Dongguan is the Orange County of China

Boom city Dongguan faces bankruptcy.
Dongguan's derelict factories and huge deficits send chilling warning to a China in slowdown.
After three decades of spectacular growth, Guangdong's boom town of Dongguan is on the brink of bankruptcy. Up to 60 per cent of its villages are running up deficits and will soon need a bailout from the township, researchers at Sun Yat-sen University have discovered.
It is a dramatic turn of fortune for Dongguan - one of the richest cities in China - and could foreshadow a wider fiscal crisis as the country's economy cools.
Local government debt hit 10.7 trillion yuan (HK$13.16 trillion) nationwide at the end of 2010, equivalent to about 27 per cent of gross domestic product. Credit rating service Moody's estimates the actual figure could be about 14.2 trillion yuan.
Bai Jingming, a senior researcher at the Ministry of Finance, estimated in 2009 the total debt of village authorities could total 10 per cent of the country's GDP, but there is no official data.
Bai said many village chiefs he interviewed had no idea how much debt they had. Yet their failings could bring serious political and financial instability at higher level government right down to the grass roots.
Experts have found Dongguan's village debt woes stem from two factors: a tightly-bound landlord economy, plunged into crisis by failing factories in the global downturn, and political pressure on local village chiefs to pay generous "dividends" to voters under the immature rural election system.
--http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-27/chinese-mega-city-verge-bankruptcy

Orange County, California filed for bankruptcy in 1994. But I think there are a lot more similarities than that.  Orange County has Disneyland and South Coast Plaza, the largest mall in California.  Dongguan has the New South China Mall (the largest mall in the world), which had aspirations of becoming a Disneyland for shoppers, with 7 themed areas and an indoor roller coaster, but it is a total failure and is 99% empty.  Dongguan is a suburb of Guangzhou, and has 8.2 million residents in an area of about 2500 sq.km. "The most defining characteristic about this urban amalgam [Dongguan] is its lack of character."  Orange County is a suburb of Los Angeles and has 3 million residents in an area of 2500 sq.km.

==========================
Kind of on topic. Los Angeles should be split into 4 metropolitan areas:
Los Angeles County.  Population of LA+Orange is 12.9 million. GDP of LA+Orange is $736 bn.  LA by itself has 9.9 million.  GDP $556 bn (estimate).
Orange County.  Population 3 million.  GDP $180 bn (estimate).
Riverside-San Bernadino. Population 4.3 million. GDP $110 bn
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura (part of Ventura County).  Population 832,000. GDP $36bn

East African Federation

The East African Federation may become its own country in the future.  It is a proposed political union of Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda.  South Sudan would also like to join at some point.  The countries are planning a monetary union with a common currency, the East African Shilling.  The languages would be English, French and Swahili.

Its capital is Arusha, which is an interesting city.  It's not the capital of Tanzania (Dodoma is), and its not the largest city in Tanzania (Dar es Salaam is).  It was founded by German settlers and Boer refugees.  It has hosted the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanada, and there is a successor organization which will keep a branch open in Arusha. (The other branch will be in the The Hague).  Tanzania itself is a merger of two countries, Tanganyika and Zanzibar, just like Belgium is (Wallonia and Flanders).

ECB's new boondoggle

The ECB has a beautiful new headquarters being built.  It is only 48 stories tall (185 m), yet the cost is soaring to over 1.2 billion euros ($1.6 billion), and the completion date has been pushed back to 2014.   This is more expensive than the Burj Khalifa, which only cost $1.5 billion.

"The cost blowout comes as the ECB castigates profligate European governments for failing to control their own spending. It’s also another setback for a construction project that was delayed in 2008 when bids exceeded the ECB’s budget in the initial tender process. The building was originally scheduled for completion in 2011."
--http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-20/ecb-says-cost-of-new-frankfurt-skyscraper-soars-by-up-to-41-percent

It's cool to ride the bus .. in Denmark

Dupont Circle

Dupont Circle in Washington has 10 streets that intersect. This was part of L'Enfant's original design, although then it was called Pacific Circle. "The neighborhood is centered around the traffic circle, which is divided between two counterclockwise roads. The outer road serves all the intersecting streets, while access to the inner road is limited to through traffic on Massachusetts Avenue. Connecticut Avenue passes under the circle via a tunnel; vehicles on Connecticut Avenue can access the circle via service roads that branch from Connecticut near N Street and R Street.  The park within the circle is a gathering place for those wishing to play chess on the permanent stone chessboards."

Brilliant!

Lincoln memorial covered with algae

"The National Park Service is trying to remove a thick layer of green algae from the reflecting pool in front of the Lincoln Memorial less than a month after a $34 million overhaul was completed.
Workers desperately used nets to try to remove the build-up of algae and scum that covered one entire end of the pool Friday while tourists walked by puzzled by the slimy sight.
The reflecting pool was just re-engineered to be shallower in order to use less water, but the conditions have also proven to be perfect for an algae bloom."

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2209197/It-aint-easy-green-Lincoln-Memorial-reflecting-pool-covered-algae--just-weeks-34MILLION-renovation.html

So they spent $34 million to make the reflecting pool shallower to save water, which causes the water to be warmer. EPIC FAIL!

Wuhan is the Boston of China

Boston is 240 miles from New York, the commercial capital of the US.  It is one of the few US cities to have a subway, along with New York, Washington, and San Francisco.  The American Revolution started here, with the Boston Tea Party, Paul Revere's famous midnight ride, and the "shot heard around the world" at the Battle of Lexington.  Today, Boston is one of the top cities in the US, with 4.5 million people in its metro area.  It is a center of culture, with entities such as the Boston Symphony Orchestra, Boston Opera House and Boston Ballet.  It is one of the top university centers in the nation, with more than 100 colleges and universities, including Boston University, Boston College, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Harvard, Northeastern, Suffolk, and Tufts.  The Charles River runs through it. 

Wuhan is 520 miles from Shanghai.  It is the 5th Chinese city to have a metro, (after Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Guangzhou).  The Chinese Revolution of 1911, which overthrew the Qing Dynasty, originated in Wuhan, and the city has several museums about the revolution.  Wuhan has 6.4 million people in its urban area, and is one of the top 13 cities in China.  It is one of the top 3 scientific and education centers in China, along with Beijing and Shanghai.  It has 35 universities and colleges including Wuhan University, Hubei University, Hubei Institute of Fine Arts, and Wuhan Institute of Technology. The Yangtze and Han rivers run through it.

