Saturday, August 19, 2023

Deficit of $222 Billion in July 2023

 The deficit in July 2023 was $222 billion, CBO estimates—$11 billion larger than the amount recorded in July 2022. The federal budget deficit was $1.6 trillion [actually $1.617 trillion] in the first 10 months of fiscal year 2023, the Congressional Budget Office estimates—more than twice the shortfall recorded during the same period last year. Revenues were 10 percent lower and outlays were 10 percent higher from October through July than they were during the same period in fiscal year 2022.  https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59377/html

Why were the outlays higher?  Mostly because of these 5 categories:  1) Social Security benefits rose by $111 billion (or 11 percent); 2) Medicare outlays increased by $104 billion (or 18 percent) ; 3) Medicaid outlays increased by $29 billion (or 6 percent); 4)  Net outlays for interest on the public debt rose by $146 billion (or 34 percent), mainly because interest rates are significantly higher than they were in the first 10 months of fiscal year 2022; 5) Outlays of the Department of Education increased by $91 billion (or 57 percent), primarily because in July the Administration recorded the costs ($71 billion) it estimated for modifying outstanding student loans.

What was the net interest for the month? It is $572 billion FYTD, and last month this was at $505 billion, so the interest for the month was $67 billion.  Defense spending FTYD is $630 billion and last month this was at $576 billion.  So it was only $54 billion for the month. (This doesn't seem right, usually military spending is about $65 billion per month, so maybe there is a mistake somewhere.)  But if this is a sporting event, team Interest won July over Defense.  Time for Defense to spend more.

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On 7/31/2023, the total national debt was $32.61 trillion.  One year earlier, on 7/31/22, it was $30.6 trillion.  So it increased 6.5% in one year.


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