Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Cycles

From http://goldsilverworlds.com/investing/2013-start-of-seismic-shifts-in-money-metals-markets/

Stocks & Bonds 

Charles Nenner Research (source)
Stocks should peak in mid-2013 and fall until about 2020.  Similarly, bonds should peak in the summer of 2013 and fall thereafter for 20 years.  He bases his conclusions entirely on cycle research.  He expects the Dow to fall to around 5,000 by 2018 – 2020.
Kress Cycles by Clif Droke (source)
The major 120 year cycle plus all minor cycles trend down into late 2014.  The stock market should decline hard into late 2014.
Elliott Wave Cycles by Robert Prechter (source)
He believes that the stock market has peaked and has entered a generational bear-market.  He anticipates a crash low in the market around 2016 – 2017.
Market Energy Wave (source)
He sees a 36 year cycle in stock markets that is peaking in mid-2013 and down 2013 – 2016. “… the controlling energy wave is scheduled to flip back to negative on July 19 of this year.” Equity markets should drop 25 – 50%.
Armstrong Economics (source)
His economic confidence model projects a peak in confidence in August 2013, a bottom in September 2014, and another peak in October 2015.  The decline into January 2020 should be severe.  He expects a world-wide crash and contraction in economies from 2015 – 2020.
Cycles per Charles Hugh Smith (source)
He discusses four long-term cycles that bottom roughly in the 2010 – 2020 period.  They are:  Credit expansion/contraction cycle;  Price inflation/wage cycle; Generational cycle;  and Peak oil extraction cycle.
Harry Dent – Demographics (source)
Stock prices should drop, on average for the balance of this decade.  Demographic cycles in the United States (and elsewhere) indicate a contraction in real terms for most of this decade.
Sun Spot Cycles
They are due to peak in the summer of 2013 and decline into 2019.  Market tops often occur at or near peaks in sun spots.  This is an approximate 10 – 13 year cycle.  Economic and political upheavals tend to occur at or near the peak of sun spot cycles.
Lucky 13
1987, 2000, and 2013 marked stock market highs, all 13 years apart.

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