Friday, June 22, 2012

It's stupid to borrow money

Credit does not bring prosperity.  It is a ponzi scheme. 

Only economic surplus -- that is, savings -- produces prosperity.  It does so through capital formation which has as its predicate savings.
Borrowing is a short-term elixer that has its place, but it requires more surplus to pay back borrowing than to simply save in the first place, as you must pay both the original borrowed funds and the interest.  This in turn means that when you borrow you are not only time-shifting your requirement for surplus to tomorrow you are amplifying it at the same time.
If there is no surplus with which to pay the borrowing back then borrowed funds are a ponzi scheme that can only lead to bankruptcy unless a "greater fool" appears to take whatever you bought off your hands at a higher price.
Further, very low interest rates are a signal from The Fed that they expect crap economic performance.  The rational person who has access to cheap credit but doubts their ability to generate economic surplus in the future is a fool to borrow as they are simply generating their future bankruptcy by doing so irrespective of interest rate!  When you have a bunch of academics saying through their policy pronouncements that the economy will be crappy and the government will be handing out borrowed money through a fire hose, thereby destroying the purchasing power of surplus capital, you are sending a strong signal to the market that it's stupid to borrow money.
--http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?blog=Market-Ticker&page=2

My comments: I agree exactly.  To restate the key points:
1. Only savings produces prosperity.
2. Borrowing should be done only if the money can be used to create economic surplus in the future.
3. This future economic surplus is not possible right now.
4. Therefore it is stupid to borrow money right now irrespective of interest rate.

The only way to get the economy going again is a) raise interest rates to encourage savings, and b) let the chips fall where they may on bad debts.  Instead the Fed is prolonging the misery.

Debt is not the solution, it is the problem.

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