10% chance of total meltdown now

From: http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/todd-harrison-todd-harrison-minyanville-todd/11/4/2011/id/37761

“There’s a real danger of a disorderly default,” billionaire investor George Soros said in a speech in Budapest. Without support for Greek lenders, “you’re liable to have a run on the banks in other countries as well. That’s the danger of a meltdown.” 
-- Bloomberg, November 4

"What's yet unclear is what happens between now and the back half of this decade. ... The most intuitive answer is a whole lot of debt destruction and/or reorganization—that, in my eyes, is the only true medicine—but that can arrive in many ways, shapes and forms.  It can be orderly or disorderly; it can be done in concert, or it may lead to war.

Let's look at it this way—let's say that we assume calmer heads prevail, as a total meltdown is in nobody's best interest. Let's say, in the spirit of handicapping, we put a 20% probability that this thing unraveling. Even 15%. OK, maybe 10%.

That assumes a 1 in 10 chance that self-serving agendas emerge, political will evaporates or social mood erupts—or worse. A 1-in-10 chance.  Now, factor that (or whatever your odds you choose to use) into your forward risk profile, and allow for a margin for error."