Germany will be the first to leave the Euro

" The positive expectation game for Germany achieved via the use of a common currency reached its peak when the debt of the countries in the south of Europe reached levels that could not be financed by the markets any longer.
There is no positive expectation for Germany in the EU at this point because the failed nations want everyone to share the losses. As a matter of fact, it appears that in order for the EU to survive, the Germans should start giving back their profits to rebalance the system. That could take the form of money printing, or of issuing eurobonds, or even of provision of German guaranties to other nations for financing their debt. As a result, if EU and the euro must continue to exist, the German standard of living must decline. This appears to be unacceptable to Germans as the recent poll showed.
One alternative is for Germany to get out of the euro. The cost will be high in the short term because the newly adopted German currency will appreciate substantially in relation to the euro and exports will slow down. However, Germany will be able to keep its current surplus and invest in other European countries by buying cheap assets, something that cannot be done with the euro at this point because recent experience has shown that internal devaluation has a minimum impact on asset prices and such process mainly affects the salaries of workers. Essentially, if Germany exits the euro, that will prevent its wealth from getting diluted, and it can use it to assist other countries in rebuilding. If Germany finances those countries now, it is possible that no positive effect will result in the longer-term because of the structural problems in their economies."
--http://seekingalpha.com/article/885911-germany-may-exit-the-euro-before-greece-does 

===================
"It's becoming clear that there is only one sensible solution ahead of us as the Eurozone’s problems evolve: Germany and the other countries suited to a strong currency should leave. If they do, the European Central Bank (ECB) will be free to pursue the easy money policies recommended by Keynesians and monetarists alike. It's increasingly clear that Germany has no option but to behave like any creditor seeking to protect its interests – and do its best to defuse the growing resentment against her from the Eurozone’s debtors."
--http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-25/guest-post-why-germany-going-exit-eurozone

Hong Kong is the San Francisco of China

San Francisco (named for Saint Francis) was founded in the 1770s by Spanish colonists.  It, along with all of California, became part of the US by treaties signed in 1847 and 1848 with the Californios and Mexico.  It sits on a peninsula, surrounded by water on 3 sides and is very hilly.  It is the second-most densely populated city in the US after New York.  It is one of the top tourist destinations in the world, and is a primary banking and finance center.  The metro area (excluding San Jose), has a population of about 4.3 million in its metro area.

Hong Kong was occupied by British forces in 1841 and was ceded in perpetuity in 1842.  Its sovereignty was transferred by the United Kingdom to China in 1997.  It includes Hong Kong Island, Kowloon Peninsula, and the New Territories. It has a deep natural harbor.  Hong Kong is one of the world's leading international financial centers, and is the most visit tourist destination in the world. It is one of the most densely populated areas in the world.  It has one of the highest per capita incomes in the world.  It has a population of about 7 million people.

See also: Evolving Urban Form - Hong Kong

Beijing is the Washington of China

Washington DC is the capital of the US.  It is a federal district, not part of any state, and was designed by French Architect Pierre L'Enfant.  It has many broad streets at angles, and many beautiful parks and monuments.  The Potomac River flows through it.  The President, currently Barack Obama, lives there in the White House, and Congress meets in the Capitol building.  Washington has many fine museums, such as the Smithsonian.  It also has a small subway system. The Washington Metropolitan Area (excluding Baltimore) has a population of 5.5 million, with a GDP of about $300 bn/year and it has a booming dynamic economy because of the many government contractors based there and many high-tech firms.

Beijing is the capital of China, and it is a direct-controlled municipality, not part of any province.  The Forbidden City, in the middle of Beijing, was the home of emperors for more than 500 years until the end of the Qing dynasty, and was the seat of government, but today it is vast museum and heritage site.  The President of China, Hu Jintao, lives near the Forbidden City, in an area known as Zhongnanhai.  The National People's Congress meets in the Great Hall of the People.  Beijing has a population of nearly 20 million, with a GDP of about $200 bn/year, although this is expected to surge to more than $1 tn/year by 2025.

Profile:  The Evolving Urban Form - Beijing

Shanghai is the New York of China

I think it might be interesting to compare different US cities with those in China.

New York is the capital of the world, and the commercial capital of the US, and has people from all over the world.  It has a population of 8.2 million (18.9 million in the metro area) and a GDP of about $1280 bn/year.  It had the tallest buildings in the world until 1974.  It is building One World Trade Center, which at 1776 ft will be one of the tallest buildings in the world.  It has an extensive subway system with over 200 route miles.

Shanghai is the commercial capital of China.  There were international settlements in Shanghai until WWII, which gave it a European influence.  Shanghai has a population of 23 million, and a GDP of about $300 billion, although this is expected to increase to above $1100 bn/year by 2025.  The Shanghai Metro system is the longest metro in the world with over 270 miles of track.  The Shanghai Tower is being built which will be the 2nd tallest building in the world at 632 m (2073 ft) when complete.

"Shanghai is a city much like NYC: a metropolis that attracts the best and brightest and boasts a strong entrepreneurial spirit."

For a profile see: The Evolving Urban Form - Shanghai

New List of Top Cities

Here is yet another list. Population is much more of a factor here, and skyline rankings also help boost the numbers.  GDP is also a factor although not as much.  So, if a city wants to move up on the list, it should attract more people and build more skyscrapers.  Makes sense.

London expects to be ranked #1 on every list, but they don't have that great of a skyline and there are lots of cities more populated.

Previous ranking was that of a list on May 19.

1. Tokyo (1)
2. New York (2)
3. Sao Paulo (24)
4. Seoul-Incheon (7)
5. Shanghai (12)
6. Chicago (9)
7. Moscow (32)
8. Hong Kong (28)
9. Osaka (4)
10. Buenos Aires (33)
11. Mexico City (30)
12. Mumbai  (85)
13. Beijing (27)
14. Guangzhou-Foshan (29)
15. Los Angeles (3)
16. London (6)
17. Manila (108)
18. Shenzhen (53)
19. Rio de Janeiro (36)
20. Singapore (25)
21. Jakarta  (96)
22. Paris (5)
23. Istanbul (56)
24. Houston (15)
25. Atlanta (23)
26. Sydney (20)
27. Dallas (17)
28. Philadelphia (13)
29. Toronto (21)
30. San Francisco (ex. San Jose) (10)
31. Melbourne  (22)
32. Tianjin (42)
33. Boston (16)
34. Miami (26)
35. Bangkok (117)
36. Madrid (34)
37. Delhi (-)
38. Cairo (-)
39. Chongqing (49)
40. Seattle (31)
41. Washington (ex. Baltimore) (8)
42. Nagoya (14)
43. Montreal (38)
44. Karachi (-)
45. Kuala Lumpur (-)
46. Taipei (44)
47. Kolkota (-)
48. Ruhr (11)
49. Dhaka (-)
50. Minneapolis (37)
51. Phoenix (40)
52. Detroit (39)
53. Lagos (-)
54. Berlin (55)
55. Barcelona (45)

Rhine-Ruhr

On my lists of cities, I have included Rhine-Ruhr as a city with about 11 million people.  But there is a difference between a city and a region.  For example, in China, the cities are more like districts, and only the urbanized areas should be included, and the only real metropolitan area in China is Guangzhong-Foshan.

