bn (estimate).
Riverside-San Bernadino. Population 4.3 million. GDP $110 bn
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura (part of Ventura County).  Population 832,000. GDP $36bn

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