This is an interesting question I have discussed before, although I stated it differently - that Fed assets should be subtracted from the national debt. Wouldn't this possibly lead to hyperinflation? Yes, but the original question was is there a point when the national debt becomes so big it reaches a crisis point.
Just to be clear, here are the numbers:
1. Debt held by the public (from the Treasury Dept) is currently $10.261 trillion.
2. U.S. Treasury securities - Notes and bonds, nominal held by the Federal Reserve, is currently $1.570 trillion.
3. The US GDP is currently $14.582 trillion (per the World Bank).
Using these number, the debt ratio is 59.6%.
If my latest theory is correct, then the maximum sustainable ratio is 165%. When will the US reach this point? That is a question for later, but it will be later than my previous projection of 2025, so I will say 2026.
Update 6/19/2011: This is model H-2. Model H is the theory that debt held by the public, less debt held by the Federal Reserve, cannot exceed 165% of GDP.
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