And even having a contiguous developed area does not mean that it part of the same city.  A metropolitan area is the core city plus the surrounding suburbs.  But there could be multiple metropolitan areas that touch.   In the US, this is the difference between a "Metropolitan Statistical Area", and a "Consolidated Statistical Area".  Different metropolitan areas have their own energy and identity.  While there is a tendency to combine them to get up higher on "the list", I think it is better to be honest and consistent about the areas.  This isn't always easy.  And that is why I have more cities on the lists to encourage listing them separately.

Ok, back to Rhine-Ruhr.  It seems like this is really made up of 6 different "Larger Urban Zones", as they are known in Europe:
Ruhr LUZ (5.2 million)
Dusseldorf LUZ (1.5 million)
Monchengladbach LUZ (260,000)
Wuppertal LUZ (351,000)
Cologne LUZ (1.9 million)
Bonn LUZ (918,000)

It is really difficult to estimate GDP, but I am using these old numbers:
Ruhr (eu 30k/person; total $203 bn)
Dusseldorf (eu  54k/person; total $105 bn)
Monchengladbach (eu 30k/person; $10 bn)
Wuppertal (eu 30k/person; total $14 bn)
Cologne (eu 39k/person; total $96 bn)
Bonn (eu 34k/person; total $41 bn)
Total for area: $469 bn.  I previously estimated the larger region at $430 bn, so this seems reasonably accurate.



So there you go.  Rhine-Ruhr should no longer be listed as a city, but Ruhr is, and still impressive.

See also: http://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2012/03/rhine-ruhr-metro-area.html

Frankenstein is running for president of the Czech Republic

 

 

Dr. Vladimir Franz is running for president of the Czech Republic. He is in favor of sex, drugs, and rock 'n roll, and equal rights for vampires and zombies.

Chicago Style

D minus 90

Disaster is certain to come in about 90 days, as certain as if there were an asteroid heading directly towards the earth.  90 days (+ a few hours) will be Dec. 21.  We can't really expect Congress to get anything done between Dec. 21 and the end of the year, when everyone will be on vacation.

"100 Days Until Taxmageddon

Sunday will mark the start of the 100-day countdown to “Taxmageddon” – the date the largest tax hikes in the history of America will take effect.  They will hit families and small businesses in three great waves on January 1, 2013:

First Wave: Expiration of 2001 and 2003 Tax Relief. (The Bush-era tax cuts will all expire).

Second Wave: Obamacare Tax Hikes. (There are twenty new or higher taxes in Obamacare.) 
Third Wave: The Alternative Minimum Tax and Employer Tax Hikes"

Read more: http://atr.org/days-taxmageddon-a7203

If Obama wins re-election, he cannot expect any cooperation from the Republicans.  And indeed he is not planning on any.  He thinks they will cave in and give him everything he wants.  And if they won't he will work "around" them, like a dictator.
"So my expectation is that there will be some popping of the blister after this election, because it will have been such a stark choice. Where Republicans refuse to cooperate on things that I know are good for the American people, I will continue to look for ways to do it administratively and work around Congress."  Read more: http://swampland.time.com/2012/08/30/what-he-knows-now-obama-on-popularity-partisanship-and-getting-things-done-in-washington/

tldr:  There is a man-made disaster on its way in 90 days, like a very high-stake game of chicken, and neither side is blinking.

World Cities Culture Report

London commissioned the World Cities Culture Report, which goes into great detail on the cultural aspects of what it thinks are the 12 greatest culture capitals in the world:  Berlin, Istanbul, Johannesburg, London, Mumbai, New York, Paris, Singapore, Sao Paulo, Shanghai, Sydney and Tokyo.

It is an interesting list.  I have focused more on economic aspects of cities.  If I were to add to it, I would suggest the following: 
Vienna ("The Historic centre of Vienna is rich in architectural ensembles, including Baroque castles and gardens, as well as the late-19th-century Ringstrasse lined with grand buildings, monuments and parks.")
Moscow, which has many art museums and performing arts.
Rome.  The eternal city.
Madrid.  Former capital of the Spanish empire.
San Francisco.  One of the best cities for tourism.
Hong Kong.  The most visited city on earth.
Dubai.  The most interesting city in the middle east.
Beijing. The second busiest airport in the world, and capital.

Honorable mention: Seoul, Stockholm, Toronto, Chicago, Mexico City, Abu Dhabi, Randstad, Boston, Rhine-Ruhr, Washington DC
Conspicuous by their absence: Osaka, Nagoya, Los Angeles, Houston, Philadelphia, Dallas, Atlanta

One57

Situated on 157 West 57th street the tower will become the tallest residential building in the city when it is finished next year.


 

(Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2205834/One57-development-Buyers-Manhattans-expensive-high-rise-kept-secret.html) 

Philadelphia likes its trashy vacant lots

A Philadelphia real estate developer has a coffee shop next door to a trash-strewn vacant lot.  He calls 24 separate times to complain and offers to buy it but the city ignores him.  So he decides to take matters into his own hands and - horror of all horrors! - cleans it up himself. He halls 40 tons of trash away.


After

For his efforts, he gets threatened with a lawsuit and is told to return it to its prior condition.

The City of Philadelphia .. EPIC FAIL!

432 Park Ave

 432 Park Ave. will be 420 m (1379 ft) tall when completed, taller than the Empire State Building, but not as tall as 1 WTC.  A penthouse on top just went on sale for $85 million.

"At 1,302 ft above the street, the penthouse will be taller than the observation deck at One World Trade Center, which is 1,251 feet, even though the building is 1,776 feet with a 408-foot antenna.  It will be in competition with other buildings, such as One57, a glass-walled, 1,000-foot-tall design on West 57th street."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2204571/432-Park-Ave-New-York-Citys-highest-apartment-goes-market-85-million.html

Navy Style

Riots everywhere

First of course, the Arab world is furious with the US for allowing free speech on Youtube, and the US Ambassador to Libya, Chris Stevens, was murdered on 9/11.  There is also violence in Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Yemen, Sudan, Gaza, etc.  (Etc. includes India, Bangladesh, Indonesia).

Second, there are labor strikes in South Africa.  A couple months ago, a Chinese supervisor was killed at a Zambian mine during a labor dispute.

Third, there are austerity protests in Spain, Greece and Portugal.

Fourth, the Chicago Teachers Union decides it is a good time to go on strike, because a 16% raise over the next 4 years isn't enough.

Fifth, but not least, China decides to make an issue about the Senkaku Islands to distract its citizens over the collapsing economy.  This isn't just a few people protesting, but hundreds of thousands of people going wild, overturning any Japanese-made car, and burning Japanese offices.  This could lead to war.

Apple Computer stock as a money substitute

I don't really like Apple Computer or understand its stock valuation, but I heard or read something about Apple Computer stock being a money substitute along with gold.  How does it compare to gold?

