Will Stablecoins replace Visa?

 Read:  https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/stablecoins-are-becoming-default-settlement-layer-internet

Hurwitz said that stablecoins make money “cheap, fast, global, and secure to transfer.” These features have made them popular for various purposes, with broad adoption emerging across cross-border payments and prediction markets like Polymarket.  He added that stablecoins have become massive buyers of US Treasuries, with Tether alone generating $13 billion in profits last year while holding around $113 billion in US debt. “Tokenized money is the base of the tokenized financial system,” Hurwitz said, calling recent financial innovation built on this foundation “exciting.” Paolo Ardoino says the stablecoin giant is "spreading the US dollar hegemony."

The biggest stablecoin of course is Tether, then USDC, which has about 40% of Tether's market cap, and 1/10th of the transactions.  The rest are minuscule in comparison.  Paypal (PYUSD) is fast becoming a player, but its volume is less than 1/1000 of Tether.

Four interesting things to note: 1) Will Visa and Mastercard be obsolete for ordinary transactions?  (They will still be relevant for short term loans). 2)  Tether is making billions a year in profit, but the Federal Reserve is losing money.  Of course they have different roles, but could Tether in the future be more powerful than the Federal Reserve (whose role will be reduced to just being the lender of last resort). ? 3) The US dollar is increasing in power (hegemony).  Not the Euro, not the Yen, not the UK Pound Sterling, not the Chinese Yuan.  The dollar reigns supreme despite the Fed.  4) Tether (and other stable coins) will save the Treasury market.  What do stablecoins use as assets? Primarily short-term US Treasury Bills.  When China is selling, Tether is buying.

================

Another thought.  Jay Powell vs Paolo Ardoino, who will win?  Jay Powell is just a bitter old man who hates Trump, and is obstructing the changes that need to occur.  His days are numbered - he will be gone by May 15, 2026.  

Paolo Ardoino is the future.  The future is America - not in the sense of the geographical 50 states, but the globalized dollar with its financial headquarters in El Salvador.    Long Live Tether!  Long Live the US Dollar!  Long Live US Treasuries!

================

Update 7/22/25:  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is a big fan of stablecoins, because he sees them as buyers of Treasuries, which will allow the US Treasury to rely less on the Federal Reserve. Bessent: We are going to keep the U.S. the dominant reserve currency in the world and we will use stable coins to do that. https://x.com/Acyn/status/1898117904362881193

June 2025 Forecast

 

I felt like doing another forecast, even though it would make more sense to wait because the Big Beautiful Bill hasn't even passed yet, the debt ceiling hasn't been raised and we don't know the total debt to the public at the end of the fiscal year on 9/30/25.  This is fun for me, and it's one of the reasons I started this blog.

This shows a breakdown in 2045, which is better than the previous forecast which showed it happening in 2042.  The biggest difference here is that I show everything in trillions, instead of billions.  The GDP forecast here is more pessimistic and it is based entirely on the recent CBO projections for Social Security.  For Social Security spending, it comes from the same source and I added a column for Social Security spending to make it clear that benefits would not be cut.  

For revenue, this mostly comes from the CBO March 2025 projected revenues, except the CBO assumes that revenue will magically increase by one-half percent of GDP every year which seems unrealistic.  But I do show revenue as a percent of GDP as higher than my previous forecast, except I cap it at 18.5% of GDP (for comparison it is 17.1% of GDP in 2025).  But I will humor the CBO a little, and so this does show an increase but not as much as the CBO projects.  The result of the increased revenue assumption is that the primary deficit will hang right around $1 trillion per year for the next 10 years.

As for interest, I think the CBO doesn't have a clue.  I am forecasting interest as 4% of the prior year's debt to the public.

So I think we have until 2045, 20 years from now, because the system really starts to break itself apart with hyperinflation.  A lot will happen between now and then.  Maybe spending will be cut a little and maybe the interest rates will be cut more.

This report has a shelf life of about 4 months and should be updated in November after we know the GDP for 9/30/25.

When will Ukraine's national debt be unsustainable?

