The Bilt Card

This card has an interesting sales pitch.  Pay rent, get points, use the points for travel.

Sanctions don't work anymore

 Read:  https://www.kitklarenberg.com/p/collapsing-empire-the-day-sanctions

Accordingly, WaPo reports that the deleterious “overuse” of sanctions “is recognized at the highest levels” of the US government, and “concern about their impact has grown” in line with their use: “Some senior administration officials have told President Biden directly that overuse of sanctions risks making the tool less valuable.” However, US officials still can’t kick their sanctions habit, “[tending] to see each individual action as justified, making it hard to stop the trend.”

As the mainstream media is now frequently forced to admit, Western sanctions on Moscow not only failed to produce universally forecast economic destruction, but revitalised domestic industry and increased wages for average citizens. In May, The Spectator begrudgingly observed, “Russians are spending more on restaurants, white goods, and even property - they’ve never had it so good.” Meanwhile, Europe, electively cut off from the country’s cheap energy supplies due to those sanctions, is deindustrialising at rapacious speed.

Will the Port strike shut down the economy next week?

 Watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SpqhYxd3ShI

The International Longshoreman's Association (ILA) will go on strike on October 1.  They represent 85,000 port workers in Houston, New Orleans, Mobile, Miami, Jacksonville, Savannah, Charleston, Wilmington NC, Norfolk, Baltimore, Wilmington DE, Philadelphia, Ports of NJ and NY, and Boston and others. 56% of all US cargo traffic will be affected.

If the strike lasts more than a few days, the effects will be devastating.  This may be an exaggeration, but auto dealers may be forced to close (because new cars can't be delivered), and gas stations may be forced to close (because they run out of gas), and delivery by trucks will stop.  Amazon may have to shut down.  Christmas may have to be cancelled because consumer good can't be obtained.

The ILA workers are currently paid an average of $39/hour and want a 77% raise over the next 6 years.  They also want a total ban on any port automation, including presumably automated gates, self-driving trucks, robotic cranes, etc.  The USMX has offered a 40% increase in wages.  The pay is probably not the sticking point, but the automation is.  

I think the ILA position is unreasonable, and the strike will probably go on for a few weeks until the President (or whoever is controlling him) will step in and force a settlement right before the election, which won't make his party popular.

Let's see what happens.  I think it will be crazy in about a week.

Update: The strike has been postponed until January 15, 2025, just in time for the new president to deal with.  https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/04/business/port-strike-ends-whats-next/index.html

Renminbi with duplicate serial numbers

 

 Apparently, whoever prints money in China has been printing duplicates or even triplicates, and it is impossible to determine the fakes since they are of such high quality.

Eat the Cat

Orange Man says eating cats is bad.

Dark Winter

 Dark Winter was an extremely realistic pandemic war game exercise held just before 9/11 in 2001 involving a fictional smallpox attack. It predicted rioting and the National Guard on the streets and basically the imposition of martial law.  This influenced the handling of Covid-19.

Read:    https://substack.com/@democracymanifest/p-148108121

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/01/coronavirus-pandemic-war-games-simulation-dark-winter/

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/34/7/972/316999

https://centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/tabletop-exercises/dark-winter-a-training-tabletop-exercise

Fed cuts rates by 0.5% on September 18

 2007, that is.

Interest rates slashed to help economy

Fed's dramatic action lowers target on key short-term rate for the first time in 4 years - to 4.75% - and signals more cuts could be coming.

By Paul R. La Monica, CNNMoney.com editor at large

September 18 2007: 5:03 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The Federal Reserve cut the target on a key short-term interest rate by half of a percentage point Tuesday to 4.75% in a bold acknowledgement that the central bank is concerned the mortgage meltdown plaguing Wall Street and Main Street could hurt the economy. The Fed also indicated that more rate cuts could be on the way, news that investors cheered. Stocks surged following the announcement.

From: https://money.cnn.com/2007/09/18/news/economy/fed_rates/index.htm

Commentary:  I think the Fed is following a script and will announce cuts of half a percentage today.  To be updated with the breaking news later today.

================

Update:

Jumbo-sized rate cut: Fed slashes rates by a half percentage point

By Bryan Mena, Elisabeth Buchwald and Krystal Hur, CNN

Updated 5:09 PM EDT, Wed September 18, 2024

What we're covering here

In a significant shift for the US economy, the Federal Reserve announced a jumbo-sized rate cut Wednesday, its first rate reduction cut since Covid. It’s a major economic milestone both for the central bank’s long fight with inflation and for Americans battling a higher cost of living for the past two years.

