Thursday, November 7, 2024

Fed cuts rates 0.25 percent following 17 year cycle

 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-21

https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2024/09/fed-cuts-rates-by-05-on-september-18.html

I have already pointed out the freakishness of the 17 year cycle here:  https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2024/02/17-year-cycle.html

On September 18, 2007, the Fed cut interest rates by 0.5% from 5.25% to 4.75%.

On September 18, 2024, the Fed cut interest rates by 0.5% from 5.25% to 4.75%, exactly 17 years later.

On October 31, 2007, the Fed cut rates by 0.25% from 4.75% to 4.5%.

On November 7, 2024, the Fed cut rates by 0.25% from 4.75% to 4.5%, 17 years and 7 days later.

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I feel like history is repeating itself almost exactly.  If trends continue, look out for these dates:

December 1, 2007, the recession officially began, although it was not officially called until much later by the BEA.  (Will a recession begin on December 1, 2024?)

December 11, 2007, the Fed cut rates another 0.25%.  (There is a Fed meeting on December 17-18, 2024, will the Fed cut rates another 0.25% on that date?)

January 22, 2008, the Fed cut rates another 0.75%.  (There is a Fed meeting on Jan 30-31, 2025, will the Fed cut rates by another 0.75% at that time?  This seems crazy and would only happen if there is a crisis of some sort).

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