Read:  https://english.pravda.ru/news/world/162945-ukraine-debt/, With War Unresolved, Ukraine’s Debt Nears 95% of GDP – $180 Billion

Economists warn that although Ukraine has avoided financial collapse so far, the long-term trajectory is unsustainable without a clear plan for economic revival, private investment, and eventual debt relief. With major parts of the country's industrial base still under threat or damaged, and reconstruction needs estimated to exceed $500 billion, Ukraine will face difficult fiscal decisions in the years to come. Meanwhile, negotiations with some international creditors over potential partial debt forgiveness or long-term restructuring have quietly resumed, according to sources familiar with the matter. The IMF is expected to publish its updated assessment of Ukraine's debt sustainability next month. Until then, Kyiv will continue to walk a tightrope — juggling national survival with the mounting weight of financial obligation.

I am really interested in what the IMF will say in July.  I wonder what they think the limit is?

CBO's 2025 Long-Term Projections for Social Security

 See: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61492

The main thing I care about is GDP projections, so what does this report say?  The numbers are in trillions.

Year	GDP
====	====
2025	30.4 
2026	31.6 
2027	32.8 
2028	34.1 
2029	35.4 
2030	36.7 
2031	38.2 
2032	39.6 
2033	41.2 
2034	42.7 
2035	44.4 
2036	46.0 
2037	47.7 
2038	49.5 
2039	51.3 
2040	53.2 
2041	55.2 
2042	57.2 
2043	59.2 
2044	61.3 
2045	63.5 
2046	65.7 
2047	68.0 
2048	70.4 
2049	72.9 
2050	75.4 

These are less positive than the numbers I previously forecast, but I think these are the ones to use, the next time I revise my doom and gloom report.

Oh, one more thing, the report distinguishes between scheduled and payable benefits (on page 5), with 2035 being the year that benefits can't be fully paid.  I assume that benefits will be paid as scheduled.  These are the years where there is a difference, through 2050.

Year	Sched	Payable
====	====	====
2035	6.0	4.7
2036	6.0	4.7
2037	6.0	4.7
2038	6.0	4.7
2039	6.0	4.6
2040	5.9	4.6
2041	5.9	4.6
2042	5.9	4.6
2043	5.9	4.6
2044	5.9	4.5
2045	5.9	4.5
2046	5.9	4.5
2047	5.9	4.5
2048	5.9	4.5
2049	5.9	4.5
2050	5.9	4.4

I Go Crazy

Hello, girl, it's been a while
Guess you'll be glad to know
That I've learned how to laugh and smile
Getting over you was slow
They say old lovers can be good friends
But I never thought I'd really see you
I'd really see you again

[Chorus]
I go crazy
When I look in your eyes, I still go crazy
No, my heart just can't hide
That old feelin' inside
Way deep down inside
Oh, baby
You know when I look in your eyes I go crazy

 

Ryan creates a website for the Magical Money Tree

 Hey kids, here is a new cartoon for you, straight from the mystical land of Smithville.  In this episode, our hero, Ryan, starts to proclaim the truth about the Magical Money Tree: the government can spend as much money as it wants and it doesn't have to tax or borrow the money to get it. (Instead, it can just sell bonds directly to the reserve bank).  So it is impossible for the government to default and there is no need to cut spending or for austerity measures.

 

Tune in once a month for more episodes.

US v Skrmetti

 I just want to make a note of this:  US v Skrmetti (https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/24pdf/23-477_2cp3.pdf).  This is a vastly simplified commentary, because the opinion is 118 pages long.  

Issue: Is it a violation of the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment for the State of Tennessee to block hormones which would change the sex of a minor child?

Conclusion:  No.  Opinion written by Roberts and joined by Thomas, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Barrett, and partially joined by Alito.  

Dissent by Sotomayor, Jackson, and Kagan. Male (but not female) adolescents can receive medicines that help them look like boys, and female (but not male) adolescents can receive medicines that help them look like girls. Tennessee’s law expressly classifies on the basis of sex and transgender status, so the Constitution and settled precedent require the Court to subject it to intermediate scrutiny.

I think the dissenters were listening to this song when they wrote it:  Blur - Girls and Boys

Girls who are boys who like boys to be girls
Who do boys like they're girls, who do girls like they're boys
Always should be someone you really love

My question:  Do laws which require men and women to use the bathroom consistent with their biological sex violate the Equal Protection Clause?  Can teenage boys demand the constitutional right to shower with teenage girls?  (There probably is a Beavis and Butthead cartoon about this).  

The Fed refuses to cut rates again and puts off the inevitable

 First read the announcement:  https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250618a.htm

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent.

