Wednesday, June 5, 2019

Rate cut by September


Rate 3 month 6 month 1 year 2 year 3 year
Jun 21, 2019 2.35% 5.875 5.875 5.875 5.875 5.875
Sep 21, 2019 2.10%
5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25
Dec 21, 2019 1.85%

4.625 4.625 4.625
Mar 21, 2020 1.85%

4.625 4.625 4.625
Jun 21, 2020 1.60%


4 4
Sep 21, 2020 1.60%


4 4
Dec 21, 2020 1.60%


4 4
Mar 21, 2021 1.85%


4.625 4.625
Jun 21, 2021 1.85%



4.625
Sep 21, 2021 1.85%



4.625
Dec 21, 2021 1.85%



4.625
Mar 21, 2022 1.85%



4.625
Total interest paid
5.875 11.125 20.375 37 55.5
Num quarters
1 2 4 8 12







Total Annualized Return
2.37% 2.24% 2.04% 1.83% 1.82%
Actual as of 6/5
2.35% 2.25% 2.04% 1.83% 1.81%

The bond market is now predicting rate cuts in September, December and June 2020.  Previously (just 2 days ago), it was predicting rate cuts in December, March 2020 and June 2020.

So expect something drastic between now and September that would force the Fed to react, maybe a stock market crash or maybe a jump in the unemployment rate. And the recession should start in December 2019.

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