The price of gold was $1604 on August 3, 2012.  Today (Sept. 14) it is $1771, for a gain of 10.4%.

The price of AAPL was $616 on August 3.  Today (Sept. 14) it is $693, for a gain of 12.5%.

I'd say it compares pretty well.  Actually almost anything is better than the dollar at this point.

Chinese colonies in Africa

China is building colonies in Africa, where it can send people to relieve overpopulation, and where it can get farmland and natural resources.  They give loans to African countries but they always have strings attached, for example, they must use Chinese construction companies.

"Unlike with the Spratly Islands, Okinawa or Scarborough shoal, China doesn't need to occupy Africa militarily. As with other imperialist countries of the past, China knows that collaborators are the most efficient method of imperialism. China only needs to bribe Africa's corrupt leaders to get all the resources and land it needs.
China is proudly flaunting its $20bn of new loans to African countries. We've heard all this before and know that most of the money will end up in chinese and african dictators' pockets. Impoverished african nations will be fleeced over the next 30 years to service the debts incurred for expensive and shoddily built factories that were not needed in the first place. Roads will be built at exorbitant prices such as Sierre Leone's most expensive road in the world. This is the true face of China's poisoned embrace of Africa."
--http://witnesshr.blogspot.com/2012/07/chinas-new-african-colonies-sanctioned.html

There are currently 6 Chinese colonies in Africa.  They call them "Special Economic Zones".  They are: Mauritius-JinFei; Nigeria-Ogun; Nigeria-Lekki; Zambia-Chambishi/Lusaka; Egypt-Suez; Ethiopia-Eastern.

=========================
Mauritius is becoming the Singapore of Africa.

"Unlike China’s five other SEZs in Africa which offer the potential for extraction, production and manufacturing, it is intended that the Jinfei zone will eventually house the headquarters for Chinese investments in Africa. As more information surfaces, it appears that the main role of the zone will be to provide offices, hotels, apartments, recreational services, schools and medical facilities."
--http://thinkafricapress.com/mauritius/sez-jinfei-china-problems-hasty-investment 

====================
See: http://www.chinaafricarealstory.com/2012/09/chinese-finance-abuja-light-rail-in.html

China is loaning Nigeria $500 million for the light rail project in Abuja.  Of course, the contractor is China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC), so Chinese companies benefit even if the loan isn't repaid.

The beatings will continue until morale increases

"The Fed just changed the game.  Whereas in the past, the Fed always set a defined amount of Fed purchases, this time they're saying that the easing will continue until morale improves."

--http://www.businessinsider.com/why-this-fed-decision-is-a-huge-change-from-every-decision-the-fed-has-made-in-the-past-2012-9

The recently announced QE3, which will buy mortgages, will only continue the economic morass that we are in, and I will explain why.

But first, look at what we would need for a true recovery, which requires only 2 things: 1) sound money, and 2) clearing off the over hang of bad debt either through repayment, forgiveness or default.  By sound money, I don't necessarily mean the gold standard, but a currency that would depreciate only about 10% per year against gold, plus would provide interest to savers to make up for the loss.  If savers could get 5% guaranteed, that would go a long way towards restoring investor confidence.

Instead this program will reduce returns on investment even further.  It is declaring war on investors and savings.  It doesn't clear off the mountain of debt, instead it makes it easier to maintain which will cause it to grow.  Which means the crash, when it comes, will be even more disastrous.

Reducing the interest rates on mortgages will help nobody but the zombie banks.  Nobody thinks that mortgage rates are too high. ("Honey, the rate is now 2.875% but that's too much.  If it were only 2.5%").  Banks can't afford to lend at that low a rate, because there is too much risk, so this will result in the Fed taking over the entire mortgage industry.

This may not even help real estate prices.  Nobody wants to buy real estate because it isn't a good investment, and because people are worried about losing their jobs.

One thing this will do is increase inflation by increasing the money supply.  Look at how gold has jumped.  It was below 1600 just a couple of months ago and now it is above 1770.  It will increase speculation and help stock prices.  It  will create new bubbles, which will then inevitably pop.

==============
Update:  Long-term interest rates soared after this announcement.  The 10-year treasury yield jumped almost immediately from 1.72% to 1.80%, because of expectation of inflation.   EPIC FAILURE.

===================
"Our quote of the week award recipient is none other than Atlanta Fed's Dennis Lockhart for the following pearl of wisdom:

• LOCKHART SAYS FED WILL BUY BONDS UNTIL U.S. EMPLOYMENT IMPROVES.

Considering that employment is bad because of Fed "bond buys", which are preventing price clearing and discovery, and perpetuating the worst capital misallocation environment in the history of the world (if not for Apple's professional line waiters), one should just replace "buy bonds" with "continue beatings" and "U.S. employment" with "morale."
--http://www.zerohedge.com/news/quote-week-1

You'll never be Chinese

http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/mark-kitto-youll-never-be-chinese-leaving-china/

China, politically, culturally and as a society, is inward looking. It does not welcome intruders—unless they happen to be militarily superior and invade from the north, as did two imperial dynasties, the Yuan (1271-1368) and the Qing (1644-1911), who became more Chinese than the Chinese themselves. Moreover, the fates of the Mongols, who became the Yuan, and Manchu, who became the Qing, provide the ultimate deterrent: “Invade us and be consumed from the inside,".

Leadership requires empathy, an ability to put yourself in your subordinate’s shoes. It also requires decisiveness and a willingness to accept responsibility. Believing themselves to be unique, the Chinese find it almost impossible to empathise.

"A China that leads the world will not offer the chance to be Chinese, because it is impossible to become Chinese."

CBO expects a surplus in September

"CBO estimates that the Treasury Department will report a deficit of $1.17 trillion for the first 11 months of fiscal year 2012. In CBO’s most recent budget projections, the agency estimated that the deficit for fiscal year 2012 (which will end on September 30, 2012) will total $1.13 trillion."

Somehow I am skeptical.

Gangnam Style Wedding

Supertalls in Tianjin

Tianjin will soon have 3 of the tallest buildings in the world. 

1.  The Goldin Finance 117, which will be 597 meters (1959 ft) with 117 stories and is expected to be completed in 2014.
2. The Rose Rock International Finance Center, which will be 588 m (1,929 ft).  It is being built by the Rockefellers and broke ground in December 2011.
3. The CTF Tower will be  530 m (1740 ft).  It will have "retail at the base, topped with offices, 300 residential units, and a 350-room, 5-star hotel."

In comparison, 1 WTC in NY will be 541m when complete.

Tianjin will surely soon become one of the top 25 cities in the world, along with nearby Beijing.  I currently have it ranked #43 and #5 in China.

==========================
Besides these there is the R&F Tower, which will be 468m (1535 ft) with 91 stories when completed in 2015.  It's not a supertall, but still taller than the Empire State Building.

