Holy Cow

	Rate	3 month	6 month	1 year	2 year	3 year
Jun 21, 2019	2.35%	5.875	5.875	5.875	5.875	5.875
Sep 21, 2019	2.35%		5.875	5.875	5.875	5.875
Dec 21, 2019	2.10%			5.25	5.25	5.25
Mar 21, 2020	1.85%			4.625	4.625	4.625
Jun 21, 2020	1.60%				4	4
Sep 21, 2020	1.60%				4	4
Dec 21, 2020	1.60%				4	4
Mar 21, 2021	1.60%				4	4
Jun 21, 2021	1.60%					4
Sep 21, 2021	1.60%					4
Dec 21, 2021	1.85%					4.625
Mar 21, 2022	1.85%					4.625
Total interest paid		5.875	11.75	21.625	37.625	54.875
Num quarters		1	2	4	8	12
Total Annualized Return		2.37%	2.36%	2.16%	1.86%	1.80%
Actual as of 6/3		2.35%	2.31%	2.11%	1.82%	1.79%

The bond market is now predicting 3 interest rate cuts, in December, March 2020 and June 2020.  And that they won't rise at all until December 2021.   The first rate drop somehow either is a leading indicator of a recession or causes it, with a lag time of about 3 months.  Last time, the Fed cut rates in September 2007 and the recession started in December 2007.

So we a looking at a stock market crash in October, a rate cut in December, and the recession starting in March 2020 and lasting through September 2021.   This will obviously reduce GDP growth, tax revenue will decline and the deficit will soar.  Will we see a $2 trillion deficit in FY 2021?

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Update:
The Countdown to FOMC site is predicting a 29% chance of a rate cut in June (this month), and a 75% of a rate cut by July (next month). By September, the odds increase to 92%.  By December, there is a 98.4% chance of a cut. 

I'm obviously missing something.  I don't get why the Fed would cut at all, unless there is a stock market crash.