Wednesday, September 11, 2024

The deficit in August 2024 was $381 billion

 From: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-09/60592-MBR.pdf

The deficit in August 2024 was $381 billion, CBO estimates—compared with a surplus of $89 billion recorded in August 2023. The federal budget deficit was $1.9 trillion [$1.898 trillion] in the first 11 months of fiscal year 2024, the Congressional Budget Office estimates—$373 billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last fiscal year. Revenues were $420 billion (or 11 percent) higher and outlays were $793 billion (or 14 percent) higher from October through August than they were during the same period in fiscal year 2023.

Net interest in August 2024 was $88 billion (870 - 782), up from $72 billion in August 2023.

On 8/31/2024, the national debt was $35.256 trillion, up from $32.914 trillion on 8/31/2023, so it increased 7.1% in one year.

The Federal Reserve now has a deficit of $193.3 billion (as of 8/28/2024) compared to $186.3 billion (as of 7/31/24), an increase of $7.0 billion for the month. See https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RESPPLLOPNWW  .  It should exceed $200 billion next month.

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Update (9/14):  Most of the August deficit is due to an accounting charge by the Department of Education.  Outlays by the Department of Education increased by $315 billion, largely because the Administration recorded a decrease of $330 billion in August 2023 to reflect the June 2023 Supreme Court decision prohibiting the cancellation of outstanding loans for many borrowers. Excluding the reversal of that proposed debt cancellation, net spending by the department decreased by $15 billion, primarily because increases in the estimated costs of outstanding loans recorded in the first 11 months of 2023 were larger than the increases recorded for those costs for the same period in 2024. 

If this change was take out, then the monthly deficit would be only $66 billion.

I don't understand how this affects the deficit at all.  Loans to students are assets to the government, and if you cancel the loans, then the asset balance decreases.  And if you undue the cancellation, then the asset balance increases.  This has no impact on the national debt. 

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