D minus 100

Doomsday is coming on December 21, 2012!  So say the ancient Mayans. And even if there are no natural disasters, we have man-made ones to worry about.  So today is D minus 100, plus some change (hours). The clock has started. 

See the official website at http://www.december212012.com/

The coming fiscal cliff

The fiscal cliff isn't a warning.  It's coming, if Obama is re-elected.  The Republicans will be vengeful and won't go along with anything he wants:

"In other words, if the American people choose Obama and his call for higher taxes this November, Republicans will let them experience it this January. In addition to the expiring Bush tax cuts, which will inflict a $165 billion tax hike on all working Americans, payroll taxes are set to go up by $125 billion, estate taxes by $13 billion and business taxes by $20 billion. The Alternative Minimum Tax patch will also expire, costing taxpayers another $118 billion, as will $21 billion in Obama stimulus tax cuts. Another $23 billion in new Obamacare taxes will also kick in.
All told, under current law, taxes will rise by $494 billion next year. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that if these tax hikes are implemented, along with $100 billion in spending cuts that Obama signed into law as part of last August’s debt deal, our economy will shrink and unemployment will rise to 9.1 percent."
--http://washingtonexaminer.com/what-would-obamas-second-term-look-like/article/2507358

You like taxes?  We will give you taxes.

===============================
The AMT will be a litmus test. It is the most likely tax to be cut back.  Democrats can't imagine that Republicans wouldn't want to change it, but believe it buddy.

"If Congress doesn’t act to prevent the $92 billion tax increase, the number of households facing the alternative tax would increase to 32.9 million from 4.4 million, according to the Internal Revenue Service. That’s an average unanticipated tax increase of about $2,800.
The effect from the AMT, as the parallel tax is known, would be immediate in early 2013 because Congress hasn’t addressed the change for tax year 2012, and taxpayers start filing returns in January. A retroactive AMT change is much more cumbersome than retroactive changes in the 2013 income tax rates, which can be handled through paycheck-withholding adjustments, said Kenneth Kies, a Republican tax lobbyist in Washington.
“The IRS would be paralyzed, not to mention the fact that the taxpayers wouldn’t get the joke,” said Kies, a Republican tax lobbyist in Washington. “This just has to be done in December.”
--http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-10/need-for-action-on-fiscal-cliff-comes-from-alternate-tax

Oh, the horrors!  The IRS would be paralyzed.

Hi Tech on Roosevelt Island

http://americancity.org/forefront/view/Tech-and-the-city

"“Because of the really strong transit links,” says Pinsky in retrospect, “what Roosevelt Island offers you is the chance to, one the one hand, create a real campus, which was very important to these schools, but on the other hand, have that campus be easily accessible.” Isolation within reach was one reason a small pox hospital serving New York City residents was built on the island’s remote southern tip in the mid-1800s. Close enough, but not too close.
It’s a second hospital that provides the 10-acre site for what will be known, somewhat awkwardly, as CornellNYC Tech. Opened in 1939 when it was still called Welfare Island, Coler-Goldwater Memorial Hospital’s Goldwater Campus is a forgotten-looking brick complex, much of it resembling an Eastern Bloc institution. “It has infrastructure that’s appropriate for a 70-year-old hospital,” says Pinsky. Goldwater’s patients were already slated to be moved to Harlem by the end of next year. The city’s $100 million will be put to tearing down its buildings and putting in a telecommunications infrastructure, ending up with a wired greenfield."

Want a job? Don't go into architecture

http://www.salon.com/2012/02/04/the_architecture_meltdown/singleton/
"A once-thriving profession, one that requires considerable education and work ethic, and which has traditionally served a wide range of functions — designing mansions for the 1 percent as well as public libraries — is in trouble."

Top Megacities in the World

1. Tokyo-Yokohama 37,126,000    
2. Jakarta 26,063,000    
3. Seoul-Incheon 22,547,000    
4. Delhi 22,242,000    
5. Manila 21,951,000    
6. Shanghai 20,860,000    
7. New York 20,464,000    
8. Sao Paulo 20,186,000    
9. Mexico City 19,463,000    
10. Cairo 17,816,000    
11. Beijing 17,311,000    
12. Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto 17,011,000    
13. Mumbai 16,910,000    
14. Guangzhou-Foshan 16,827,000    
15. Moscow 15,512,000    
16. Dhaka 15,414,000    
17. Los Angeles, CA 14,900,000
18. Kolkota 14,374,000
19. Karachi 14,198,000    
20. Buenos Aires 13,639,000    
21. Istanbul 13,576,000    
22. Rio de Janeiro 12,043,000    
23. Shenzhen 11,885,000    
24. Lagos  11,547,000    
25. Paris 10,755,000    
26. Nagoya 10,027,000

Source: http://www.newgeography.com/content/002808-world-urban-areas-population-and-density-a-2012-update

This list continues through all 847 cities in the world with a population greater than 500,000:
http://www.demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf

The Trillion Dollar Coin, Part IV

Idiots keep bringing this up:

http://www.correntewire.com/beyond_debtdeficit_politics_the_60_trillion_plan_for_ending_federal_borrowing_and_paying_off_the_nat
"I’ll estimate, roughly, that a $20 T coin is enough for that, including about $4.0 T to more than close the expected gap between tax revenues and Government spending through the 2014 elections, and the rest for paying down the national debt further."

Why stop at trillions?  Why not quadrillions?

Top 450 Cities

Here is a mega-list with lots of new Chinese cities added. The only Chinese cities which are combined on the list are Guangzhou and Foshan.  We need to get familiar with these cities.

The number in parenthesis is the rank on the previous top 325 list.

