Thursday, June 21, 2012

Interest rates explode after 2029

This is a very simple model, probably flawed.  If interest rates ever exceed 5% of GDP then we have a serious problem. At this point, at least 25% of revenues would go just to pay interest.  After this point, the situation deteriorates rapidly.

I got the numbers through 2022 from the official OMB budget FY2013 proposal. After that, I assume that GDP increases 4.5%/year.  For interest, I assume that it increases 10%/year after 2022.

Interest rates really have nowhere to go but up, and on a skyrocketing base. 


YearGDP
(trillions)
Interest
(trillions)
Int % of GDP
201115.10.231.52%
201215.80.221.39%
201316.50.251.51%
201417.40.311.78%
201518.40.392.11%
201619.50.482.46%
201720.70.572.76%
201821.70.652.97%
201922.70.723.16%
202023.70.783.31%
202124.70.853.43%
202225.80.923.55%
202326.91.013.74%
202428.11.113.94%
202529.41.224.14%
202630.71.344.36%
202732.11.474.59%
202833.51.624.83%
202935.11.785.09%
This is model L-1.

Update: 6/25/2012.  This is similar to Model G-1, which saw danger in gross interest paid exceeding 40% of revenue.   Net interest seems to be about half of gross interest.

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