Monday, September 24, 2012

Germany will be the first to leave the Euro

" The positive expectation game for Germany achieved via the use of a common currency reached its peak when the debt of the countries in the south of Europe reached levels that could not be financed by the markets any longer.
There is no positive expectation for Germany in the EU at this point because the failed nations want everyone to share the losses. As a matter of fact, it appears that in order for the EU to survive, the Germans should start giving back their profits to rebalance the system. That could take the form of money printing, or of issuing eurobonds, or even of provision of German guaranties to other nations for financing their debt. As a result, if EU and the euro must continue to exist, the German standard of living must decline. This appears to be unacceptable to Germans as the recent poll showed.
One alternative is for Germany to get out of the euro. The cost will be high in the short term because the newly adopted German currency will appreciate substantially in relation to the euro and exports will slow down. However, Germany will be able to keep its current surplus and invest in other European countries by buying cheap assets, something that cannot be done with the euro at this point because recent experience has shown that internal devaluation has a minimum impact on asset prices and such process mainly affects the salaries of workers. Essentially, if Germany exits the euro, that will prevent its wealth from getting diluted, and it can use it to assist other countries in rebuilding. If Germany finances those countries now, it is possible that no positive effect will result in the longer-term because of the structural problems in their economies."
--http://seekingalpha.com/article/885911-germany-may-exit-the-euro-before-greece-does 

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"It's becoming clear that there is only one sensible solution ahead of us as the Eurozone’s problems evolve: Germany and the other countries suited to a strong currency should leave. If they do, the European Central Bank (ECB) will be free to pursue the easy money policies recommended by Keynesians and monetarists alike. It's increasingly clear that Germany has no option but to behave like any creditor seeking to protect its interests – and do its best to defuse the growing resentment against her from the Eurozone’s debtors."
--http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-25/guest-post-why-germany-going-exit-eurozone

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