For the record, I predicted that they would cut rates by 0.75% today and I was wrong.  The Fed of course already has a script to follow, so we can predict with high confidence that there will be a rate cut of 0.75% on Tuesday, June 17, 2025 when there is a scheduled Federal Reserve OMC meeting.  (https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2025/03/when-will-recession-start.html)

The Federal Reserve was following a script from September 2022 to December 2024 where it matched its actions almost exactly from 17 years earlier in 2005 to 2007.  But suddenly, in January 2025, the pattern broke. I think we are just in a holding pattern, and at any moment, the pattern will resume.  It will resume with a 0.75% rate cut.  Maybe I am wrong (I am wrong most of the time), but I think that we will still see an economic disaster occur again, following the 17 year + pattern.  

When will this occur?  For fun, I will guess and put out a date, which almost certainly will be wrong.  How about September 22, 2025, which just happens to be during Rosh Hashanah on Elul 29. (For fun, do a search on this blog for Elul 29 - it is a very inauspicious date.)  This would be exactly 17 years and 8 months after the events of January 22, 2008 (when the Federal Reserve did an emergency rate cut of 0.75%).

===============

Update: It just so happens that there is a FOMC meeting on Sept 16-17, 2025.  So I revise my date to September 17, 2025.

2025 Social Security Report

 The 2025 Social Security Report was just released.  First, let's look at the magic words. 

Under the Trustees’ intermediate assumptions, OASDI cost exceeds total income in every year of the long-range period, which runs from 2025 through 2099. The hypothetical combined trust fund reserves decline until reserves become depleted in 2034, one year earlier than projected in last year’s report. 

Consistent with practice since 1965, this report focuses on a 75-year open-group valuation to evaluate the long-range actuarial status of the OASDI program. The open-group valuation includes non-interest income and cost for past, current, and future participants through the year 2099. The open-group unfunded obligation measures the adequacy of financing over the period as a whole for a program financed on a pay-as-you-go basis. On this basis, payroll taxes and scheduled benefits for all participants are included through 2099. The open-group unfunded obligation increased from $22.6 trillion shown in last year's report to $25.1 trillion in this report.

So the open-group unfunded obligation was $25.1 trillion and was up $2.5 trillion since last year.  This is not good at all.

Compare this to my blog post about the 2024 Social Security Report. 

Now I want to see what the expected GDP is under intermediate assumptions.  Look at this table:  https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2025/VI_G2_OASDHI_GDP.html .  My quick calculations show an average increase in nominal GDP of 4.16% from 2025 to 2030, of 4.05% from 2030 to 2035, and 3.95% after 2035.  This is too complicated.  I say just use a 4.1% average increase in nominal GDP.  This is down from the 4.2% estimate from last year.

The last hard number I saw for GDP was just under $30.0 trillion as of 4/30/25. So the GDP as of 9/30/25 should be about $30.6 trillion as of 9/30/25 and then increase an average of 4.1% per year thereafter.  This will feed into the next financial projection.  I am just waiting for the updated CBO projections and what the Debt to the Public is as of 9/30/25 - I previously was estimating $30.4 trillion, but it will probably be about $30.0 trillion.

In conclusion, none of this is good news, there is rapidly increasing Social Security costs, the trust fund will be depleted 1 year early, and GDP is expected to decline slightly.  The only positive is that the national debt as of 9/30/25 may be slightly lower than previously estimated. 

============

Further thoughts:  Even though I just said the SSA saw GDP declining slightly, the actual GDP projected is actually higher in this forecast than the last one through 2070.  Compare the 2024 GDP numbers: https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2024/VI_G2_OASDHI_GDP.html to the 2025 GDP numbers: https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2025/VI_G2_OASDHI_GDP.html .  So I think don't change any forecasts of GDP based on this report.  So I would still go by my forecast I made in February 2025.

The Long Goodbye to Empire

 Read: https://michael-hudson.com/2025/06/the-long-goodbye-to-empire/

We are no longer living in the world that appreciates that theater. What he [Lindsey Graham] doesn’t understand as he invokes the world is that in view of the world, the very behavior he proposes is considered the actions of a rogue nation, a nation that is willing to threaten, disrupt global trade for the whole world. This is not admirable. This has nothing to do with bringing cards to a table. This is bullying behavior, and it is doubly offensive because the bully isn’t in charge anymore.

