I think we about to into a recession. The 10-year Treasury yield is over 1% less than the 3-month rate. Every single time this has happened in the past, with one possible exception in the 1960s, the economy goes into a recession shortly thereafter. The Fed should be cutting rates, not raising them.
See: https://www.dollarcollapse.com/the-fed-is-already-flashing-signs-its-done-raising-rates/
"The economy has been so fragile and so based on little more than easy money since 2006, that it only takes some minor tightening to throw a major monkey wrench into financial markets—and then the larger economy.
Indeed, the signs of recession are everywhere. Money supply growth actually turned negative for the second month in row in December. The yield curve is more inverted now than it’s been in forty years. Home prices are slowing. The Leading Economic Index is well into recessionary territory."
See also: https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2018/404
Note that the yield-curve slope becomes negative before each economic recession since the 1970s. That is, an “inversion” of the yield curve, in which short-maturity interest rates exceed long-maturity rates, is typically associated with a recession in the near future.
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