When will the next recession begin?

Recessions are officially called by the National Bureau of Economic Research; however, they won't tell us when a recession begins until the next recovery is well under way, so they are no help.  But there is one indicator that I think is very precise.  When the Fed cut rates, that is when the recession begins.  

In 2007, the Fed did their first rate cut on September 18, 2007 of 50 basis points, and the recession began in December 2007.  So this was a leading indicator of 3 months.

Now, the Fed will likely do the first rate cut in March 2024, so the recession will start about June 2024.  

But, you object, the Fed cutting doesn't mean a recession is coming.  I think it does, because the Fed has access to all sorts of private data that we don't, and when they cut they are reacting to the weakness that they see.  

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See also: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/10/how-the-bond-market-is-screaming-danger-for-the-economy.html

You don’t really need to know a lot about the economy or bond market to know that there’s one signal that investors live in fear of more than just about any other. It’s called the inverted yield curve — which just means a flippening of sorts in the relationship between long-term and short-term U.S. government bonds.  The phenomenon defies easy logic, but it has consistently predicted every recession for more than a half century.

There’s an interesting phenomenon with the yield-curve inversion now, which is that it’s starting to disinvert — which is to say, go back to a normal shape. In your model, what’s the significance of that?  So the average lead time from an inversion to a recession, over the past four, is 13 months. So we’re not even at the average yet — it’s way too early to say that it’s a false signal. But more importantly, you look at the past four recessions, and before the recession begins, every single time, you see the uninversion happening or whatever the word is. The steepening occurs before the beginning of the recession. So this is exactly what you’d expect.

Yes, “the bear steepening,” as people call it when the long end of the curve rises and the inversion ends. If that is happening now, when do you expect a recession?  I expect first quarter or second quarter of next year.  [Note: This is anytime from January through June of 2024].