$314 billion deficit in May 2025

 Read: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61302/html

The fiscal year to date deficit is now $1.363 trillion, compared to $1.202 trillion at the same time last fiscal year.

FYTD interest is $674 billion, compared to $588 billion as of 4/30/25, so the interest in May was $86 billion.

DOD spending is $581 billion FYTD, so we now have seen interest permanently outspend defense.

The Treasury General Account has a closing balance on 5/30/25 of $351 billion, so it should have enough cash to cover June's deficit, but probably not July, so the debt limit should be raised soon.

The Federal Reserve had a cumulative deficit of $230.7 billion as of 5/28/25, compared to $227.7 as of 4/30/25, so it is still showing a loss of about $3 billion per month, which is not good.

The total US deficit for FY 2025 should be right at $2 trillion, with $1 trillion primary deficit and $1 trillion interest.  I am not seeing any savings from DOGE.

The debt to the public is now just below $30 trillion, essentially unchanged since January, but it will soar over $1 trillion, as soon as the limit is changed, probably in July.

Dark Maga

 This conspiracy theory called Dark Maga, which I don't believe, is that Peter Thiel, Elon Musk and JD Vance are plotting to overthrow the US government and rule it as a fascist dictatorship.  After the mysterious death of orange man, supposedly predicted by the Simpson (but Snopes says is false), JD Vance becomes president, and he and the PayPal Mafia will rule the country and the world.

Here is an article on it: https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/government/the-dark-maga-conspiracy-where-musk-destroys-trump-and-democracy/ar-AA1GceZh

The supposed guru of the Dark Enlightenment movement was Curtis Yarvin, 51, a Brown-educated, one-time pony-tailed computer coder. Under the alias of “Mencius Moldbug”, Yarvin wrote a 120,000-word blog called ‘An Open Letter to Open-Minded Progressives.’ It lobbed a hand grenade at the heart of democracy as long ago as 2008. At that time, the U.S. was enthralled by the idea of “Hope,” instilled by the election of Barack Obama as president.  Democracy was at the very heart of Obama’s philosophy.

Yarvin believed differently. He argued that America should be run by a “monarchy” presided over by a dictator CEO. Federal employees would be fired in such quantities that the government would no longer be manageable. Elections would be deemed obsolete. Policies would engender fear and distract the population. The Dark MAGA or Dark Enlightenment theory says it is the remit of the tech billionaires to run the world because they are the only ones with the resources and the know-how to fix it. To Yarvin, who likes to philosophize in computer idioms, democracy was “outdated software” and government needed a “reboot.” For years, Yarvin’s views were marginalized and ridiculed. Then, in 2025, they began to become a reality.

See also:  Curtis Yarvin’s Plot Against America https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/06/09/curtis-yarvin-profile (behind a paywall).

==============================

Another reference to this: 

 We are the ones who will not sit down, nor shut up, nor will we “trust the plan” while watching the digital prison being constructed for us by Peter Theil’s Palantir, while new versions of poison mRNA shots being unrolled with propaganda slogans of “gold-standard science”, “evidence-based policy” and “shared decision making” with any random dolt at the local pharmacy who is paid by HHS to inject mRNA into everything that moves.  Source: email from Sasha Latypova

=============================

Another link - it doesn't mention Dark Maga, but David Stockman hates Palantir.  https://www.davidstockmanscontracorner.com/palantir-grabbed-685-million-in-fraud-waste-and-abuse-in-2024-alone/

Palantir Technologies received approximately $684.5 million in federal government funding in calendar year 2024.

=============

And I didn't even mention Alex Karp , the CEO of Palantir.

The Supreme Court vs a San Francisco Judge: who decides

I heard this news and I should probably spend more than 2 minutes trying to figure out what is going on but this is my understanding:

The Supreme Court on Friday, May 30, voted 7-2 to stay a Massachusetts court order (signed by Judge Indira Talwani) which prohibited the US government from deporting some 500,000 immigrants who had temporary permission to live and work in the US.  The decision is 24A1079 Noem v. Doe .  Two justices dissented, Jackson and Sotomayor and most of the written decision is their dissents. (The appellate court is still reviewing the judge's orders other than the preliminary injunction, and the Supreme Court anticipates hearing the case through certiorari later).   

The news media reported that this decision allowed the Trump Administration to end parole for 500,000 immigrants and start deporting them.  See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-2hE3Y_8kQg ("Supreme Court allows Trump to end parole program for 500,000 immigrants").  This may be correct - it seems that DHS can deport these people while the appellate process is pending until the Supreme Court either declines certiorari or until they make a full ruling on the case agreeing with the judge.

