Sunday, November 6, 2011

And again

This is like a game to me.  Here is another simulation, starting with OMB budget numbers, and my assumptions.

1.  GDP is 24633 in 2021 and will grow 4% thereafter.
2.  Revenue is 4923 in 2021 and will grow 5% thereafter.
3.  Outlays are 5697 in 2021 and will grow 6% thereafter.
4.  Fed ownership of government bonds is 1569 in 2011 and will grow 5% thereafter.

The crisis point here is in 2038, when GDP is 47983 and net public debt is 48276.

What if GDP grows by 5% and outlays grow by 5% per year after 2021? Then it is sustainable infinitely.

Update 6/19/2012:  This is model J-2.

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