Crisis in 2039

Date: 10/20/2013. I haven't done a debt forecast in a while.  In the last one, I thought the endpoint would be in 2036. Now I think we have until 2039.  Woohoo!  The numbers come from the CBO, but I tweaked them slightly.  I think that if interest exceeds 5% of GDP, that there is a serious problem.

Once interest hits this amount, the whole thing quickly spirals out of control.  It is impossible at this point to either raise revenue enough or cut spending enough to make a difference.  Entitlements aren't really the problem, since they can be cut. Interest can't be cut without defaulting.  Soon after this point the whole system will either collapse due to default, or launch into hyperinflation.

Med means both Medicare and Medicaid.

Year  GDP   Rev SS  Med  Oth Int Totl Def Debt   Int%
==== ===== ==== === ==== === === ==== === ====  ====

2013 16034 2726 786 754 1603 208 3351 625 11976 1.3%
2014 16646 2946 816 799 1615 233 3462 516 12492 1.4%
2015 17632 3280 864 882 1657 247 3650 370 12862 1.4%
2016 18792 3477 921 977 1691 301 3890 413 13276 1.6%
2017 19959 3652 958 1038 1716 379 4092 439 13715 1.9%
2018 20943 3812 1026 1089 1738 482 4335 524 14238 2.3%
2019 21890 3962 1073 1204 1773 547 4597 635 14873 2.5%
2020 22854 4137 1143 1257 1828 617 4845 708 15582 2.7%
2021 23842 4339 1216 1335 1907 668 5126 787 16368 2.8%
2022 24858 4574 1293 1442 1989 746 5469 895 17263 3.0%
2023 25910 4793 1373 1529 2073 803 5778 985 18248 3.1%
2024 26946 5012 1428 1617 2156 889 6090 1078 19326 3.3%
2025 28024 5240 1541 1737 2242 953 6474 1233 20559 3.4%
2026 29145 5450 1632 1836 2332 1078 6878 1428 21987 3.7%
2027 30311 5698 1728 1940 2425 1152 7244 1546 23533 3.8%
2028 31523 5958 1860 2081 2522 1229 7692 1734 25267 3.9%
2029 32784 6229 1967 2197 2623 1279 8065 1836 27102 3.9%
2030 34095 6478 2046 2318 2728 1398 8490 2012 29114 4.1%
2031 35459 6773 2163 2518 2837 1454 8971 2198 31313 4.1%
2032 36878 7081 2250 2655 2950 1549 9404 2323 33636 4.2%
2033 38353 7402 2378 2800 3068 1649 9895 2493 36129 4.3%
2034 39887 7738 2473 2992 3191 1755 10411 2672 38801 4.4%
2035 41482 8089 2572 3153 3319 1867 10910 2821 41622 4.5%
2036 43142 8456 2718 3365 3451 2028 11562 3106 44728 4.7%
2037 44867 8794 2782 3544 3589 2154 12069 3275 48004 4.8%
2038 46662 9192 2893 3780 3733 2286 12692 3500 51503 4.9%
2039 48528 9609 3009 3931 3882 2426 13248 3640 55143 5.0%
2040 50470 10044 3129 4139 4038 2574 13879 3836 58978 5.1%

See also: http://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2012/06/interest-rates-explode-after-2029.html