From: https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/federal-reserve-interest-rate-09-18-24/index.html

==============

Future rate cut schedule:

FOMC Meeting     Cut         New Rate

=========== ===== ========

Sep. 18, 2024             -50 4.75%

Oct. 31, 2024             -25 4.50%

Dec. 11, 2024             -25 4.25%

Jan. 22, 2025             -75 3.50%

Jan. 30, 2025             -50 3.00%

Mar. 18, 2025             -75 2.25%

Apr. 30, 2025             -25 2.00%

From: https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fed-funds-rate-history/

(I just took the historical dates in 2007 and 2008 and added 17 years to them).

The recession will start on December 1, 2024 if the 17-year cycle continues to repeat.

Report on the UK National Debt

 Read: https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld5901/ldselect/ldeconaf/5/5.pdf

The summary is three pages long, but I think this states it succinctly:  To ensure debt is on a sustainable path, we face a choice. If we wish to improve the level and quality of services, and continue the current provision of benefits, taxes will need to rise. The alternative is that the state does less. Addressing this will demand clarity as to the responsibilities and role of the individual versus that of the state. If this choice is ducked during this Parliament, the UK risks being on a path to unsustainable debt. Muddling through is not an option. 

It doesn't give a year when it thinks debt levels would be unsustainable.

It might be interesting to read this and pick out the British idioms.  Here are a few:

• muddling through
• ducked
• fit for purpose
• pump prime ("prime the pump")
• gilt (meaning "bond")
• short-termism

Trillions of taxpayer dollars are missing

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8Ml6k7eKos

In this clip from a recent episode of the Children's Health Defense series, Financial Rebellion, Investment banker and former HUD official Catherine Austin Fitts describes how the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) has spent $20 trillion of taxpayer money (between 1998 and 2015) that has gone undocumented and unaccounted for. Fitts also highlights the fact that the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) has done the same with $1 trillion of taxpayer money. Full Report: https://home.solari.com/

The deficit in August 2024 was $381 billion

 From: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-09/60592-MBR.pdf

The deficit in August 2024 was $381 billion, CBO estimates—compared with a surplus of $89 billion recorded in August 2023. The federal budget deficit was $1.9 trillion [$1.898 trillion] in the first 11 months of fiscal year 2024, the Congressional Budget Office estimates—$373 billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last fiscal year. Revenues were $420 billion (or 11 percent) higher and outlays were $793 billion (or 14 percent) higher from October through August than they were during the same period in fiscal year 2023.

Net interest in August 2024 was $88 billion (870 - 782), up from $72 billion in August 2023.

On 8/31/2024, the national debt was $35.256 trillion, up from $32.914 trillion on 8/31/2023, so it increased 7.1% in one year.

The Federal Reserve now has a deficit of $193.3 billion (as of 8/28/2024) compared to $186.3 billion (as of 7/31/24), an increase of $7.0 billion for the month. See https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RESPPLLOPNWW  .  It should exceed $200 billion next month.

==================

Update (9/14):  Most of the August deficit is due to an accounting charge by the Department of Education.  Outlays by the Department of Education increased by $315 billion, largely because the Administration recorded a decrease of $330 billion in August 2023 to reflect the June 2023 Supreme Court decision prohibiting the cancellation of outstanding loans for many borrowers. Excluding the reversal of that proposed debt cancellation, net spending by the department decreased by $15 billion, primarily because increases in the estimated costs of outstanding loans recorded in the first 11 months of 2023 were larger than the increases recorded for those costs for the same period in 2024. 

If this change was take out, then the monthly deficit would be only $66 billion.

I don't understand how this affects the deficit at all.  Loans to students are assets to the government, and if you cancel the loans, then the asset balance decreases.  And if you undue the cancellation, then the asset balance increases.  This has no impact on the national debt. 

Hybrid sedans with the best MPG

 Here is my list of hybrid cars with the combined best miles per gallon.  These numbers may have a range of error and are subject to change. They also vary by trim within the same brand.

1. Toyota Prius hybrid (57)

2. Kia Niro hybrid (53). (This is a crossover, not a true sedan)

3. Toyota Camry Hybrid LE (52).  The Camry is bigger than the Corolla, but it also has a bigger battery and bigger engine (2.5L for Camry vs 2.0L for Corolla) and it is more efficient at higher speeds.  

4. Toyota Corolla Hybrid LE (50).

5. Hyundai Elantra hybrid (50).  Also see Hyundai Ioniq Hybrid, discontinued in 2022 (55).

6. Honda Civic hybrid (49)

7. Honda Accord EX hybrid (48)

8. Hyundai Sonata hybrid (47)

9. Lexus ES hybrid (44)

10. Lexus UX hybrid (43)

11. Toyota Corolla Cross hybrid (42). (This is a crossover, not a true sedan)

12. Toyota Crown hybrid (41)

This does not include SUV which is a separate list.