So this decision was released on Friday, but it is unclear what time, probably before noon.  AFTER this decision was released, but also on Friday, a judge from San Francisco, Edward Chen, ruled that his injunction, separate from the Massachusetts one, was not affected by the Supreme Court decision on Friday.  Edward Chen's injunction had been overruled by the Supreme Court in a different case, 24A1059 Noem vs National TPS Alliance on May 19, which was very similar to the Noem v Doe order, except only Judge Jackson dissented, not Judge Sotomayor.  The Northern California case is No. 3:25-cv-1766.  (I don't understand how this case differs from the Massachusetts one because they both involve TPS protection for Venezuelans).  This is Chen's original order: https://www.aclusocal.org/sites/default/files/2025.03.31_93_order_granting_postponement_motion.pdf

In any event, Judge Chen's injunction was directly stayed by the Supreme Court on May 19, and Judge Talwani's injunction was directly stayed on May 30, but Judge Chen says that his injunction can continue.  His reasoning? 

The justices provided no rationale, which is common in emergency appeals. But they singled out applicants who had received work authorization and other paperwork with new expiration dates of Oct. 2, 2026.  Chen said at a hearing Friday that the justices could have stayed silent as to that subset of people, but didn't. His court continues to hear the underlying claim that the revocations by Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem were unlawful. https://www.yahoo.com/news/judge-blocks-administration-revoking-protected-192726356.html  

So Judge's Chen new order only helps about 5,000 Venezuelans who have Temporary Protected Status that expires exactly on October 2, 2026.  But is he disobeying the Supreme Court, or did he find a loophole in their decision?  I have no idea, this is very confusing.  It seems that he is choosing to disobey the Supreme Court order.  I don't know the answer, I am just pointing out the problem.

Tucker Carlson interview Sen. Ron Johnson

 I received an email from Colorado911Truth.org recommending that I watch this, which I have not done yet.

Sen. Ron Johnson: What’s Really in the “Big Beautiful Bill,” and Uncovering the Truth About 9-11  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hMk0orYKXQk

Review: Senator Ron Johnson [from Wisconsin] is known by some as the conscience of the Senate. In this remarkable interview he speaks candidly about his curiosity about 9/11 -- in particular the mysterious collapse of World Trade Center 7 (WTC 7).  As chair of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, he intends to investigate what happened on 9/11, focusing on WTC 7. Well before he gets to that topic, he speaks about the chronic debt crisis and it's dangers to America and to all of us.

Then he addresses the power of the pharmaceutical companies and the suppression of safe, effective, and inexpensive treatments for illnesses in order to promote the sale of pharmaceuticals; the callous treatment by congresspersons of parents whose children were severely harmed or died from vaccines; and the military-industrial complex and the insanity and failure of America's wars for the last 80 years. 

For your convenience, here are a few timestamps:

1:03:46: Johnson shares some of his personal health issues and how he cured them by getting off pharmaceuticals and taking natural substances.

1:17:00: Johnson speaks about Covid-19, the vaccine injured, and the suppression of effective treatments.

1:32:00: Tucker introduces the 9/11 issue. Johnson mentions Richard Gage, AIA, and Graeme MacQueen's 156 interviews of witnesses who heard explosions on 9/11. He mentions nanothermite, iron spheres, Barry Jennings, and the Alaska study. "Nothing adds up. . . . Trust me. There's a lot of unanswered questions," he concludes.

Tucker Carlson responds: 9/11 was a "seminal" event. "The world was changed, not for the better."

Toward the end of this frank discussion, Ron Johnson says, in regard to 9/11 that, like RFK, Jr. on the harms of vaccines, "his eyes were opened, and he couldn't close them." 

And then with remarkable honesty, Ron Johnson states, "And your eyes are opened up to the total corruption of the federal government agencies and you realize we've been lied to over and over and over and over again throughout history. . . ."   Tucker Carlson, when asked why he has come forward on the taboo 9/11 issue, soberly states: "Because I've been part of the cover up and I feel guilty about it. I'm trying to atone for my previous sins. That's the real reason."  Ron Johnson replies that in his case, as chairman of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, he has the responsibility to investigate. 

We think you will be heartened by this refreshing interview!