1. Tokyo/Yokohama (4)
2. New York (1)
3. Los Angeles (8)
4. London (9)
5. Paris (7)
6. San Francisco/San Jose (20)
7. Shanghai (3)
8. Chicago (5)
9. Hong Kong (19)
10. Rhine-Ruhr (inc. Bonn) (6)
11. Washington DC (ex. Baltimore) (2)
12. Osaka/Kobe (17)
13. Houston (29)
14. Philadelphia (35)
15. Beijing (14)
16. Seoul/Incheon (28)
17. Sao Paulo (12)
18. Moscow (21)
19. Dallas/Ft. Worth (26)
20. Nagoya (109)
21. Boston (11)
22. Randstad (31)
23. Toronto (16)
24. Sydney (10)
25. Singapore (30)
26. Atlanta (47)
27. Miami (38)
28. Milan, Italy (15)
29. Melbourne (56)
30. Guangzhou/Foshan (50)
31. Mexico City (27)
32. Seattle (77)
33. Buenos Aires (46)
34. Istanbul (34)
35. Phoenix (80)
36. Rio de Janeiro (53)
37. Madrid (24)
38. Abu Dhabi (101)
39. Minneapolis/St. Paul (83)
40. Montreal (44)
41. Detroit/Windsor (74)
42. Frankfurt (23)
43. Tianjin (14, with Beijing)
44. Brussels (39)
45. Barcelona (65)
46. Kuwait City (82)
47. San Diego (86)
48. Denver (89)
49. Taipei (42)
50. Chongqing (129)
51. Riyadh (40)
52. Munich/Augsburg (71)
53. Naples, Italy (214)
54. Shenzhen (68)
55. Doha, Qatar (85)
56. Berlin (32)
57. Tampa/St. Petersburg, FL (110)
58. Brisbane (131)
59. Oslo (33)
60. Cleveland/Akron, OH (114)
61. Cincinnati/Dayton, OH (124)
62. St. Louis, MO (108)
63. Portland, OR (116)
64. Lisbon (61)
65. Vancouver, Canada (41)
66. Rome (92)
67. Stockholm (22)
68. Perth (201)
69. Pittsburg, PA (126)
70. Copenhagen (51)
71. Baltimore, MD (- previously combined with Washington)
72. Sapporo (-)
73. Fukuoka, Japan (117)
74. Charlotte, NC (112)
75. Hamburg, Germany (98)
76. Tel Aviv/Jaffa (64)
77. Hangzhou, Zhejiang (156)
78. Wuxi, Jiangsu, China (-)
79. Bangkok (49)
80. Brasilia (115)
81. Kansas City (118)
82. Indianapolis (120)
83. Orlando (122)
84. Qingdao, Shandong, China (152)
85. Dubai/Sharjah (54)
86. Birmingham, UK (100)
87. Vienna (45)
88. Mumbai (18)
89. Monterrey, Mexico (107)
90. Salt Lake City (193)
91. Zurich (13)
92. Nanjing, Jiangsu, China (206)
93. Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill, NC (210)
94. Athens (52)
95. Santiago, Chile (67)
96. Sacramento, CA (138)
97. Columbus, OH (132)
98. Las Vegas (145)
99. Wuhan, Hubei (176)
100. Jakarta (36)
101. Mecca, Saudi Arabia (294)
102. Dublin (66)
103. Hartford, CT/Springfield, MA (179)
104. Leeds, UK (199)
105. Stuttgart (143)
106. Busan, South Korea (95)
107. Austin, TX (166)
108. Tehran, Iran (43)
109. Manchester, UK (180)
110. Jeddah (Jiddah), Saudi Arabia (142)
111. Milwaukee, WI (181)
112. Manila (70)
113. Johannesburg/East Rand, South Africa (48)
114. San Antonio, TX (183)
115. Chengdu, Sichuan, China (134)
116. Dalian, Liaoning, China (125)
117. Nashville, TN (186)
118. Virginia Beach/Norfolk, VA (184)
119. Shenyang, Liaoning, China (221)
120. New Orleans, LA (187)
121. Delhi (62)
122. Geneva (59)
123. Monaco (111)
124. Kuala Lumpur (60)
125. Macau (149)
126. Recife, Brazil (163)
127. Panama City (121)
128. Honolulu, HI (128)
129. Gold Coast City, Australia (177)
130. Curitiba, Brazil (178)
131. Caracas, Venezuela (55)
132. Auckland, New Zealand (25)
133. St. Petersburg, Russia (127)
134. Kyiv (Kiev), Ukraine (81)
135. Xiamen, Fujian, China (208)
136. Calgary, Canada (130)
137. Warsaw (37)
138. Cairo (63)
139. Karachi, Pakistan (75)
140. Kolkata (Calcutta) (103)
141. Lima, Peru (78)
142. Bogota, Colombia (57)
143. Lagos, Nigeria (69)
144. Fortaleza, Brazil (175)
145. Salvador, Brazil (165)
146. Kaohsiung, Taiwan (148)
147. Helsinki, Finland (121)
148. Prague, Czech Republic (72)
149. Budapest, Hungary (84)
150. Bucharest, Romania (73)
151. Belo Horizonte, Brazil (106)
152. Bangalore, India (123)
153. Hyderabad, India (167)
154. Glasgow, Scotland (104)
155. Cape Town, South Africa (105)
156. Chennai, India (140)
157. Dhaka, Bangladesh (87)
158. Dongguan, Guangdong (-)
159. Xian, Shaanxi, China (262)
160. Suzhou, Jiangsu, China (136)
161. Ningbo, Zhejiang (-)
162. Jinan, Shandong, China (289)
163. Harbin, Heilongjiang (263)
164. Changzhou, Jiangsu, China (-)
165. Hefei, Anhui, China (-)
166. Luanda, Angola (93)
167. Xuzhou, Jiangsu (-)
168. Changsha, Hunan (-)
169. Fuzhou, Fujian (-)
170. Ankara, Turkey (160)
171. Tangshan, Hebei (-)
172. Zhengzhou, Henan (-)
173. Edinburgh, Scotland (102)
174. Wellington, New Zealand (133)
175. Manama, Bahrain (141)
176. Luxembourg (139)
177. Ho Chi Min City, Vietnam (88)
178. Isle of Jersey (135)
179. Talinn, Estonia (155)
180. Port Louis, Mauritius (157)
181. Reykjavik, Iceland (161)
182. Strasbourg, France (279)
183. Lausanne, Switzerland (249)
184. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia (242)
185. Lyon, France (188)
186. Bern, Switzerland (264)
187. Abuja, Nigeria (281)
188. Isle of Man (137)
189. Benidorm, Spain (203)
190. Hamilton, Bermuda (190)
191. Almaty, Kazakhtan (79)
192. Bratislava, Slovakia (91)
193. Montevideo, Uruguay (228)
194. Muscat, Oman (150)
195. Nairobi, Kenya (172)
196. Algiers, Algeria (76)
197. Casablanca, Morocco (90)
198. Tripoli, Libya (96)
199. Khartoum, Sudan (97)
200. Zagreb, Croatia (99)
201. Kinshasa, DR-Congo (266)
202. Lahore, Pakistan (227)
203. Ahmedabad, India (154)
204. Changchun, Jilin, China (288)
205. Nanchang, Jiangxi (-)
206. Zhuhai, Guangdong
207. Nanning, Guangxi Zhuang AR
208. Shijiazhuang, Hebei
209. Jiangmen, Guangdong
210. Zhongshan, Guangdong
211. Bandung, Indonesia (171)
212. Guadalajara, Mexico (146)
213. Porto Alegre, Brazil (147)
214. Turin, Italy (189)
215. Haikou, Hainan
216. Wenzhou, Zhejiang
217. Taichung, Taiwan (-)
218. Baghdad, Iraq (94)
219. Pune, India (164)
220. Surat, India (239)
221. Krakow, Poland (119)
222. Gibraltar (153)
223. Durban, South Africa (158)
224. Malta (159)
225. Medellin, Colombia (162)
226. Hanoi, Vietnam (168)
227. Surabaya, Indonesia (169)
