Tuesday, August 1, 2023

GDP is now $26.8 Trillion

 Current‑dollar GDP increased 4.7 percent at an annual rate, or $305.2 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $26.84 trillion.  https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/gross-domestic-product-second-quarter-2023-advance-estimate

The Debt Held by the Public is $25.7 trillion as of 7/31/2023.  Thus, the debt to GDP ratio is currently 95.8%.  So nothing to worry about.  The last time I calculated this, only 3 months ago, the ratio was 92.9%.

I think as long as this ratio stays below 101% (100% plus a margin for error) then we can continue business as usual.  Once it gets to 101% then the interest as a percent of GDP will be greater than the interest rate and it will start compounding more rapidly.  This should occur sometime in 2025, probably.

Update (October 24): 

The BEA made another estimate of 2nd Quarter 2023 GDP

Current dollar GDP increased 3.8 percent at an annual rate, or $249.4 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $27.06 trillion.

So they said that GDP didn't increase as much as they thought before, but the current level is higher.  This is because they also adjusted the 1st quarter higher. Anyways, this is good news.

The debt to the public is now at $26.5 trillion so the ratio is now only 97.9%, which is still less than 100%. 

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