Updated CBO Projections

 Read: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58848

So the CBO just released a report acknowledging that conditions were worse than previously projected.

CBO’s projection of the deficit for 2023 is now $0.4 trillion more than it was in May 2022; the projection of the cumulative deficit over the 2023–2032 period is now $3.1 trillion (or about 20 percent) more. CBO now expects both short- and long-term interest rates to be higher, on average, over the next five years than forecast last May, mostly because of higher projected inflation.

In their projections, the Federal Debt will be 151.5% of GDP by 2043.  This is the same year I previously identified as being the breaking point.

And some commentary ...

What is so special about the 150% figure?  Nothing, it is arbitrary on my part.  But right now, we still maintain the fiction that the national debt can be repaid, even if it would take 100 years or so.  At some point, this fiction will be impossible to maintain, and the debt will start soaring upward.  I think this would be about the 150% area.  Once debt gets beyond this, it will start soaring another 4% of GDP per year.  So the actual danger area is probably less than this, say 120% of GDP.  When will this number be reached?  In 2034.  And this is the same year the Social Security trust fund will be exhausted.  So maybe 2034 is really when things start to quickly fall apart, and we should countdown to that year.  We have 11 years left of semi-normalcy.