228. Colombo, Sri Lanka (170)
229. Alexandria, Egypt (173)
230. Yangon, Burma/Myanmar (222)
231. Chittagong, Bangladesh (-)
232. Shantou, Guangdong, China (-)
233. Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire (250)  
234. Accra, Ghana
235. Beirut, Lebanon
236. Ottawa, Canada
237. Providence, RI
238. Nassau, Bahamas
239. Memphis, TN
240. Road Town, British Virgin Islands
241. Richmond, VA
242. George Town, Cayman Islands
243. Jacksonville, FL (197)
244. Daegu, South Korea
245. Hanover, Germany
246. Kunming, Yunnan
247. Astana, Kazakhstan
248. Kano, Nigeria
249. Taiyuan, Shanxi, China
250. Faisalabad, Pakistan
251. Dar es Salaam, Tanzania   
252. Islamabad/Rawalpindi, Pakistan
253. Damascus, Syria
254. Kanpur, India
255. Santo Domingo,    Dominican Rep.
256. Jaipur, India
257. Kabul, Afghanistan
258. Lucknow, India
259. Medan, Indonesia
260. Amman, Jordan
261. Campinas, Brazil
262. Harare, Zimbabwe
263. Puebla, Mexico
264. Izmir, Turkey
265. Cali, Colombia
266. Mashhad, Iran
267. Dakar, Senegal
268. Aleppo, Syria
269. Louisville, KY
270. Oklahoma City, OK
271. Quito, Ecuador
272. Minsk, Belarus
273. Adelaide, Australia
274. Baku, Azerbaijan
275. Katowice, Poland
276. Birmingham, AL
277. Penang Island, Malaysia
278. Ljubljana, Slovenia (218)
279. Sofia, Bulgaria
280. Tunis, Tunisia
281. Omaha, NE
282. Pretoria, South Africa   
283. Guatemala City, Guatemala
284. Ibadan, Nigeria
285. Nagpur, India
286. Pyongyang, North Korea
287. Guayaquil, Ecuador
288. Urumqi, Xinjiang Uyghur, China
289. Ordos City, Inner Mongolia, China
290. Hohhot, Inner Mongolia
291. Ulan Bator, Mongolia
292. Lhasa, Tibet
293. Port-au-Prince, Haiti
294. Tashkent, Uzbekistan (230)
295. Bamako, Mali
296. Douala, Cameroon
297. Guiyang, Guizhou, China
298. Zibo, Shangdong, China
299. Lanzhou, Gansu, China
300. Handan, Hebei, China
301. Valencia, Spain
302. Yekaterinburg, Russia
303. Belgrade, Serbia
304. Rochester, NY
305. Vilnius, Lithuania
306. Buffalo, NY
307. San Jose, Costa Rica
308. Tulsa, OK (237)
309. Sana'a, Yemen
310. Yerevan, Armenia (243)
311. Tbilisi, Georgia
312. Riga, Latvia
313. Nicosia, Cyprus
314. Yaoundé, Cameroon
315. Indore, India
316. Asunción,    Paraguay   
317. Bhilai, India
318. Coimbatore, India   
319. Kathmandu, Nepal   
320. Kumasi, Ghana       
321. Patna, India
322. San Juan, Puerto Rico
323. Anshan, Liaoning, China
324. Belém, Brazil   
325. Gujranwala, Pakistan   
326. Havana, Cuba       
327. Tananarive, Madagascar   
328. Goiânia, Brazil   
329. Hyderabad, Pakistan (NOT India)   
330. Isfahan, Iran
331. Kampala, Uganda
332. Dammam, Saudi Arabia   
333. Cebu City, Philippines
334. Quanzhou, Fujian, China   
335. Huizhou, China
336. La Paz, Bolivia   
337. Maputo, Mozambique       
338. Bhopal, India   
339. Toluca, Mexico       
340. Maracaibo, Venezuela
341. San Salvador, El Salvador
342. Hiroshima, Japan
343. Belneario Camboriu, Brazil (258)
344. Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago
345. El Paso, TX
346. Brunei
347. Rosario, Argentina
348. Leon, Mexico
349. Santiago, Dominican. Rep.
350. Torreon, Mexico
351. Novosibirsk, Russia
352. Marseille, France
353. Nizhny-Novgorod, Russia   
354. Lusaka, Zambia
355. Rabat, Morocco
356. Manaus, Brazil
357. Barranquilla, Colombia
358. Tijuana, Mexico
359. Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
360. Agra, India   
361. Santa Cruz, Bolivia
362. Jilin City, Jilin, China
363. Baotou, Inner Mongolia, China
364. Brazzaville, R-Congo
365. Conakry, Guinea
366. Phnom Penh, Cambodia
367. Chandigarh, India
368. Kharkov, Ukraine   
369. Gaza, Palestinian Territories
370. Huainan, Anhui, China
371. Kitakyushu, Japan
372. Qiqihar, Heilongjiang, China   
373. Sendai, Japan       
374. Gwangju, South    Korea
375. Weifang, Shangdong, China
376. Yantai, Shandong, China
377. Daejeon, South Korea
378. Weihai, Shandong, China
379. Colorado Springs, CO
380. Albuquerque, NM
381. Nuremberg/Nurnberg, Germany
382. Canberra, Australia
383. Edmonton, Canada
384. Songdo, South Korea
385. Belfast, Northern Ireland, UK
386. Gothenburg, Sweden
387. Libreville, Gabon
388. Kingston, Jamaica
389. Goa, India
390. Iskandar/Johor Bahru, Malaysia
391. Jerusalem, Israel/East Jerusalem, Palestine
392. Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
393. Dushanbe, Tajikistan
394. Chisinau, Moldova
395. Ashgabat, Turkmenistan
396. Queretaro, Mexico
397. San Luis Potosi, Mexico
398. Merida, Mexico
399. Tucson, AZ
400. Fresno, CA
401. Tulsa, OK
402. Tirana, Albania
403. Sarajevo, Bosnia-Herzegovina
404. Yinchuan, Ningxia Hui AR, China
405. Ciudad Juárez, Mexico
406. Volgograd, Russia
407. Sevilla (Seville), Spain
408. Liverpool, UK
409. Sheffield, UK
410. Freetown, Sierra Leone
411. Harrisburg, PA
412. Mannheim, Germany
413. Managua, Nicaragua
414. Lille, France/Kortrijk, Belgium
415. McAllen, TX
416. Tainan, Taiwan
417. Luoyang, Henan, China
418. Grand Rapids, MI
419. Albany, NY
420. Knoxville, TN
421. Porto, Portugal
422. Bristol, UK
423. Southampton, UK
424. Tegucigalpa, Honduras
425. Acapulco, Mexico
426. Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea
427. N'Djamena, Chad
428. Equitorial Guinea
429. Anchorage, AK
430. Lincoln, NE
431. Greensboro/Winston-Salem, NC
432. Greenville/Spartanburg, SC
433. Ufa, Russia
434. Samara, Russia
435. Rostov-on-Don, Russia
436. Jiangyin, Jiangsu, China
437. Xiangyang (Xiangfan), Hubei, China
438. Fangchenggang, Guangxi Zhuang, China
439. Xining, Qinghai, China
440. Zhuzhou, Hunan, China
441. Xiangtan, Hunan, China
442. Liuzhou, Guangxi Zhuang, China   
443. Yangzhou, Jiangsu, China   
444. Haikou, Hainan, China
445. Little Rock, AR
446. Taizhou, Jiangsu, China   
447. Cartagena, Colombia
448. Guernsey
449. Boise, Idaho
450. Arusha, Tanzania