===========

Update: Another list has:

2024 BMW 750e xDrive with 56 mpg. It costs $107,000.

2024 BMW 330e supposedly gets 76 mpg and only costs $45,600

2024 Toyota Prius Prime SE supposedly gets 129 mpg and costs $32,000

A new episode of the Smith Family

 

Source: https://www.mmted.org/smithfamily/

Hey kids, there is a new episode of your favorite propaganda comic strip.  Learn how Professor Noitawl is stupid for worrying about the Debt Mountain, because the government can just spend whatever it wants.  (Just don't ask how hyper-inflation gets started).

New business model - buy cybertrucks and rent them out for $500 per day

 https://insideevs.com/features/730303/turo-tesla-cybertruck-host-liu/

Unlike Hertz, Turo is an Airbnb for cars. It's a platform where owners themselves put their cars up for rent. They decide the price and on top of that, Turo adds some fees based on vehicle value, booking lead time, duration, etc. It's an entirely different business model. And Turo has gained a reputation for allowing ordinary folks to have some fun by renting supercars and swanky SUVs and sedans—posters of which may exist on their bedroom wallpapers, but are not easily attainable in real life. “People rent on Turo for luxury and for experience, both of which the Cybertruck provides,” Liu said.

Liu’s five Cybertrucks have a high utilization rate. In other words, they're almost always on the road, rented by people who haven’t experienced it as Tesla started official test drives only recently. In four months, the combined rental income from the five trucks has helped him recover the price of an entire truck. “The five Cybertrucks, believe it or not, since April, have made me $120,000 already,” he said pointing his finger to the Turo app on his iPhone screen showing the income generated from the rentals. “Since April, I have made $30,000 on just one vehicle.”

Now he thinks there’s potential to earn even more. So he has ordered 20 more Cybertrucks, bringing his total order book to 25. InsideEVs verified both his earnings on the existing trucks and the number of orders he has placed. He’s also shared his June earnings in a public Facebook post.

House prices have more to drop

 

Source: https://wolfstreet.com/2024/09/05/buyers-strike-deepened-in-august-despite-lower-mortgage-rates-listings-surge-home-sellers-slowly-respond-drop-prices/

Housing prices should bottom out in January.  Mortgage rates have already dropped (to about 6.85%) in anticipation of the Fed cutting rates later this month, but sales have not picked up.  I think the market will remain mostly frozen unless the Fed cuts rates by a total of 1%, which probably won't happen until March 2025.  By then we might be in a full-blown recession.

Venezuelan Gang has taken over another apartment building in Aurora Colorado

 Read:  https://www.cbsnews.com/colorado/news/colorado-law-firm-report-claims-venezuelan-gang-stranglehold-apartments-takeover-began-2023/

"The gang activity at Whispering Pines escalated in 2024," according to the document obtained by CBS News Colorado. In April 2024, a housekeeper called the property manager "informing him that two individuals at the property went into an apartment, came out with large firearms, and were coming to kill him (the property manager)." The individuals were apparently past due on rent.  The property manager said, "that the two individuals were arrested as they were coming to kill him." The report says the men, who were armed with "large firearms," were gang members.

The property manager went on to say that "gang members allegedly stabbed a Whispering Pines resident for refusing to pay "rent" to the gang. Since then, the property has recorded footage of gang members knocking on doors and, without authorization or any other justification, attempting to collect rent from the tenants of Whispering Pines..."  In June, the report says suspected gang members approached the property manager and offered to help the manager "if he agreed to pay the gang 50% of everything the property management company collected in rent." The investigators who authored the report called this an "organized crime tactic." They said gang members then said they were taking over vacant units at Whispering Pines and would start collecting rent from tenants. "This is our business plan," one gang member told a housekeeper. "If he (property manager) doesn't like it, we'll fill him with bullets."

Following that incident, the report says video footage shows TDA gang members violently breaking into vacant apartments, kicking doors open, and moving Venezuelan immigrants into the empty apartments. "This conduct's brazen and public nature further exhibits the suspected gang members' sense of comfort and control consistent with their taking over the property and not fearing the law enforcement of the property management." Investigators concluded that gang members have been extorting "rents" from residents they moved into vacant units.

The Second Shot

 https://sashalatypova.substack.com/p/the-second-shot-or-what-do-vaccinators

You notice that [Charles] Richet talks about the “second injection”. This refers to the nature of anaphylaxis: the first interaction with an injected toxin may be not even noticed, be well tolerated or may be at worst mildly irritating. After a period of 2-3 weeks, the second exposure, however, may become very dangerous or fatal. The second exposure in most of Richet’s experiments was by injection. However, with high enough sensitization by the first injection, the anaphylaxis could also result from environmental exposure or ingestion, depending on the degree of sensitization to the “allergen”, or “toxigen” as he termed it.