Gold prices surge in expectation of QE3

Gold prices were stuck at about 1600 for a few months. On 5/16/12, gold was at 1548, and then things seemed to almost stabilize:  6/1/12 - 1606; 7/2/12 - 1592; 8/1/12 - 1599.  But suddenly on 8/21, gold prices started to climb, first to 1639, then to 1660, then to 1691 on 9/3; and now to 1728.

Meanwhile, EURUSD has jumped to 1.28 and further gains are expected.  It was at 1.22 on 8/1.

So what does this mean?  The dollar has devalued 7.5% against gold and about 5% against the euro since 8/1.  The only thing I can think of it that the market expects QE3 to happen very soon.

Could Spain break apart?

"In 1469, the crowns of the Christian kingdoms of Castile and Aragon were united by the marriage of Isabella I of Castile and Ferdinand II of Aragon."  Castile, in turn, is a result of the union of Galicia, Leon, Castille, and Navarra.  The kingdom of Aragon was made up of  Aragon and Catalan (Catalonia).  In addition to these, Granada was a Muslim state which corresponds to today's Andalusia.

Besides these there is also La Mancha, Murcia, and Valencia. La Mancha, which has as its capital Toledo, was part of the kingdom of Castile. Murcia became part of Castile in 1243.  Valencia was an independent country within the crown of Aragon.

Today, Spain is has the following autonomous communities: Catalonia, Galicia, Basque Country, Valencia, Canary Islands, Balearic Islands, Navarre, and Aragon.  It would be easier to mention the non-autonomous communities: Asturias (part of historic Leon), Castile and Leon, La Rioja, Cantabria (part of historic Castille), Madrid and La Mancha.

The autonomous communities have their own parliaments and regional governments. They are similar in some respects as Scotland is to the United Kingdom, and how Quebec is in regards to Canada. The autonomous communities may decide to secede from Spain and become independent members of the EU on their own.  This process has advanced the most in Basque Country and Catalonia. 

Basque is a separate language from Spanish, and is not based on Latin.  The Basque country collects its own taxes and has a credit rating better than Spain.  The Basque country, however, has only 3 million people and comprises only 21,000 sq. km., making it a very small country, but bigger than Luxembourg, Cyprus and Malta, which are EU countries.  The Basques have been granted almost all the attributes of self-government, and they would gain little by completely separating from Spain.

Catalonia has Barcelona as its capital.  Catalan is a romance language and thus is based on Latin, like French or Italian. Catalonia has a population of 7.5 million and an area of 32,000 sq. km., which is almost big enough to stand on its own.  It is about the size of Belgium, but with less people.  Unlike the Basques, Catalonia has not been given true autonomy by Spain, and thus continue to press the case for independence.

See: http://independentcatalonia.blogspot.com/  for more information.

Catalonia already has an internet domain name ".cat".  The economic crisis may provide an opportunity for Catalonia to become independent in the near future.

Who is John Galt?

Alternate history of the debt

The national debt is huge now, but is actually growing slowly since about May 1, 2012.  When was the last time it grew at this slow of a pace?

Well, I haven't look at every month, but I think the last time in which the debt grew this slowly was May 2008.  The national debt on 5/30/2008 was $9389 bn.

If it continued at the rate of 0.579%/mo (which is the rate at which it will double in 10 years), the national debt would look like the following:
9/30/2008   $9,608 bn (actual $10,025 bn)
9/30/2009 $10,298 bn (actual $11,910 bn)
9/30/2010 $11,036 bn (actual $13,562 bn)
9/30/2011 $11,828 bn (actual $14,790 bn)
8/31/2012 $12,604 bn (actual $16,016 bn)

So we have borrowed $3.4 trillion more than if we had borrowed at the slower pace.  What do we have to show for the money?

National Debt exceeds $16 trillion

The national debt is now at $16,016 bn, as of 8/31/12.  This is a huge number, but it increased only $83 bn last month, which is below the 0.579% /mo increase which I see as a danger sign.

This is the 4th straight month that the increase was less than that level, giving hope that it will continue at a lower level.  The $15 tn level was reached on 11/15/2011, and $14 tn was reached on 12/31/2010. $13 tn was reached on 6/1/2010. 

I expect it to hit $17 tn about 9/30/2013.

Top 30 Cities in 2025

Here is my list of the top 30 cities in 2025.  Comparisons to the Top 25 cities currently are in brackets.

1. Tokyo [1]
2. Hong Kong/Shenzhen/Guangzhou/Foshan/Dongguan [4]
3. Shanghai/Suzhou/Nanjing [2]
4. Beijing/Tianjin [6]
5. New York [3]
6. Los Angeles [5]
7. London [10]
8. Paris [7]
9. Sao Paulo [-]
10. Osaka [11]
11. Moscow [-]
12. Chicago [9]
13. Rhine-Ruhr [13]
14. San Francisco/San Jose [12]
15. Washington/Baltimore [17]
16. Houston [15]
17. Seoul [8]
18. Dallas [18]
19. Istanbul [-]
20. Mexico City [-]
21. Chongqing [-]
22. Boston [16]
23. Singapore [-]
24. Nagoya [14]
25. Randstad [19]
26. Philadelphia [20]
27. Wuhan [-]
28. Sydney [22]
29. Toronto [23]
30. Atlanta [25]

 Honorable Mention: Buenos Aires, Miami, Milan, Rio de Janiero, Melbourne

Note:  I don't have good data for Seoul, Osaka, or Nagoya, and the above includes wild guesses. These are all huge cities in prosperous nations that keep getting overlooked.

The 17.6 year stock market cycle

This is a theory that stocks will go up for about 17.6 years and then stay flat for the next 17.6 years.  It is based on historical data and was discovered by Art Cashin.

The cycle starts about 1912, when the market went up until 1930.
From 1930 to 1948 it stayed flat.
From 1948 to 1965 it went up.
From 1965 to 1982 it stayed flat.
From 1982 to 2000 it went up.
Now we are in a "flat" cycle until 2018.